市场资讯及洞察

Global indices finished relatively flat compared to recent day's price action on the back of failed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and the ECB decision to speed up the ceasing of stimulus support. All eyes were on the USA and their CPI figures which came in as expected with a rise of 0.8% for February and the 12-month figure increased by 7.9%. The Federal Reserve is still expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points next week in a bid to stifle inflation.

The Nasdaq dropped 0.95% and Dow Jones performed a little better only falling 0.34%. The S&P 500 performed similarly registering a 0.43% drop. The European markets were a little weaker with the FTSE finishing the day down 1.27% and the DAX coming off worse with a 2.93% drop.

The European Central Bank met on Thursday to discuss the early easing of its economic stimulus effort to combat inflation. The bank announced its plans to make an early exit from its asset purchasing which surprised some analysts who expected no change. The bank indicated that it is currently more concerned with the rise in inflation than the potential fallout from the conflict.

They did, however, leave room for policy changes should things change. Oil again fell with Brent Crude oil fell to $109.49 a 1.5% drop. Gold found some support near $2000 as it continues attracting investors and traders alike.

Major commodities continue to be trading at elevated levels even with some tapering overnight. Bitcoin had a big fall overnight dropping back below USD 40,000 to $39,285 a 6.37% drop at 10.20 pm GMT. On Wednesday BTC had spiked on the back of an executive order from Joe Biden that would potentially expand the adoption of cryptocurrency assets.

However, the general sentiment between more risk on assets and inflationary fears has sparked the drop back below $40,000. The AUD/USD performed well and has continued its recent rise, moving 0.49%. The move has been on the back of Australia’s healthy commodity industry and its geographical distance from the conflict.

The NZD also rose against the USD holding its recent highs at 68 cents to $1.00. The AUD/EUR had another strong night rising 1.27%. The EUR showed weakness after the ECB’s policy shift and the lack of progression from the Russian and Ukraine peace talks and dropped 0.82% against the USD.

The global markets had a strong night of trading on the back of renewed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Equity indices were up, whilst commodities took a breather from their recent highs. Reports coming out of Europe indicated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has cooled off on the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO and is open to discussing Russia’s demand for neutrality.

This may pave the way out of the conflict to which the market reacted positively. The US market had a strong night pulling back some of the previous losses. The Nasdaq closed 3.59% higher and the Dow Jones finished 2.00% higher.

The S&P 500 also closed up 2.57%. In Europe the DAX had a large rise moving up 7.92%. The FTSE also performed well finishing up 3.25%.

Commodities dropped overnight as Oil took a breather with Brent Crude sliding 12% to less than $110 a barrel, its steepest decline in two years. The UAE’s ambassador to the UN outlined plans to increase oil production and has encouraged OPEC to also increase supply. Gold also dipped, falling back below $2000 an ounce.

Benchmark wheat futures were down 6.6% after soaring to a multiyear high the day before. Wheat prices are still up 50% from the start of the year. Russia and Ukraine also issued warnings over the potential disruptions to gas supplies in western Europe with neither side willing to claim responsibility which may impact gas prices going forward.

Bitcoin had a strong day with the BTC/USD climbing 7.93%. Ethereum also had a nice rise with ETH/USD rising by 4.36% on the back of the more positive sentiment and move back to higher risk investments. FOREX Along with commodity prices, the USD was also down against most major currencies.

The EUR performed strongly against the USD rising 1.64%. The GBP/USD also performed well, rising 0.58%. The AUD/USD and the NZD/USD also performed strongly and continue their recent uptrend up 0.73% and 0.55% respectively.

All eyes will be on the CPI figures being announced later today. Some analysts believe that February's inflation has likely accelerated and is far from peaking. With the recent rise in oil and gas prices, these will likely be priced into the figures for March and April.

Some analysts believe that CPI will rise to 0.8% after rising 0.6% the prior month. The Federal Reserve is still expected to hike interest rates 25 basis points later this month.

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PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) reported its Q2 earnings results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. The US beverage and food company reported revenue of $20.225 billion for the quarter vs. analyst forecast of $19.513 billion. Earnings per share also reported above analyst expectations at $1.86 per share vs. $1.74 per share estimate. ''We are pleased with our results for the second quarter as our business momentum continued despite ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility and higher levels of inflation across our markets,'' Chairman and CEO Ramon Laguarta commented on the latest results following the announcement. ''Our results are indicative of our highly dedicated employees, the strength and resilience of our categories, agile supply chain and go-to-market systems and strong marketplace execution.

Our performance also gives us confidence that our investments to become an even Faster, even Stronger, and even Better organization by winning with pep+ are working. Given our year-to-date performance, we now expect our full-year organic revenue to increase 10 percent (previously 8 percent) and we continue to expect core constant currency earnings per share to increase 8 percent,'' Laguarta concluded. PepsiCo (PEP) chart The latest results did not have a huge impact on the shares price, the stock was down by 0.57% at $169.34 per share on Tuesday.

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Oracle Corporation (ORCL) reported its latest financial after the closing bell in the US on Monday. The company beat both revenue and earnings per share estimates, sending the stock price higher. The US software and hardware manufacturer reported revenue of $11.84 billion for the quarter (up by 5% year-over-year and up 10% in constant currency) vs. $11.61 billion expected.

Earnings per share reported at $1.54 per share vs. $1.37 per share estimate. ''We continued to improve our top line results again this quarter with total revenue growing 10% in constant currency,'' Oracle CEO, Safra Catz commented on the latest results after the announcement. ''These consistent increases in our quarterly revenue growth rate typically have been driven by our market leading Fusion and NetSuite cloud applications. But this Q4, we also experienced a major increase in demand in our infrastructure cloud business—which grew 39% in constant currency. We believe that this revenue growth spike indicates that our infrastructure business has now entered a hyper-growth phase.

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US indices retraced overnight as the market took a step back to assess the recent rally. The Nasdaq finished down 1.32%, the Dow Jones Index was down 1.29% and the S&P 500 was 1.23% in the red. Despite the selling, the session was still a far cry from recent sell-offs.

In Europe, the DAX slumped 1.31% after showing some strength early in the day. The FTSE continues to be the stronger of the indices due to its geographical protection against the Russian/Ukraine conflict and the rising oil and other commodity prices. CPI figures in the UK announced earlier in the day were slightly higher than expected at 6.2% vs an expected rate at 6%.

However, the UK has already enacted steps to combat inflation ahead of many other countries. Commodities Oil prices spiked again, as disruptions to Russian and Kazakh crude exports will reduce exports by up to 1 million barrels a day or 1% of global production due to storm damage. This caused oil shorts to squeeze as Brent Crude to pump 6.04% to 121.40 USD.

Gold continues to build a base as it closed the night up 1.21% to 1,944.03 USD per ounce. Natural Gas made early gains but was not able to hold its highs as it sold off from the supply zone at 5.3 USD. Natural gas is still holding the 5.10 USD support level as it ended the day o.41% down.

Cryptocurrency Bitcoin had a choppy day as it remained range-bound for the session as the BTC/USD closed up 0.22% overall. Ethereum again continues to outperform BTC and rose by 1.44% as it gets closer to breaking out of the $3050 level. ETH/USD ended the day at $3016.

FOREX The AUD/USD touched $0.75 overnight but has not yet been able to push through the area of resistance. The pair is one to keep an eye on as movement in either direction may provide an opportunity for the market to pounce. The USD/JPY also continues to go up in an almost vertical direction.

The pair finished up 0.32% for the session. The GBP/USD finished 0.44% lower on the back of the UK inflation figures, with the pair trading at 1.3200 USD.