市場新聞與洞察
透過專家洞察、新聞與技術分析,助你領先市場,制定交易決策。

石油市场习惯于在停止结算之前就看上去已经定下来了。这就是现在的设置。
随着伊朗周边冲突的加剧,霍尔木兹海峡的交通量急剧下降,越来越多的船只因关闭AIS或自动识别系统而陷入黑暗,这些信号通常显示船只在哪里移动。霍尔木兹不只是另一条航道。它是世界上最重要的能源阻塞点之一,因此,当能见度开始消失时,供应风险就会回到对话的中心。
为什么现在这很重要
这很重要,有两个原因。
头条新闻是一回事。市场影响是另一回事。石油不仅关乎有多少桶,还关系到这些桶能否流动,谁愿意为它们投保,买家准备等待多长时间,以及交易者认为他们需要在多大风险的基础上定价。
目前,有三件事同时发生冲突:航运中断、外交脆弱以及市场已经严重倾向于一个方向。这种组合可以使布伦特原油的走势比基本面本身通常所暗示的要快。
是什么推动了这一举动
1 供应能见度恶化
第一个驱动程序很简单。市场看得更少,这往往会让市场更加紧张。
通过霍尔木兹的过境量急剧下降,而越来越多的交通量涉及不再广播标准跟踪信号的船只。简而言之,正常通过重要走廊的船只越来越少,越来越多的活动也变得越来越难以追踪。这并不自动意味着供应即将崩溃。但这确实意味着不确定性正在上升。
2 伊朗的储存缓冲区可能有限
第二个驱动因素是伊朗的出口和储存限制。
陆上储存容量估计约为4000万桶,市场正在关注有人所说的16天红线。到那时,长期的出口中断可能会开始迫使减产,以避免对储油库造成损害。对于新读者来说,要点很简单。如果石油不能储存足够长的时间,问题可能不再是出口延迟,而是开始成为真正的供应问题。
3 定位可以放大移动
第三个驱动因素是定位,这只是市场简写,说明在下一步行动发生之前交易者已经如何进行设置。
在这种情况下,投机性原油头寸显得严重片面。这很重要,因为当市场向一个方向倾斜得太远时,触发急剧调整并不需要太多时间。新的地缘政治冲击可能迫使交易者迅速采取行动,而一旦开始,价格的上涨幅度可能会超过单纯基础新闻所能证明的合理性。
为什么市场在乎
石油冲击很少能在能源市场内得到控制。
较高的原油价格可能会开始出现在运费、制造业和家庭能源账单中。这意味着通货膨胀预期可能会再次开始攀升。各国央行已经在努力管理粘性通货膨胀和疲软增长之间的艰难平衡,因此石油价格上涨会使这项工作变得更加艰难。
这不仅仅是一个关于石油生产商获得提振的故事。当能源成本上升时,航空公司、运输公司和其他对燃料敏感的企业可能会迅速承受压力。如果石油价格上涨使通货膨胀保持强于预期,则更广泛的股市可能还必须重新考虑政策前景。
连锁反应远不止石油
还有一个货币角度,它不如最初出现的那么简单。
当原材料价格上涨时,与大宗商品挂钩的货币,例如澳元,通常会获得支撑。但是这种关系不是自动的。如果石油价格因为全球需求改善而攀升,那可能会有所帮助。如果由于地缘政治风险激增而攀升,则市场可能会转向避险模式,即使大宗商品价格上涨,这也可能打压澳元。
这就是让这种举动比乍一看更有趣的原因。同样的石油涨势可以支撑市场的一个部分,同时给另一部分带来压力。
框架中的资产和名称
布伦特原油仍然是广泛供应风险中最明显的解读。如果交易者想要最简洁的头条新闻表达,通常是他们首先看的地方。
- 埃克森美孚是画面中最明显的名字之一。油价上涨可以支撑已实现的销售价格和短期的盈利势头,尽管这从来都不像石油上涨、囤积那么简单。成本、生产结构和更广泛的情绪仍然很重要。
- NexTera Energy 又增加了一层。这个故事不仅仅是关于化石燃料的。当能源安全成为一个更大的问题时,国内电力弹性、电网投资和替代发电的理由也将得到加强。
- 澳元/美元是另一个值得关注的市场。澳大利亚与大宗商品周期密切相关,因此原材料价格走强有时可以支撑该货币。但是,如果市场对恐惧的反应大于对增长的反应,那么通常的顺风可能不会成立。
对于新读者来说,关键是石油走势不会以整齐的、可预测的线条在市场中传播。它们不均匀地向外波动,帮助某些资产,给其他资产施加压力,有时两者兼而有之。
可能会出什么问题
强烈的叙述与单向交易不同。
停火可以比预期更快地稳定航运。欧佩克+可以通过提高产量来抵消部分紧张局势。来自中国的需求数据可能会令人失望,将焦点转移到消费疲软而不是供应受限上。而且,如果地缘政治溢价消退,石油回落的速度可能比当前情绪所暗示的要快。
对于新读者来说,要点很简单。石油涨势可以是真实的,但不是永久性的。短期内,中断风险可能证明此举是合理的,然后如果这些风险缓解或需求疲软,则迅速逆转。
市场不再孤立地对石油进行定价。这是定价可见性、运输安全性以及供应中断蔓延到通货膨胀、货币和更广泛的风险情绪中的风险。
这就是为什么Hormuz很重要,即使对于从未自己交易过一桶原油的读者来说也是如此。


Goldman Sachs reported its latest financial results for the previous quarter before the US market open on Tuesday. Let’s take a closer look at the key numbers. The company reported higher than expected revenue for Q4 2021 of $12.639 billion vs. $12.044 billion estimate.
Earnings per share (EPS) at $10.81 per share in Q4 2021, below Wall Street analyst expectations of $11.77 per share. In 2021, Goldman Sachs generated record net revenues of $59.34 billion, record net earnings of $21.64 billion and record diluted EPS of $59.45 – all significantly surpassing previous records. David Solomon, Chairman and CEO commented on last year’s performance: ''2021 was a record year for Goldman Sachs.
The firm’s extraordinary performance is a testament to the strength of our client franchise and people. Moving forward, our leadership team remains committed to growing Goldman Sachs, diversifying our businesses and delivering strong returns for shareholders.'' Goldman Sachs chart (1Y) Shares of Goldman tumbled on Tuesday following the latest results, down by around 7%. The stock is up by 19% in the last year at $350.60 per share.
Goldman Sachs is the 117 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $127.07 billion. You can trade Goldman Sachs (GS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Goldman Sachs, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap


Bank of America announced its 2021 Q4 financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Wednesday. World’s 2 nd largest bank reported total revenue of $22.06 billion, falling short of analyst estimate of $22.18 billion. Earnings per share at $0.82 a share in the previous quarter, above analyst forecast of $0.77 a share.
Chairman and CEO, Brian Moynihan commented on the latest results: "Our fourth-quarter results were driven by strong organic growth, record levels of digital engagement, and an improving economy. We grew loans by $51 billion and added $100 billion of deposits during the quarter, further strengthening our position as the leader in retail deposits." "We earned a record $32 billion in 2021, with every business line solidly contributing. In Consumer, we added millions of new credit card accounts and nearly a million net new checking accounts as we continued to demonstrate the value we provide through our physical and digital capabilities.
Wealth Management had record client flows and the strongest client acquisition numbers since before the pandemic. Investment Banking had its best year ever and Global Markets had its highest sales and trading revenue in a decade, led by record Equities performance as we invested in the business." "We also continued to support our communities, helping them address some of society’s biggest challenges, including the environment, the pandemic, racial equality and economic opportunity. I want to thank our talented teammates across the globe for all their work over the past year," he added.
Bank of America chart (1Y) Share price of Bank of America little changed during the trading day on Wednesday. The stock is up by 45% in the past year at $46.58 per share. Bank of America is the 20 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $383.21 billion.
You can trade Bank of America (BAC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Bank of America, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap

NIO Inc. (NIO) reported its latest delivery numbers for November on Wednesday, setting a new monthly following disappointing results in October. The Chinese electric vehicle company delivered 10,878 cars last month – an increase of 105.6% year-over-year. The deliveries in November consisted of: 2,683 ES8s – the company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV 4,713 ES6s – the company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV 3,482 EC6s – the company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV NIO has delivered a total of 80,940 cars in 2021 and 156,581 in total as of 30 th November, 2021.
NIO Inc. Chart (1Y) Shares of NIO were trading higher on Wednesday following the latest delivery numbers, up by around 2% on the day. The stock is down by 16.61% in the past year at $40.19 a share.
NIO is the 13 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $63.79 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information.
Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: NIO, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap

Last week, NIO announced that they have entered into a strategic agreement with Shell, the largest gasoline retailer in the world. The latest move is a boost for NIO to further establish themselves in the electric vehicle industry. The agreement includes plans to construct and operate battery charging and swapping facilities in China and Europe.
NIO and Shell plan to install 100 battery swapping stations in China by 2025 and start to construct and operate pilot stations in Europe from next year. Both companies will also explore collaboration opportunities in battery asset management, fleet management, membership system, home charging services, advanced battery charging and swapping technology development, and construction of charging facilities. William Li, Founder, Chairman, CEO of NIO commented on the agreement: ''The cooperation demonstrates Shell’s determination to accelerate the energy transition and commitment to contribute to sustainable development globally.
We believe that the cooperation between NIO and Shell will bring better services and experience to electric vehicle users worldwide.'' István Kapitány, global executive vice president of Shell Mobility said: "Decarbonization is a global challenge that requires broad-reaching, multi-faceted global solutions. This is the most exciting thing about our new partnership with NIO—the breadth of the collaboration and the value we can offer our EV customers together, both in Europe and in China. Together, we'll be working to improve every aspect of the EV experience.
This means we’ll offer Shell Recharge high-speed charging at NIO locations and make battery swap available at convenient Shell locations while also offering NIO customers our best home and business charging solutions." Shell has service stations in nearly 46,000 locations in 80 markets around the world. The company is planning to operate more than 500,000 electric vehicle charge points globally by 2025. NIO Inc.
Chart (1Y) Share price of NIO is down by 19.93% in the past year at $40.46 per share. NIO is the 12 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $63.20 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Click here for more information. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: NIO, Shell, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap


It’s set to be busy one over in the United States this week with some of the world’s largest companies, including Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and Alphabet due to report their Q1 earnings. Up first – Tesla. World’s largest electric vehicle maker reported their results after the closing bell on Monday.
Elon Musk’s Tesla reported total revenue of $10.39 billion in Q1 above analyst forecast of $10.29 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $0.93 above $0.78 expected. Net profit reached $438 million in Q1 – the highest quarterly number ever for the company. "In Q1, we achieved our highest ever vehicle production and deliveries.
This was in spite of multiple challenges, including seasonality, supply chain instability and the transition to the new Model S and Model X. Our GAAP net income reached $438M, and our non-GAAP net income surpassed $1B for the first time in our history." Earlier in the month, the company reported record delivery numbers with 184,800 vehicles delivered in the first 3 months of 2021 – a 109% improvement from Q1 in 2020. Tesla are planning a 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries in the next few years. "Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries.
In some years we may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021," Tesla said in a statement. "The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency and capacity and stability of the supply chain." Shares of Tesla trading lower following the latest numbers, down by 1.83% post-market after ending the trading day on Monday at $738.20 per share. Share price is up by over 4% year-to-date. Total market cap currently stands at over $722 billion, making it the 8 th largest company in the world.
Tesla Source: TradingView You can trade Tesla (TSLA) and many other stocks from the ASX, NYSE, and the NASDAQ with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.


Intel, the US technology giant reported its Q1 earnings after the closing bell on Thursday. The company reported revenue of $18.57 billion, above analyst forecast of $17.90 billion. Earnings per share were at $1.39, also beating analyst expectations of $1.15 per share.
Intel’s data-centre group revenue fell by over 20% year-over-year to $5.56 billion, below analyst forecast of $5.89 billion. ''Intel delivered strong first-quarter results driven by exceptional demand for our leadership products and outstanding execution by our team. The response to our new IDM 2.0 strategy has been extraordinary, our product roadmap is gaining momentum, and we’re rapidly progressing our plans with a re-invigorated focus on innovation and execution,'' said Pat Gelsinger, Intel CEO. ''This is a pivotal year for Intel. We are setting our strategic foundation and investing to accelerate our trajectory and capitalize on the explosive growth in semiconductors that power our increasingly digital world.'' Despite the earnings beat, the share price of Intel was trading lower in post-market – down by 2.51%.
The stock is up by 25% year-to-date after ending the trading day on Thursday at $62.57 per share. Intel Source: TradingView Intel is the world's largest semiconductor chip maker by revenue. The company is headquartered in California, US and has over 110,000 employees worldwide.
It supplies microprocessors for computer manufacturers such as Dell and HP. You can trade Intel (INTC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information.
Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.
