The current market consensus is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would likely keep interest rates at 5.50% at the upcoming meeting on 12th July. This is supported by the RBNZ’s monetary statement indicating that “ monetary policy is having a sufficiently moderating effect on demand and inflation, and that we are yet to see the full effects of past tightening on the economy. A pause would also allow more time to assess the impact of the significant tightening, and the timing of any further increase that might be needed.” However, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned down from its peak of 7.3%, the most recent data was released at 6.7%, this is still significantly higher than the RBNZ’s target level of 1-3%.

Therefore, another rate hike from the RBNZ cannot be ruled out. In May, the RBNZ released its decision to hike rates to 5.50% but also indicated that the official cash rate has reached its peak at 5.50% but would need to remain at the restrictive level until at least the middle of 2024. This led to the NZDUSD falling steadily from 0.6250 to reach the round number support level of 0.60.

As the NZDUSD climbs toward the 0.6250 price area, formed by the previous swing high and the downward trendline, look for a potential reversal if the RBNZ holds interest rates at 5.50% as forecasted. A reversal to the downside could reach the price level of 0.61, supported by the upward trendline, and beyond that, the 0.60 round number key support level.

Todays NFP figure out of the USA is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in market expectations as to whether we’ve seen peak rates from The Federal Reserve, or if there is more to come and the ramifications that will have for the FX market. NFP figures are always interesting, traditionally the biggest market moving figure of the month on the US calendar, and against the backdrop of the Feds “data dependent” messaging regarding future rate moves this figure will be a big piece of how the market prices in the result of the September Fed meeting. Currently markets are butting heads with the Fed, only pricing in a higher chance of no more hikes from the Fed, despite Fed guidance and dot plots indicating they are looking at least one more hike this cycle.

Current September Fed Fund Future odds are showing only a 17.5% of a hike in the September meeting. Source:CME Fedwatch tool Market expectations are for a slowing in payroll growth in July the consensus being 200k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in July, slightly cooling from the 209k added in June, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 3.6%. A big beat or miss on these expectations, a rapid repricing of hike/hold odds would be likely to see volatility and opportunities in FX markets.

Chart to watch: US Dollar Index (DXY) DXY has rallied strongly since mid-July as the UST 10 Year yields pushed higher and getting an extra boost from some risk-off this week in equity markets which pushed DXY through the S/R level at 102. DXY found resistance at its upper trend line at around the 102.84 level, seeing some of the recent gains being pared. Also an important factor is the close relationship between US10 yields and DXY, the yields now above 4% where they have struggled to go any higher in the recent past, this will also see a headwind against DXY pushing higher from this level.

The levels to watch over todays NFP will be 102.84 to the upside on a big beat, 102 as support to the downside if we get a big miss. Both of those levels will be key in the next trend direction of DXY. Calendar:

The Nasdaq Composite Index has kicked off 2023 with a historic performance, achieving its most impressive start since 1975. Despite concerns about a potential recession, the index has displayed remarkable resilience, surging over 37% year-to-date as of the end of July. The upward trend has been consistent, with green months recorded in 6 out of the 7 months of the year so far.

With only 13.50% more to run before it gets back to all time highs set in November 2021, it will be interesting to watch how this plays out over the second half of the year. From a technical standpoint, traders are closely monitoring the current price action within this crucial resistance zone. The market's reaction here will determine its short-term direction.

Will the resistance zone hold strong and push the price downward, or will the momentum be strong enough to break through and continue its journey toward all-time highs? Zooming out to the weekly timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been floating around overbought territory since mid-June. This confluence with the resistance zone indicates a possible cooling off period in the coming weeks.

This scenario wouldn't be overly surprising, as markets often experience a breather after significant surges.

After a fortnight of trending north, Gold has fallen over the past 5 days. It is currently trading at around $1960, showing a slight decline of approximately 1.35% from its recent high of $1987.53. Price is currently trying to break out of the downward channel that it has been in since late last week, so something to keep an eye on going into the key economic data due out this week.

All eyes are now on the upcoming FOMC meeting, where the market is currently pointing towards a high probability (over 98%) of a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday. Considering the historical inverse relationship between gold and the USD, let's explore potential reactions by Gold to the FOMC meeting: Rate Hike Scenario (USD Strengthens): If the FOMC goes ahead with the 25bps rate hike, it could lead to a strengthening of the USD. Higher interest rates tend to attract more investments into the US currency, potentially dampening demand for gold.

Consequently, gold prices might face downward pressure in this scenario. Rate Pause Scenario (USD Weakens): Conversely, if the Fed decides to maintain interest rates at 5.25% or hints at a more dovish approach, the USD could weaken. A weaker USD often prompts investors to seek refuge in gold as a hedge against currency depreciation and inflation.

As a result, gold prices could see an uptick due to increased demand. Source: CME Fedwatch tool With the markets almost entirely pricing in a 25bps hike, unless we get a surprise in the figure, volatility may stay subdued until Fed Chair Jerome Powell begins his press conference shortly after the announcement. Investors and traders will be eagerly analysing his language to see if there are any hints on future movements by the Fed.

The GBJPY has continued to climb strongly to the upside, since the end of March 2023 and currently trades just below the 183.00 price level. This move higher is driven by a combination of the weakness of the Japanese Yen and renewed strength in the British Pound. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has begun to sound warning bells regarding potentially excessive moves in the Yen, and markets are speculating about the possibility of intervention from the BoJ.

The previous intervention from the BoJ came when the USDJPY reached the 145 price level. The USDJPY currently trades along the 143.60 price level. This could indicate that further upside could be anticipated on the GBPJPY before a strong correction to the downside.

If the GBPJPY breaks above 183 the price could continue to climb towards the next key resistance level of 188.70, with the Ichimoku cloud providing strong support for the uptrend. As the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is well into the overbought region, watch for a possible reversal if the BoJ intervenes, especially along the 188.70 resistance level or at the major swing high of 195.60 (last reached in June 2015)

USD was firmer on Thursday, largely due to a rally in treasury yields with the DXY tracking the 10 year yield higher to a peak of 102.470 after bouncing off the psychological 102 support level. US data was mixed with Unemployment claims and current account figures coming in worse than expected, but this was offset by a beat in Existing home sales. There was a selection of Fed speakers, with the Chair Powell headlining.

Little new was revealed with Chair Powell re-iterating the FOMC broadly feels it will be appropriate to raise rates again this year which surprised no-one. GBP was volatile after the BoE somewhat surprised markets with a larger than expected 50bp hike, going into the meeting a 25bp was the favoured outcome by economists, but a 50bp was partially priced in so not a totally unexpected move from the BoE. The bank also maintained guidance further tightening would be required if there was more evidence of persistent inflation.

Post decision GBPUSD hit a high of 1.2838 in a knee jerk reaction before reversing the move and eventually hitting lows of 1.2728 in similar price action we saw after Wednesdays hotter than expected CPI figure. GBP price action is indicating the market feels further hawkish re-pricing of BoE action is limited, with fears that the current projected path will lead to recession in the UK weighing on the Pound and Cable will struggle to breach the major resistance at 1.28. CHF was lower vs the USD after seeing weakness in the aftermath of the SNB rate decision where the SNB hiked by 25bps disappointing some market participants who were looking for a 50bp move.

The SNB did note however that additional rate hikes will be necessary. After an initial spike lower to test the 0.8900 support zone, USDCH reversed course, hitting a high of 0.8973 before finding some selling. JPY was the G10 underperformer with USDJPY printing a fresh 2023 high of 143.22 after breaching the key 142.50 level, with a CPI report coming up today, another close above this level could see a technical continuance to test the 145 level.

Recent Fed speak has also raised the issue that US treasury yields are likely to continue to rally, increasing the rate differential between US10Y and JGBs which will also be a major tailwind to get the pair to 145, which is where the BoJ's November USDJPY intervention was launched. Todays calendar of major risk events below: