市场资讯及洞察

石油市场习惯于在停止结算之前就看上去已经定下来了。这就是现在的设置。
随着伊朗周边冲突的加剧,霍尔木兹海峡的交通量急剧下降,越来越多的船只因关闭AIS或自动识别系统而陷入黑暗,这些信号通常显示船只在哪里移动。霍尔木兹不只是另一条航道。它是世界上最重要的能源阻塞点之一,因此,当能见度开始消失时,供应风险就会回到对话的中心。
为什么现在这很重要
这很重要,有两个原因。
头条新闻是一回事。市场影响是另一回事。石油不仅关乎有多少桶,还关系到这些桶能否流动,谁愿意为它们投保,买家准备等待多长时间,以及交易者认为他们需要在多大风险的基础上定价。
目前,有三件事同时发生冲突:航运中断、外交脆弱以及市场已经严重倾向于一个方向。这种组合可以使布伦特原油的走势比基本面本身通常所暗示的要快。
是什么推动了这一举动
1 供应能见度恶化
第一个驱动程序很简单。市场看得更少,这往往会让市场更加紧张。
通过霍尔木兹的过境量急剧下降,而越来越多的交通量涉及不再广播标准跟踪信号的船只。简而言之,正常通过重要走廊的船只越来越少,越来越多的活动也变得越来越难以追踪。这并不自动意味着供应即将崩溃。但这确实意味着不确定性正在上升。
2 伊朗的储存缓冲区可能有限
第二个驱动因素是伊朗的出口和储存限制。
陆上储存容量估计约为4000万桶,市场正在关注有人所说的16天红线。到那时,长期的出口中断可能会开始迫使减产,以避免对储油库造成损害。对于新读者来说,要点很简单。如果石油不能储存足够长的时间,问题可能不再是出口延迟,而是开始成为真正的供应问题。
3 定位可以放大移动
第三个驱动因素是定位,这只是市场简写,说明在下一步行动发生之前交易者已经如何进行设置。
在这种情况下,投机性原油头寸显得严重片面。这很重要,因为当市场向一个方向倾斜得太远时,触发急剧调整并不需要太多时间。新的地缘政治冲击可能迫使交易者迅速采取行动,而一旦开始,价格的上涨幅度可能会超过单纯基础新闻所能证明的合理性。
为什么市场在乎
石油冲击很少能在能源市场内得到控制。
较高的原油价格可能会开始出现在运费、制造业和家庭能源账单中。这意味着通货膨胀预期可能会再次开始攀升。各国央行已经在努力管理粘性通货膨胀和疲软增长之间的艰难平衡,因此石油价格上涨会使这项工作变得更加艰难。
这不仅仅是一个关于石油生产商获得提振的故事。当能源成本上升时,航空公司、运输公司和其他对燃料敏感的企业可能会迅速承受压力。如果石油价格上涨使通货膨胀保持强于预期,则更广泛的股市可能还必须重新考虑政策前景。
连锁反应远不止石油
还有一个货币角度,它不如最初出现的那么简单。
当原材料价格上涨时,与大宗商品挂钩的货币,例如澳元,通常会获得支撑。但是这种关系不是自动的。如果石油价格因为全球需求改善而攀升,那可能会有所帮助。如果由于地缘政治风险激增而攀升,则市场可能会转向避险模式,即使大宗商品价格上涨,这也可能打压澳元。
这就是让这种举动比乍一看更有趣的原因。同样的石油涨势可以支撑市场的一个部分,同时给另一部分带来压力。
框架中的资产和名称
布伦特原油仍然是广泛供应风险中最明显的解读。如果交易者想要最简洁的头条新闻表达,通常是他们首先看的地方。
- 埃克森美孚是画面中最明显的名字之一。油价上涨可以支撑已实现的销售价格和短期的盈利势头,尽管这从来都不像石油上涨、囤积那么简单。成本、生产结构和更广泛的情绪仍然很重要。
- NexTera Energy 又增加了一层。这个故事不仅仅是关于化石燃料的。当能源安全成为一个更大的问题时,国内电力弹性、电网投资和替代发电的理由也将得到加强。
- 澳元/美元是另一个值得关注的市场。澳大利亚与大宗商品周期密切相关,因此原材料价格走强有时可以支撑该货币。但是,如果市场对恐惧的反应大于对增长的反应,那么通常的顺风可能不会成立。
对于新读者来说,关键是石油走势不会以整齐的、可预测的线条在市场中传播。它们不均匀地向外波动,帮助某些资产,给其他资产施加压力,有时两者兼而有之。
可能会出什么问题
强烈的叙述与单向交易不同。
停火可以比预期更快地稳定航运。欧佩克+可以通过提高产量来抵消部分紧张局势。来自中国的需求数据可能会令人失望,将焦点转移到消费疲软而不是供应受限上。而且,如果地缘政治溢价消退,石油回落的速度可能比当前情绪所暗示的要快。
对于新读者来说,要点很简单。石油涨势可以是真实的,但不是永久性的。短期内,中断风险可能证明此举是合理的,然后如果这些风险缓解或需求疲软,则迅速逆转。
市场不再孤立地对石油进行定价。这是定价可见性、运输安全性以及供应中断蔓延到通货膨胀、货币和更广泛的风险情绪中的风险。
这就是为什么Hormuz很重要,即使对于从未自己交易过一桶原油的读者来说也是如此。


Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) announced the latest financial results on Wednesday. The US ride-hailing company beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the last 3 months of 2023. Revenue reached $9.936 billion for the quarter (up from $8.607 billion in Q4 2022) vs. $9.756 billion expected.
EPS was reported at $0.66 per share (up by 127.58% year-over-year) vs. $0.163 per share estimate. Full year revenue grew by 24% from 2022 to $137.865 billion. Company overview Founded: March 2009 Headquarters: San Francisco, California, United States Number of employees: 32,800 (2022) Industry: Transportation Key people: Ronald Sugar (Chairman), Dara Khosrowshahi (CEO) CEO commentary "2023 was an inflection point for Uber, proving that we can continue to generate strong, profitable growth at scale.
Our audiences are larger and more engaged than ever, with our platform powering an average of nearly 26 million daily trips last year," Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber said in a press release. Stock reaction Shares initially dropped by around 3% at the open on Wednesday. Shares flat towards the end of the trading day, up by 0.20% at $70.61 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: +8.14% 1 month: +13.10% 3 months: +42.60% Year-to-date: +14.64% 1 year: +91.65% Uber stock price targets Needham & Company LLC: $71 KeyCorp: $79 JMP Securities: $75 Bank of America: $73 Truist Financial: $68 Gordon Haskett: $66 Mizuho: $77 The Goldman Sachs Group: $78 BMO Capital Markets: $69 Nomura: $62 Oppenheimer: $75 Tigress Financial: $72 Wells Fargo & Company: $64 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $62 Morgan Stanley: $62 Uber Technologies Inc. is the 89th largest company in the world with a market cap of $145.20 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE: UBER) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
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US tobacco and cigarette company Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) released the latest financial results for Q4 and 2023 full year before opening bell in the US on Thursday. The company reported revenue of $9 billion for the quarter, which was just shy of $9.008 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) fell short of analyst estimates at $1.36 vs. $1.449 per share expected.
Full year revenue and EPS reached $35.2 billion and $5.02 per share respectively. Company overview Founded: 1874 Headquarters: Stamford, Connecticut, United States Number of employees: 79,800 (2022) Industry: Tobacco Key people: André Calantzopoulos (Executive Chairman), Jacek Olczak (CEO) CEO commentary "Our business delivered a strong finish to 2023 and we achieved a number of remarkable milestones on our path to becoming a smoke-free company," Jacek Olczak, CEO of Philip Morris said after earnings. "We are entering 2024 with strong momentum, and we expect it will be another year of excellent performance underpinned by an acceleration in organic smoke-free net revenue and profit growth," Olczak added. Stock reaction Shares were down by 2.68% at the end of Thursday’s session at $88.99 a share – the lowest since October 2023.
Stock performance 5 day: -4.57% 1 month: -6.43% 3 months: -0.86% Year-to-date: -5.37% 1 year: -12.73% Philip Morris stock price targets UBS Group: $86.50 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $115 Redburn Atlantic: $95 Jefferies Financial Group: $105 Stifel Nicolaus: $114 Morgan Stanley: $113 Bank of America: $111 Barclays: $110 Citigroup: $117 Philip Morris International Inc. is the 94th largest company in the world with a market cap of $138.19 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
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On Friday, US beverage and food company PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) announced the latest financial results before the market opened. The New York based company reported revenue of $27.85 billion for Q4 2023, falling short of Wall Street analyst estimate of $28.4 billion. Revenue was down from $27.996 billion from the same period in 2022.
Earnings per share (EPS) reached $1.78 (up by 6.5% year-over-year) vs. $1.722 per share expected. PepsiCo achieved full year revenue of $91.471 billion. Full year EPS reached $7.62 per share.
The company also announced a quarterly dividend of $1.265 per share. Company overview Founded: 1898 Headquarters: Donald M. Kendall Sculpture Gardens, Harrison, New York, U.S.
Number of employees: 315,000 (2022) Industry: Beverages, Food processing Key people: Ramon Laguarta (Chairman & CEO), Hugh Johnston (Vice Chairman & CFO) CEO commentary "We are pleased with our results for 2023 as we successfully navigated another year of elevated levels of inflation, macroeconomic volatility, geopolitical tensions and international conflicts. Our results demonstrate that the investments we have made to strengthen our business and advance our pep+ agenda are working: it’s evident in how we are innovating, operating, empowering our teams, building our brands, and competing in the marketplace," CEO of PepsiCo, Ramon Laguarta said in a statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock was down by 2.80% during Friday's session, trading at $168.99 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: -1.37% 1 month: +0.81% 3 months: +1.02% Year-to-date: -0.71% 1 year: -4.30% PepsiCo stock price targets Wedbush: $195 Barclays: $179 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $176 Jefferies Financial Group: $203 DZ Bank: $187 Wells Fargo & Company: $172 Morgan Stanley: $190 Argus: $186 Royal Bank of Canada: $180 Citigroup: $180 Evercore ISI: $185 Deutsche Bank: $195 UBS Group: $205 Credit Suisse Group: $182 PepsiCo Inc. is the 47th largest company in the world with a market cap of $231.86 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
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Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: PepsiCo Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap


The largest steel producer company in the United States, Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE), announced the latest financial results after the market closed in Wall Street on Monday. The company achieved revenue of $7.705 billion in the fourth quarter of last year, above analyst estimate of $7.635 billion. Earnings per share was reported at $3.16, also higher than $2.921 per share expected.
Company overview Founded: 1905 Headquarters: Charlotte, North Carolina, United States Number of employees: 31,000 (2022) Industry: Steel Key people: Leon J. Topalian (President, & CEO), John H. Walker (Executive Chairman), James D.
Frias (CFO) CEO commentary "The Nucor team delivered a strong finish to 2023, which represents the third-most profitable year in our Company's history. Nucor's strategy to grow our core steelmaking capabilities and expand beyond into steel-adjacent business lines continues to deliver strong results," Leon J. Topalian, CEO of the steel company said in a press release to investors. "Over the past four years, Nucor has generated an average annual ROE of 33% and has returned approximately $9.7 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
We remain optimistic that Nucor's best days are ahead of us, with a resilient U.S. economy and steel-intensive megatrends driving increased demand for our products. With our strong balance sheet and broad array of sustainable steel solutions, we believe Nucor is unparalleled with respect to its ability to leverage these market drivers for continued growth," Topalian added. Stock reaction The stock was up by 0.88% at market close on Monday, trading at $176.64 a share – the highest since 27/12/2023.
Shares rose by around 1% in the after-hours trading as the latest results were announced. Stock performance 5 day: +3.12% 1 month: +0.98% 3 months: +17.99% Year-to-date: +0.98% 1 year: +5.64% Nucor stock price targets UBS Group: $210 JP Morgan & Chase: $158 Morgan Stanley: $154 Citigroup: $180 Credit Suisse Group: $167 BNP Paribas: $191 The Goldman Sachs Group: $161 Nucor Corporation is the 427th largest company in the world with a market cap of $43.14 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
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Chinese electric vehicle company, NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO), hasn’t had the best start to 2024 with the stock plummeting by 37.05% year-to-date. That’s despite the company signing battery-swap agreements with other Chinese automakers, including, Changan Automobile, Geely Group, JAC Group and Chery Automobile. Back in the December, NIO also announced a $2.2 billion investment from Abu Dhabi.
You can read more about it here. On Thursday, the company released the latest delivery numbers for January, which had a rare positive effect on the share price. NIO delivered 10,055 cars last month, which was up by 18.2% from January 2023.
The company has delivered 459,649 vehicles in total as of 31/1/2024. The EV maker is expected to announce the latest financial results for the fourth quarter on around 21/3/2024. Company overview Founded: November 2014 Headquarters: Shanghai, China Number of employees: 20,000+ (2023) Industry: Automotive Key people: William Li (CEO), Lihong Qin (President), Wei Feng (CFO) Stock reaction The stock was up by 1.60% at the end of trading day on Thursday at $5.71 a share and is currently trading at the lowest level since June 2020.
Stock performance 5 day: -5.46% 1 month: -30.96% 3 months: -26.70% Year-to-date: -37.05% 1 year: -52.26% NIO stock price targets Mizuho: $15 Deutsche Bank: $16 CLSA: $14 Sanford C. Bernstein: $8 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $10.50 Citigroup: $19.20 UBS Group: $15 Nomura: $7.50 Barclays: $8 Morgan Stanley: $12 NIO Inc. is the 1367th largest and 5th largest electric vehicle company in the world with a market cap of $11.91 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
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Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) recently overtook Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) as the largest company in the world, reaching $3.036 trillion market cap. On Tuesday, the company announced its latest financial results. Let’s see how the company performed.
The US tech giant reported revenue that exceeded Wall Street expectations at $62.02 billion for FY24 Q2 (up by 18% year-over-year) vs. $61.141 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.93 vs. $2.771 per share expected. EPS was up by 33% vs. the same period the year before.
Company overview Founded: 1975 Headquarters: Redmond, Washington Number of employees: 221,000 Industry: Technology Key people: Satya Nadella (CEO), Amy Hood (CFO) CEO and CFO commentary "We’ve moved from talking about AI to applying AI at scale. By infusing AI across every layer of our tech stack, we’re winning new customers and helping drive new benefits and productivity gains across every sector," Satya Nadella, CEO of the company highlighted what’s driving the business in a press release. Amy Hood, CFO of Microsoft, also chipped in to emphasize what helped the company achieve the high level results in the previous quarter: "Strong execution by our sales teams and partners drove Microsoft Cloud revenue to $33.7 billion, up 24% (up 22% in constant currency) year-over-year." Stock reaction Shares were flat at market close on Tuesday, trading at $408.49 a share.
There wasn’t much movement in the stock in the after-hours following the latest resulst were announced. One to watch at the open on Wednesday. Stock performance 5 day: +2.43% 1 month: +10.17% 3 months: +20.85% Year-to-date: +8.66% 1 year: +64.88% Microsoft stock price targets Wedbush: $450 Piper Sandler: $455 BNP Paribas: $471 BMO Capital Markets: $420 Mizuho: $450 Argus: $430 Tigress Financial: $475 Royal Bank of Canada: $390 Evercore ISI: $432 Barclays: $425 HSBC: $413 Citigroup: $432 You can trade Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Microsoft Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
