市場新聞與洞察
透過專家洞察、新聞與技術分析,助你領先市場,制定交易決策。

石油市场习惯于在停止结算之前就看上去已经定下来了。这就是现在的设置。
随着伊朗周边冲突的加剧,霍尔木兹海峡的交通量急剧下降,越来越多的船只因关闭AIS或自动识别系统而陷入黑暗,这些信号通常显示船只在哪里移动。霍尔木兹不只是另一条航道。它是世界上最重要的能源阻塞点之一,因此,当能见度开始消失时,供应风险就会回到对话的中心。
为什么现在这很重要
这很重要,有两个原因。
头条新闻是一回事。市场影响是另一回事。石油不仅关乎有多少桶,还关系到这些桶能否流动,谁愿意为它们投保,买家准备等待多长时间,以及交易者认为他们需要在多大风险的基础上定价。
目前,有三件事同时发生冲突:航运中断、外交脆弱以及市场已经严重倾向于一个方向。这种组合可以使布伦特原油的走势比基本面本身通常所暗示的要快。
是什么推动了这一举动
1 供应能见度恶化
第一个驱动程序很简单。市场看得更少,这往往会让市场更加紧张。
通过霍尔木兹的过境量急剧下降,而越来越多的交通量涉及不再广播标准跟踪信号的船只。简而言之,正常通过重要走廊的船只越来越少,越来越多的活动也变得越来越难以追踪。这并不自动意味着供应即将崩溃。但这确实意味着不确定性正在上升。
2 伊朗的储存缓冲区可能有限
第二个驱动因素是伊朗的出口和储存限制。
陆上储存容量估计约为4000万桶,市场正在关注有人所说的16天红线。到那时,长期的出口中断可能会开始迫使减产,以避免对储油库造成损害。对于新读者来说,要点很简单。如果石油不能储存足够长的时间,问题可能不再是出口延迟,而是开始成为真正的供应问题。
3 定位可以放大移动
第三个驱动因素是定位,这只是市场简写,说明在下一步行动发生之前交易者已经如何进行设置。
在这种情况下,投机性原油头寸显得严重片面。这很重要,因为当市场向一个方向倾斜得太远时,触发急剧调整并不需要太多时间。新的地缘政治冲击可能迫使交易者迅速采取行动,而一旦开始,价格的上涨幅度可能会超过单纯基础新闻所能证明的合理性。
为什么市场在乎
石油冲击很少能在能源市场内得到控制。
较高的原油价格可能会开始出现在运费、制造业和家庭能源账单中。这意味着通货膨胀预期可能会再次开始攀升。各国央行已经在努力管理粘性通货膨胀和疲软增长之间的艰难平衡,因此石油价格上涨会使这项工作变得更加艰难。
这不仅仅是一个关于石油生产商获得提振的故事。当能源成本上升时,航空公司、运输公司和其他对燃料敏感的企业可能会迅速承受压力。如果石油价格上涨使通货膨胀保持强于预期,则更广泛的股市可能还必须重新考虑政策前景。
连锁反应远不止石油
还有一个货币角度,它不如最初出现的那么简单。
当原材料价格上涨时,与大宗商品挂钩的货币,例如澳元,通常会获得支撑。但是这种关系不是自动的。如果石油价格因为全球需求改善而攀升,那可能会有所帮助。如果由于地缘政治风险激增而攀升,则市场可能会转向避险模式,即使大宗商品价格上涨,这也可能打压澳元。
这就是让这种举动比乍一看更有趣的原因。同样的石油涨势可以支撑市场的一个部分,同时给另一部分带来压力。
框架中的资产和名称
布伦特原油仍然是广泛供应风险中最明显的解读。如果交易者想要最简洁的头条新闻表达,通常是他们首先看的地方。
- 埃克森美孚是画面中最明显的名字之一。油价上涨可以支撑已实现的销售价格和短期的盈利势头,尽管这从来都不像石油上涨、囤积那么简单。成本、生产结构和更广泛的情绪仍然很重要。
- NexTera Energy 又增加了一层。这个故事不仅仅是关于化石燃料的。当能源安全成为一个更大的问题时,国内电力弹性、电网投资和替代发电的理由也将得到加强。
- 澳元/美元是另一个值得关注的市场。澳大利亚与大宗商品周期密切相关,因此原材料价格走强有时可以支撑该货币。但是,如果市场对恐惧的反应大于对增长的反应,那么通常的顺风可能不会成立。
对于新读者来说,关键是石油走势不会以整齐的、可预测的线条在市场中传播。它们不均匀地向外波动,帮助某些资产,给其他资产施加压力,有时两者兼而有之。
可能会出什么问题
强烈的叙述与单向交易不同。
停火可以比预期更快地稳定航运。欧佩克+可以通过提高产量来抵消部分紧张局势。来自中国的需求数据可能会令人失望,将焦点转移到消费疲软而不是供应受限上。而且,如果地缘政治溢价消退,石油回落的速度可能比当前情绪所暗示的要快。
对于新读者来说,要点很简单。石油涨势可以是真实的,但不是永久性的。短期内,中断风险可能证明此举是合理的,然后如果这些风险缓解或需求疲软,则迅速逆转。
市场不再孤立地对石油进行定价。这是定价可见性、运输安全性以及供应中断蔓延到通货膨胀、货币和更广泛的风险情绪中的风险。
这就是为什么Hormuz很重要,即使对于从未自己交易过一桶原油的读者来说也是如此。


Netflix reported their Q1 earnings after the closing bell on Tuesday. The online streaming service reported total revenue of $7.16 billion in Q1 beating analyst forecast of $5.77 billion. Earnings per share were reported at $3.75 vs. $2.98 estimate.
With both revenue and earnings per share higher than analysts' expectations, the new paid subscriber additions came in way below analysts' forecast of 6.29 million – at 3.98 million. The latest dip in new additions could be the beginning of a further slowdown in new subscribers as lockdown eases around the world and people return to normality. ''Revenue grew 24% year over year and was in line with our beginning of quarter forecast while operating profit and margin reached all-time highs. We finished Q1’21 with 208m paid memberships, up 14% year over year, but below our guidance forecast of 210m paid memberships.
We believe paid membership growth slowed due to the big Covid-19 pull forward in 2020 and a lighter content slate in the first half of this year, due to Covid-19 production delays. We continue to anticipate a strong second half with the return of new seasons of some of our biggest hits and an exciting film lineup. In the short-term, there is some uncertainty from Covid-19; in the long-term, the rise of streaming to replace linear TV around the world is the clear trend in entertainment,'' Netflix said in a letter to investors following the announcement.
Shares of Netflix was down by around 9% in post-market on Tuesday following the latest numbers, down at $495 per share after ending the trading day a $549.57 per share. Netflix Source: TradingView You can trade Netflix (NFLX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information.
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Last week marked a significant milestone for NIO when it produced its 100,000 th electric vehicle. The latest development also caught the eye of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, to which he responded: ''Congrats to NIO. That is a tough milestone.'' On Thursday, NIO officially confirmed its partnership with Sinopec – taking a major step forward in the company’s future.
Rumours about a potential partnership between the two companies first emerged back in February, when Sinopec Chairman Zhang Yuzhuo visited NIO’s battery swap station. About Sinopec Sinopec is the largest supplier of refined oil products and petrochemicals as well as the second-largest oil and gas producer in China. It was founded on 25 th February 2000 in Beijing, China and has over 240,000 employees globally.
The company has more than 30,000 gas stations – second highest in the world. The partnership NIO’s statement on the partnership: ''The partnership between Sinopec and NIO is an important milestone for further developing China's smart EV industry, a concrete measure to help achieve peak carbon emissions and achieve carbon neutrality, a key step in developing global, green, and innovative transportation initiatives and innovations.'' Following the announcement, NIO and Sinopec also unveiled the NIO Power Swap Station 2.0 at Sinopec's Chaoying Station in Beijing, China. The share price of NIO has taken a hit in recent months after reaching record highs back in February when it climbed above $60 per share.
It was down by around 5% on Thursday following the announcement, trading at around $34 per share. Worth noting that it was trading at $3.20 per share same time last year, a 995% increase at the current share price. NIO Source: TradingView You can trade NIO (NIO) and many other stocks from the ASX, NYSE, and the NASDAQ with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Click here for more information. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.


JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs reported their Q1 earnings before the opening bell on Wednesday – both beating analysts' forecasts. JP Morgan & Co JPMorgan reported a total revenue of $32.3 billion (up by 14.3% year-on-year) in Q1, above analysts' forecast of $30.52 billion. Earnings per share were reported at $4.50 vs. $3.05 estimate.
Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO, commented on Q1 results: ''JPMorgan Chase earned $14.3 billion in net income reflecting strong underlying performance across our businesses, partially driven by a rapidly improving economy. These results include a benefit from credit reserve releases of $5.2 billion that we do not consider core or recurring profits. We believe our credit reserves of $26 billion are appropriate and prudent, all things considered.'' ''With all of the stimulus spending, potential infrastructure spending, continued Quantitative Easing, strong consumer and business balance sheets and euphoria around the potential end of the pandemic, we believe that the economy has the potential to have extremely robust, multi-year growth.
This growth can benefit all Americans, particularly those who suffered the most during this pandemic. If all of the government programs are spent wisely and efficiently, focusing on actual outcomes, the benefits will be more widely shared, economic growth will be more sustainable and future problems, like inflation and too much debt, will be reduced.'' Shares of JPMorgan were down by around 1.19% in pre-market on Wednesday following the latest earnings numbers, trading at around $152.23. The share price is up by around 22% year-to-date.
JPMorgan Chase & Co Source: TradingView Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs also reported strong numbers with revenue of $17.7 billion (up by 102.5% year-on-year) in Q1, way higher than analysts' estimate of $12.6 billion. Earnings per share at $18.60, above the forecast of $10.22 per share. ''We have been working hard alongside our clients in preparation for a world beyond the pandemic and a more stable economic environment,'' Goldman Sachs CEO, David Solomon said in the earnings release. ''Our businesses remain very well positioned to help our clients reposition for the recovery, and that strength is reflected in the record revenues and earnings achieved this quarter.'' Goldman Sachs The share price of Goldman Sachs trading higher after the Q1 results, up by around 4% at $343 per share. The stock is up by 30% year-to-date.
Source: TradingView You can trade JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.

It has been an eventful week over in the United States this week. Some of the major companies, including Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, and Tesla announced their latest earnings. The Federal Reserve kept their interest rates unchanged at 0.25%.
We also saw the US GDP expand by 4% in Q4 of 2020. However, these were not the most talked-about events this week. Major hedge-funds on Wall Street were left with huge losses after it bet against a struggling American gaming company GameStop by short-selling its shares.
What is short-selling? Short-selling is when an investor speculates that a stock or security will fall in price in the future. The investor borrows the stock or security from a broker and immediately sells it with the hope of buying it back at a lower price.
Gains from short selling are limited as a stock can only go to 0. The losses do not have a cap as there is no limit as to how high a stock’s price may jump. What happened?
The ''short'' bet did not pay off for the big players on Wall Street after amateur traders rallied together on social media sites to take on the hedge-funds and pump the price of gaming retailer GameStop to new levels. The share price of the GameStop has surged by over 1,550% this year alone after trading at $17 at the beginning of January. The stock ended the trading day at the $193 level on Thursday, rising up to the $261 level in post-market hours.
The White House said it was ''monitoring'' the latest price surge in GameStop and other stocks. Hedge-funds and others that bet against GameStop have collectively lost more than $5bn, according to data analytics company S3. Source: TradingView It is an interesting time on Wall Street and it is definitely worth keeping an eye on the future developments moving forward.

One of the must-watch economic events this week will be the Bank of Canada interest rate decision. The decision is scheduled to be announced on Wednesday at 14:00 PM London time. It will be the first meeting since the new United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).
The bank has increased its interest rates four times since July of last year, so will there be another hike? Why Is The Announcement Important? A bank interest rate is a rate at which a countries central bank lends money to local banks.
The interest rate is charged by nations central or federal bank on loans advances to control the money supply in the economy and the banking sector. The Bank of Canada has an inflation target of 1% to 2% (currently 2.8%), and the interest rates are changed accordingly to meet the target. Therefore, the Bank of Canada’s and other central bank rate decisions can have a significant impact on the financial markets.
Expectations In a recent speech, Stephen Poloz, the Governor of Bank of Canada said he continues to believe gradually increasing interest rates is the right approach. According to the latest forecasts, it is highly anticipated that the Bank of Canada will raise its interest rates in the upcoming meeting from 1.5% to 1.75%, potentially a fifth rate hike since July 2017. "We expect the Bank to hike this month, in addition to hiking four more times in 2019, as the BoC’s measure of core inflation touched 2.0% for the first time since 2012 in August and is facing increased capacity constraints," said Daniel Hui, an analyst at J.P. Morgan. "This [October] hike was already well anticipated by markets even before the USMCA breakthrough (80% priced before, 90%+ priced now), so it is the forward-looking rhetoric that might imply future pace and terminal rate that is more important for markets to monitor," says Hui.
All eyes will be on the decision on Wednesday. This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.
Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Go Markets MT4, Google, Datawrapper

The Buraeu of Labor Statistics have released the latest jobs report for April. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers. The total non-farm payroll employment increased by 263,000 the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, beating the forecast of 190,000. Biggest job gains were in professional and business services, construction, health care, and social assistance. Professional and business services added 76,000 Construction added 33,000 Employment in health grew by 27,000 Social assistance added 26,000 The unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since December 1969 to 3.6% beating the forecast of 3.8%.
The number of unemployed persons decreased by 387,000 to 5.8 million. The average hourly earnings remained unchanged at 3.2%, below the forecast of 3.3%. USDCAD – Hourly USDJPY – Hourly The next US jobs report is on 7th June.
This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.
Sources: Go Markets MT4, Google, Datawrapper,
