市場新聞與洞察
透過專家洞察、新聞與技術分析,助你領先市場,制定交易決策。

石油市场习惯于在停止结算之前就看上去已经定下来了。这就是现在的设置。
随着伊朗周边冲突的加剧,霍尔木兹海峡的交通量急剧下降,越来越多的船只因关闭AIS或自动识别系统而陷入黑暗,这些信号通常显示船只在哪里移动。霍尔木兹不只是另一条航道。它是世界上最重要的能源阻塞点之一,因此,当能见度开始消失时,供应风险就会回到对话的中心。
为什么现在这很重要
这很重要,有两个原因。
头条新闻是一回事。市场影响是另一回事。石油不仅关乎有多少桶,还关系到这些桶能否流动,谁愿意为它们投保,买家准备等待多长时间,以及交易者认为他们需要在多大风险的基础上定价。
目前,有三件事同时发生冲突:航运中断、外交脆弱以及市场已经严重倾向于一个方向。这种组合可以使布伦特原油的走势比基本面本身通常所暗示的要快。
是什么推动了这一举动
1 供应能见度恶化
第一个驱动程序很简单。市场看得更少,这往往会让市场更加紧张。
通过霍尔木兹的过境量急剧下降,而越来越多的交通量涉及不再广播标准跟踪信号的船只。简而言之,正常通过重要走廊的船只越来越少,越来越多的活动也变得越来越难以追踪。这并不自动意味着供应即将崩溃。但这确实意味着不确定性正在上升。
2 伊朗的储存缓冲区可能有限
第二个驱动因素是伊朗的出口和储存限制。
陆上储存容量估计约为4000万桶,市场正在关注有人所说的16天红线。到那时,长期的出口中断可能会开始迫使减产,以避免对储油库造成损害。对于新读者来说,要点很简单。如果石油不能储存足够长的时间,问题可能不再是出口延迟,而是开始成为真正的供应问题。
3 定位可以放大移动
第三个驱动因素是定位,这只是市场简写,说明在下一步行动发生之前交易者已经如何进行设置。
在这种情况下,投机性原油头寸显得严重片面。这很重要,因为当市场向一个方向倾斜得太远时,触发急剧调整并不需要太多时间。新的地缘政治冲击可能迫使交易者迅速采取行动,而一旦开始,价格的上涨幅度可能会超过单纯基础新闻所能证明的合理性。
为什么市场在乎
石油冲击很少能在能源市场内得到控制。
较高的原油价格可能会开始出现在运费、制造业和家庭能源账单中。这意味着通货膨胀预期可能会再次开始攀升。各国央行已经在努力管理粘性通货膨胀和疲软增长之间的艰难平衡,因此石油价格上涨会使这项工作变得更加艰难。
这不仅仅是一个关于石油生产商获得提振的故事。当能源成本上升时,航空公司、运输公司和其他对燃料敏感的企业可能会迅速承受压力。如果石油价格上涨使通货膨胀保持强于预期,则更广泛的股市可能还必须重新考虑政策前景。
连锁反应远不止石油
还有一个货币角度,它不如最初出现的那么简单。
当原材料价格上涨时,与大宗商品挂钩的货币,例如澳元,通常会获得支撑。但是这种关系不是自动的。如果石油价格因为全球需求改善而攀升,那可能会有所帮助。如果由于地缘政治风险激增而攀升,则市场可能会转向避险模式,即使大宗商品价格上涨,这也可能打压澳元。
这就是让这种举动比乍一看更有趣的原因。同样的石油涨势可以支撑市场的一个部分,同时给另一部分带来压力。
框架中的资产和名称
布伦特原油仍然是广泛供应风险中最明显的解读。如果交易者想要最简洁的头条新闻表达,通常是他们首先看的地方。
- 埃克森美孚是画面中最明显的名字之一。油价上涨可以支撑已实现的销售价格和短期的盈利势头,尽管这从来都不像石油上涨、囤积那么简单。成本、生产结构和更广泛的情绪仍然很重要。
- NexTera Energy 又增加了一层。这个故事不仅仅是关于化石燃料的。当能源安全成为一个更大的问题时,国内电力弹性、电网投资和替代发电的理由也将得到加强。
- 澳元/美元是另一个值得关注的市场。澳大利亚与大宗商品周期密切相关,因此原材料价格走强有时可以支撑该货币。但是,如果市场对恐惧的反应大于对增长的反应,那么通常的顺风可能不会成立。
对于新读者来说,关键是石油走势不会以整齐的、可预测的线条在市场中传播。它们不均匀地向外波动,帮助某些资产,给其他资产施加压力,有时两者兼而有之。
可能会出什么问题
强烈的叙述与单向交易不同。
停火可以比预期更快地稳定航运。欧佩克+可以通过提高产量来抵消部分紧张局势。来自中国的需求数据可能会令人失望,将焦点转移到消费疲软而不是供应受限上。而且,如果地缘政治溢价消退,石油回落的速度可能比当前情绪所暗示的要快。
对于新读者来说,要点很简单。石油涨势可以是真实的,但不是永久性的。短期内,中断风险可能证明此举是合理的,然后如果这些风险缓解或需求疲软,则迅速逆转。
市场不再孤立地对石油进行定价。这是定价可见性、运输安全性以及供应中断蔓延到通货膨胀、货币和更广泛的风险情绪中的风险。
这就是为什么Hormuz很重要,即使对于从未自己交易过一桶原油的读者来说也是如此。


Procter & Gamble Co. reported its second quarter fiscal year 2022 earnings before the opening bell on Wednesday. The US consumer goods company reported total revenue of $20.953 billion, above analyst forecast of $20.335 billion. Earnings per share at $1.66 per share vs. $1.65 a share expected by the analysts on Wall Street.
Jon Moeller, President and Chief Executive Officer commented on the latest results: ''We delivered very strong top-line growth and made sequential progress on earnings in the face of significant cost headwinds.'' ''These results keep us on track to deliver our earnings outlook and to raise estimates for sales growth, cash productivity and cash return to shareowners. Our focus remains on the strategies of superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and continually improving P&G’s organization structure and culture. These strategies have enabled us to build and sustain strong momentum.
They remain the right strategies to deliver balanced growth and value creation,'' Moeller added. Procter & Gamble Co. chart (1Y) Shares of Procter & Gamble trading higher after the latest results – up by around 4% during the trading day on Wednesday. The stock is up by 23% in the past year at $163.27 per share.
Procter & Gamble Co. is the 19 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $395.64 billion. You can trade Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Procter & Gamble Co., TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap


Netflix released its Q4 2021 financial results after the US market close on Thursday. The online streaming service company reported total revenue of $7.709 billion in the quarter, slightly falling short of analyst forecast of $7.71 billion. Earnings per share at $1.33 a share, above analyst estimate of $0.88 a share. ''We achieved several milestones in 2021: we had the biggest TV show of the year (Squid Game), our two biggest film releases of all time (Red Notice and Don’t Look Up) and Netflix was the most Emmy-winning and most nominated TV network and the most Oscar-winning and nominated movie studio of 2021.
Full year revenue of $30 billion grew 19% year over year while operating income of $6.2 billion rose 35% year over year. We finished Q4 with 222m paid memberships (with 8.3m paid net adds in Q4). Even in a world of uncertainty and increasing competition, we’re optimistic about our long-term growth prospects as streaming supplants linear entertainment around the world.
We're continually improving Netflix so that we can please our members, grow our share of leisure time and lead in this transition,'' the company wrote in a letter to shareholders following the latest results. Netflix chart (1Y) Share price of Netlfix traded lower on Thursday, down by 1.48% at $508.25 per share. The stock is down by 12% in the past year.
Netlfix is the 46 th largest company in the world, with a total market cap of $225.13 billion. You can trade Netflix (NFLX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Netlfix, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap


It is set to be a busy week over in the US with major companies, including General Electric, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, Tesla, Apple and McDonald's set to release their earnings figures for the previous quarter. International Business Machines Co. (IBM) released their latest figures after the closing bell on Monday. The US technology giant reported total revenue of $16.695 billion in Q4, beating analyst forecast of $15.96 billion.
Earnings per share reported at $3.35 per share, also beating Wall Street analyst estimates of $3.39 per share. Arvind Krishna, IBM chairman and CEO commented on the latest results following the announcement: "We increased revenue in the fourth quarter with hybrid cloud adoption driving growth in software and consulting." "Our fourth-quarter results give us confidence in our ability to deliver our objectives of sustained mid-single digit revenue growth and strong free cash flow in 2022," Krishna added. International Business Machines Co. chart (1Y) Shares of IBM little changed on Monday, ending the day down by 0.41%.
The stock is up by 8.64% in the past year at $128.82 per share. IBM is the 123 rd largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $115.46 billion. You can trade International Business Machines Co. (IBM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: International Business Machines Co., TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap


Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) released their previous quarter financial results before the market open on Tuesday. The US telecommunication giant topped Wall Street analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings per share. The company reported total revenue of $34.1 billion vs. $34.056 billion expected.
Earnings per share at $1.31 a share vs. $1.28 a share forecast. "Verizon delivered another strong earnings performance this quarter,” Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matt Ellis said about the latest results. Verizon Chairman and CEO Hans Vestberg commented on the past years results for the company and made predictions for the year ahead: "2021 was a transformational year for Verizon that will serve as a catalyst for us." "We delivered on all of our goals in 2021 and made great progress on our five paths of growth, finishing the year with strong operating and financial momentum. As we move into 2022, we have the necessary assets to realize our strategy that we laid out in 2019.
We are laser focused on executing our 5G strategy and providing value to our customers, shareholders, employees, and society, as 2022 will be the most exciting year yet for Verizon," he added. Verizon Communications Inc. chart (Weekly) Verizon share price little changed during the trading day on Tuesday, down by around 0.31%. The stock is down by around 9.63% in the past year at $52.84 a share.
Verizon Communications Inc. is the 45 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $220.99 billion. You can trade Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Verizon Communications Inc., TradingView, GO Markets MT5, CompaniesMarketCap


Tesla Inc. (TSLA) reported its Q4 2021 results after the market close on Wednesday. The world’s largest automaker exceeded analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings per share. The company reported total revenue of $17.719 billion in the fourth quarter vs. $17.132 billion expected.
Earnings per share reported at $2.54 vs. $2.36 per share forecast. Tesla produced 305,840 cars in the fourth quarter and deliveries reach 308,600 vehicles. Last year, Elon Musk’s company delivered a total of 930,422 vehicles. ''2021 was a breakthrough year for Tesla.
There should no longer be doubt about the viability and profitability of electric vehicles.'' ''After a successful 2021, our focus shifts to the future. We aim to increase our production as quickly as we can, not only through ramping production at new factories in Austin and Berlin, but also by maximizing output from our established factories in Fremont and Shanghai. We believe competitiveness in the EV market will be determined by the ability to add capacity across the supply chain and ramp production.'' ''While 2021 was a defining year for our company, we believe we are just at the very early stages of our journey.
Thank you for being part of it,'' Tesla said in a letter to shareholders. Tesla chart (Weekly) Share price of Tesla ended the trading day up by 2.07% on Wednesday at $936.70 a share. The stock is up by 8.48% in the past year.
Tesla is the 6 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $941.40 billion. You can trade Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Tesla Inc., TradingView, GO Markets MT5, CompaniesMarketCap


Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported its Q4 earnings before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. Let’s take a closer look at how the pharmaceutical giant performed in the previous quarter. The company reported total revenue of $24.804 billion in Q4 (up by 10.4% from the same period in 2020), below analyst forecast of $25.276 billion.
Earnings per share at $2.13 a share in the previous quarter (up by 14.5%, pretty much in line with analyst forecast of $2.12 a share. Joaquin Duato, Chief Executive Officer commented on the Q4 and 2021 results: ''Our 2021 performance reflects continued strength across all segments of our business. Guided by Our Credo, I am honoured to assume the role of CEO, leading our global teams in continuing our work to deliver life-changing solutions to consumers, patients, and health care providers.'' ''Given our strong results, financial profile, and innovative pipeline we are well positioned for success in 2022 and beyond,'' Duato added.
Johnson & Johnson chart (Monthly) Share price trading higher following the latest results, up by around 2% during the trading day on Tuesday at $166.66 per share. Johnson & Johnson is the 12 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $438.19 billion. You can trade Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Johnson & Johnson, TradingView, GO Markets MT5, CompaniesMarketCap
