The EURUSD pair has been navigating challenging waters in recent weeks, experiencing a decline of more than 5% since mid-July. This decline has primarily been due to the USD's strength, as the Federal Reserve remains firm in its commitment to maintaining higher interest rates for longer to bring down inflation. Last week marked a critical turning point for EURUSD as it breached a crucial trend level.

The ascending channel that had been in place since early 2023 was broken, resulting in a swift price decline to around 1.07. Presently, the pair is sitting precariously on an important horizontal support level. The significance of this support level cannot be overstated.

Failure to hold at this level could lead to further downward movement, with the next support zone around the 1.05 mark. This impending test of support comes at a pivotal moment as the market eagerly await the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data later this week. The upcoming CPI data will be the main event for USD traders this week.

A decline in inflation could potentially soften the USD, suggesting that the Fed might consider an earlier-than-expected rate cut. On the other hand, if inflation exceeds analyst estimates, it may bolster the USD's strength, potentially causing the EURUSD pair to breach its current support level and head towards lower levels. As we approach the release of the CPI data, all eyes are on this key economic indicator.

Its outcome will undoubtedly serve as a pivotal driver of direction for the EURUSD pair this week.

EU and UK indices are looking to open slightly stronger despite a weak lead from the Asian session. Aussie and Asian indices finish in the red after US-China tech-related frictions and disappointing Japanese GDP revisions weighed on risk sentiment. Asian session wrap - FX Markets The USD was softer with DXY retreating from extreme RSI overbought levels to push below the key 105.00 level.

Dovish commentary from the Fed’s Logan ahead of the Fed blackout window and strength in the Dollars major counterparts outweighing the sour risk sentiment which would normally see the Dollar benefit from haven flows. EUR bounced back after a sell-off on Yesterday’s dismal German data. EURUSD pushing back above the 1.0700 level after finding support at the June lows.

USDJPY was choppy with early drop due to the risk-off mood and MoF jawboning saw the pair test the S/R level at 146.63 before bouncing back as the Asian session progressed. Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki stating in comments that rapid FX moves are undesirable and warned the Japanese MoF won't rule out any options (intervention?) AUDUSD rallied to test the key 0.6400 S/R level, despite the risk-off tone and recent commodity pressure. A weaker USD and some technical support from the daily trendline seeming to be the key drivers.

Looking ahead, the main risk events data wise will be Canadian jobs figures later today and Chinese CPI released on Saturday.

The DAX cooled off in yesterday’s session off the back of higher-than-expected German inflation data. With analysis expecting the Year-on-Year rate to fall to 6%, the actual number was higher at 6.2%. This has raised some concerns over the fight against inflation in Germany, putting an end to the three-day green streak for the DAX.

Technically, price bounced nicely off the support zone around 15,500-15,600. This level has acted as both a key area of resistance and support in the past 6 months. Since the first breakout above that zone in March, price has been ranging sideways ever since.

Multiple attempts to break and hold above the January 2022 high have failed, and the recent sell-off coincided nicely at the mid-range level. From a purely support and resistance technical view, there are two scenarios that could occur. The first would be a fall back down to the key support level around 15,600.

The second could be a positive catalyst news even that kicks price through the mid-range resistance level and back up towards the January 2022 high for a 4th attempt at breaking through. Since the recent low 2 weeks ago, the price action formed a more bullish market structure on the lower timeframes. We’ve seen a clean higher high and higher low.

While this bullish structure holds, bulls could remain in control.

In June, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets with a decision to hike rates by 25bps, taking the Australian cash rate to 4.10%. This was decided on the basis that further increases were required to provide greater confidence that inflation would return to the target range within a reasonable timeframe. This decision led to the AUDUSD climbing steadily from the 0.6650 price level up toward the 0.69 round number resistance area.

Currently, the AUDUSD is trading along the 0.6670 price level, just below the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level, in the lead-up to the RBA decision on 4th July. While markets anticipate that the RBA could hold rates at 4.10%, given that the consumer price index (CPI) has fallen significantly from 6.8% to 5.6%, another surprise hike from the RBA could still be possible as inflation is still well above the target range. As the AUDUSD found relative support along the 0.6595 price level and with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trending to the upside, a decision from the RBA to hike rates to 4.35% could lead the AUDUSD to climb steadily toward the immediate resistance level of 0.69.

Watch for the price to break above the 0.67 round number level, to signal a confirmation of the upside, with the 0.68 price level coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level providing brief resistance on the path up to the 0.69 resistance area.

Since March 2023, the GBPUSD had been trading higher as the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) maintained along their path to continue raising rates, as they battled to bring inflation down to their 2-3% target level. As the DXY recovered in strength, this led the GBPUSD to reverse from the high of 1.3130, trading down toward the lower bound of the bullish channel, along the 1.28 price level. Although the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in July had a signaled a slowdown of inflation growth to 7.9%, this is still well above the BoE’s target level and significantly higher, compared to the other major economies.

At the upcoming meeting on 3rd August, the BoE is expected to raise rates by 25bps, a fourteenth successive tightening, taking rates to 5.25% the highest since December 2007. However, it cannot be ruled out that the BoE could further surprise markets with a 50bps rate hike, similar to its actions in June. At the upcoming meeting on 3rd August, the BoE is expected to raise rates by 25bps, a fourteenth successive tightening, taking rates to 5.25% the highest since December 2007.

However, it cannot be ruled out that the BoE could further surprise markets with a 50bps rate hike, similar to its actions in June.

Australian CPI figures today see a rapid cooling in Aussie inflation, coming in at 5.6% y/y against an expected 6.1% and a big drop from April’s 6.8% shock to the upside. This saw a rapid re-pricing of rate hike odds at the next RBA meeting on July 4 th, with interbank futures signaling odds have dropped to 17% of a 25bp move, from 25% pre-CPI. Unsurprisingly a rapid fall in AUDUSD was also a consequence of this market repricing, after finding some support at the 50% retracement level of the June low to highs this week, AUDUSD pushed lower to test the 618% Fibonacci level before finding some buyers.

These two levels will be worth watching, whether AUDUSD can regain and again find support at the 50% retracement or that level now becomes resistance and puts the 61.8% retracement level in danger of giving way.