US dollar drops as the economy shrinks by 0.9% for the last quarter.
GO Markets
30/8/2024
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US economic data revealed last night shows that the country’s GDP has shrunk by 0.9%, although some are remaining positive that a recession may still be avoided. Despite the worrying figures, Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, outlined his belief that due to low unemployment figures of 3.6% and a strong market for jobs with 11 million job openings that there may be a 'soft landing'. Joe Biden commented, “It’s no surprise that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation.” More US CPI data is expected to be announced tonight.
In response to the GDP figure, the US indices had another green day with the Dow Jones, the Nasdaq, and the S&P500 all rising 1.03%, 1.08%, and 1.21% respectively. In terms of share price movement, Meta’s stock price dipped 5.22% as it posted its first-ever quarterly drop in revenue, signaling how interest rate hikes have been impacting growth companies. The data also followed through to the Australian market with the yield on 3-year government bonds falling to 3.1%.
The ASX200 also continued its momentum for the week as it pushed higher again on Thursday. Brent Crude Oil had a mixed day ending the day flat at $107.58. Gold continued to bounce off its support zone and climbed up 1.25% and Natural Gas fell 4.66% as it continues to pull back from its recent highs dropping 4.66%.
FOREX and Cryptocurrency The USD dropped sharply as the GDP figures were announced. It recovered briefly, before selling back down, closing towards the lowest price of the day, a total drop of 0.28%. Bitcoin and Ethereum also gained momentum as money continued to flow back into risk assets, with the latter jumping to its highest level since the middle of July.
ETHUSD closed at $1726 and Bitcoin at $23,860.
By
GO Markets
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Developing situation
|
Strait of Hormuz | Section 122 Tariffs
PublishedApril 2026
Brent CrudeAbove US$100
VIX31
In focus6 markets
Oil PositioningDecade-low longs
The Framework & MechanismIs the market the red line?
+
This is where the TACO idea starts to matter. Traders are not just watching the rhetoric. They are watching when it starts to hit markets, inflation and the wider economy.
Oil is at the centre of that risk. If disruption around the Strait of Hormuz starts to threaten global energy flows, the story quickly becomes macro. Higher oil can lift inflation expectations, pressure central banks and tighten financial conditions.
That is why a pause can look less like diplomacy and more like pressure relief. The real red line may be the point where the economic damage becomes too obvious to ignore.
Short Squeezed
Positioning adds another layer. Oil still looks under-owned, with futures positioning near decade-long bearish extremes. If a fresh shock lands, short-covering could drive prices higher much faster than fundamentals alone would suggest.
That is the short-squeeze risk. In the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, recent data suggests oil long exposure is relatively low by historical standards.
Humanitarian Reality
Whatever may be promised in political messaging, any sustained conflict in Iran would carry a heavy cost in displacement, infrastructure damage and wider regional stress. A relief rally in markets does not change that.
Global Isolation
Even if pauses are used to steady domestic market sentiment, allies and multilateral institutions may view bluff-and-retreat tactics as a credibility problem that creates longer-term diplomatic friction.
Positioning gap indicator
Divergence analysis between positioning and risk environment
APRIL 2026
Bars show GO Markets’ internal estimate of the divergence between current futures positioning and levels seen in comparable historical shock environments.
Brent crudeExtreme
Gold (XAU/USD)Very high
Nasdaq 100High
USD/CNHHigh
US 10 yr yieldMedium
USD/CADMedium
Extreme decade scale positioning extreme
High significant divergence
Medium moderate divergence
Methodology note
The Positioning Gap Indicator is based on GO Markets’ internal analysis and is intended as a high-level, illustrative framework only. It uses a combination of market positioning data, historical comparisons and discretionary assumptions about how similar energy and trade shocks have affected markets in the past. The ‘Extreme’, ‘Very High’, ‘High’ and ‘Medium’ labels are relative internal classifications, not objective market standards, and should not be relied on as predictions, forecasts or a guarantee of future outcomes.
The Six Markets
The six markets that matter most
Each of these six markets is exposed to the current situation through a different mechanism. Understanding the mechanism, not just the price, matters. It helps explain whether a move is a headline reaction or the start of something broader. Tap any card to expand the full analysis.
01
BRENT
Brent crude oil
ENERGYDIRECT CHANNELSQUEEZE RISK: EXTREME
+
The Clear Transmission Channel
Brent is the international benchmark for crude and the most direct transmission mechanism in this geopolitical thesis. Any disruption to physical flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, forces an immediate tightening of global energy supply.
The Positioning Backdrop
Futures positioning currently sits at a ten year bearish extreme. Leveraged funds have cut long exposure heavily. In the event of a physical supply shock, this imbalance creates the potential for a violent short covering squeeze.
● Bull Case
Hormuz disruption extends beyond four weeks. Extended disruption could lift Brent sharply if supply flows are impaired for longer.
● Bear Case
Diplomatic intervention reopens the strait quickly. Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) releases and increased spare capacity cap any price rally.
Strategic Marker
US$120: the point at which energy inflation becomes a direct Federal Reserve policy problem, rather than just a market narrative.
02
XAU/USD
Gold
SAFE HAVENUNDER-OWNEDSQUEEZE RISK: VERY HIGH
+
The Counter-Intuitive Setup
Despite a clear geopolitical risk profile, leveraged funds have been reducing bullish gold exposure. This leaves the market under-owned at the exact moment the fundamental case for safe haven assets is strengthening.
The Inflation Variable
The critical factor for Gold is whether energy-driven inflation limits the Fed's room to maneuver. If policy flexibility weakens, Gold could catch up quickly as a hedge against stagflation.
● Bull Case
Real yields fall as energy inflation outpaces rate hikes. Under-owned positioning amplifies the catch up move as institutional funds rebuild exposure.
● Bear Case
Geopolitical tensions ease rapidly. The Fed remains credibly focused on inflation, keeping real yields positive and supporting the USD over Gold.
Strategic Marker
One level to monitor is prior resistance, alongside any change in COT positioning.
03
US100/NAS100
Nasdaq 100
TECHNOLOGYDUAL PRESSURERATE AND SUPPLY RISK
+
Why it is a complicated position
The Nasdaq faces immediate pressure from two fronts: Stickier energy-driven inflation forces rates higher for longer, compressing multiples, while trade tensions unsettle the supply chains beneath major tech names.
Why the 10 year yield matters here
When the 10 year Treasury yield holds above 4.5%, the future value of technology earnings must be discounted at a higher rate. AI linked earnings momentum must overpower this valuation headwind.
● Bull Case
Earnings season delivers proof of AI investment generating real revenue. Index components successfully insulate supply chains, and AI capex momentum overrides the macro headwind.
● Bear Case
Energy inflation keeps yields above 4.5%. Multiple compression in high valuation names triggers a broader index decline amid disappointments in AI monetization.
Strategic Marker
S&P 500 at 6,498: a widely watched Fibonacci cluster. A sustained move below this threshold highlights a historically challenging framework for growth equities.
04
USD/CNH
US dollar/offshore Chinese yuan
FXBEIJING READPOLICY PROXY
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What it tells you
USD/CNH is the cleanest real time read on how Beijing is responding to tariff pressure. A sharp rise suggests China is allowing currency weakness to absorb the costs of trade friction.
Why it matters beyond China
A move in USD/CNH doesn't stay contained. It spills into Asian equities, commodity demand, and broader risk appetite. Deliberate depreciation signals a shift in the global trade environment.
● USD Bull / Yuan Bear
Beijing allows yuan weakness as a deliberate countermeasure. Capital outflows accelerate, and USD safe haven demand reinforces the move.
● Yuan Recovery
Trade negotiations begin and a face saving off ramp is found. PBOC intervention defends the yuan, and the dollar's safe haven premium fades.
Strategic Marker
7.30 on USD/CNH: a sustained move above this has historically been associated with broader risk off moves in Asian markets.
05
US10Y/TNOTE
US 10 year Treasury yield
RATESMACRO PLUMBINGSHAPES EVERYTHING ELSE
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Why it sits under everything
The 10 year yield shapes mortgage costs, corporate borrowing, and the valuation framework for risk assets globally. When it rises, borrowing becomes more expensive across the entire system.
The Independent Movement Risk
If oil forces the Fed to delay cuts, the 10 year yield could rise regardless of Fed communication. It can tighten financial conditions even before a formal policy shift occurs.
● Rates Fall Case
Oil shock proves transient. Fed maintains guidance and 10 year yields pull back toward 4.0%, relieving pressure on equities and providing support for bonds.
● Rates Rise Case
Sustained oil above US$100 pushes inflation higher. Fed pauses rate cut language and the 10 year yield breaks above 4.5%, compressing equity multiples.
Strategic Marker
4.5% on the 10 year yield: a sustained break above this while oil remains above US$100 is a historically challenging combination for equities.
06
USD/CAD
US dollar/offshore Canadian dollar
FXOIL-LINKEDLEAD INDICATOR
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The Double Exposure
USD/CAD is a lead indicator because Canada sits at the intersection of energy and trade. It benefits from higher oil revenue but is highly sensitive to US economic and trade conditions.
When the Forces Collide
When oil rises, the CAD often strengthens; when trade stress rises, it weakens. In the current environment, these forces are colliding rather than canceling each other out.
● CAD Strengthens
Oil sustained above US$100 boosts export revenue while trade tensions stay short of Canada specific tariffs. Bank of Canada holds rates steady.
● CAD Weakens
Safe haven USD demand outweighs the oil benefit. Bank of Canada cuts rates to offset trade headwinds.
Strategic Marker
1.42 on USD/CAD: a sustained move above this signals trade anxiety is dominating the oil benefit, often preceding broader risk off moves.
What could go wrong
Four reasons the market logic could fail
+
A coherent macro case is still only a case. Markets regularly ignore tidy narratives for longer than expected, or invalidate them quickly. Four failure paths stand out.
1
The situation de-escalates faster than the news cycle suggests
Geopolitical risk premia can build slowly and disappear quickly. Any credible sign of de-escalation, especially around shipping lanes or energy infrastructure, could reverse oil sharply and drain urgency from the rest of the thesis. This is precisely the scenario the TACO framework predicts.
2
Tariff posturing does not become tariff policy
The market may be reacting to opening positions rather than settled policy. If Washington and Beijing find a face-saving off-ramp, as they have in previous trade disputes, currency and equity moves that anticipated escalation could unwind just as fast as they built.
3
AI investment spending overrides the macro headwind
Technology capital expenditure has remained more resilient than expected for much of the past two years. If earnings season shows that AI infrastructure spending is still translating into real demand and returns, the growth narrative may reassert itself, particularly in the Nasdaq 100.
4
The squeeze never arrives: extended positioning holds for longer than expected
Stretched positioning does not automatically produce a violent reprice. Markets can stay under-owned for months if risk appetite remains weak and institutions are unwilling to rebuild exposure. The set-up can exist without the catalyst arriving in a way that forces the move.
Forward Calendar
What to watch and when
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Three time horizons matter here. The first tests supply resilience. The second tests financial system health. The third tests whether any shift in market leadership is cyclical or structural.
Three horizon watchlist
Signals and catalysts across the next two months
Next Two Weeks
Chipmaker guidance and supply commentary
Major semiconductor earnings calls will offer an early read on whether supply bottlenecks are worsening and whether management teams are changing production assumptions. If supply commentary deteriorates, the inflation story gets another push and the case for higher for longer rates strengthens.
Next 30 Days
Bank earnings and loan demand
Major US banks will provide a useful check on whether capital spending related to AI infrastructure is still being financed. The most important signal may not be earnings per share. It may be commercial loan demand. If businesses are pulling back on borrowing, the growth cycle may be softening earlier than the market expects.
Next 60 Days
Enablers versus spenders
The more structural test is whether the market begins rewarding businesses that produce physical outputs: energy producers, hardware makers and defence contractors, while penalising software companies that still cannot prove a clear return on AI spending. A wider performance gap between those groups would suggest something deeper than a temporary rotation.
Safe-haven demand:
The Iran conflict directed flows into US assets across equities, Treasuries, and the dollar itself.
Yield advantage:
The federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% provides a meaningful return floor relative to most peers, helping to sustain capital inflows.
Energy insulation:
The US position as an oil exporter creates a structural terms-of-trade benefit when oil prices rise sharply.
Rate cut repricing:
Market expectations for 2026 Fed cuts have been scaled back significantly, removing a key source of dollar headwinds.
What markets are watching next
The DXY's ability to hold above 100 is the near-term reference point. The 10 April CPI print is the most direct test. A reading above expectations may add further support, while a soft print could give traders reason to take some dollar positions off the table.
The main risks to the upside case are a sudden diplomatic resolution in the Middle East, which could reduce safe-haven demand quickly, or a labour market print on 3 April that is weak enough to revive recession concerns and push rate cut expectations higher again.
Energy import exposure:
Rising Brent crude hits New Zealand's trade balance directly and adds upside pressure to domestic inflation.
Yield gap:
The 2.25% Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy rate sits below the Fed and the RBA, sustaining negative carry against both the USD and AUD.
Risk-off positioning:
As a commodity and risk currency, the NZD tends to underperform when global sentiment deteriorates.
Trade uncertainty:
Ongoing tariff related uncertainty continues to weigh on export sector confidence.
Risks and constraints
Any unexpected hawkish commentary from the RBNZ or a sharp decline in oil prices could provide some relief. A broader improvement in global risk appetite would also tend to benefit the NZD, given its sensitivity to sentiment shifts.
But the structural yield disadvantage is not going away quickly, and that may continue to limit the pair's recovery potential.
Tokyo CPI, 30 March (AEDT):
March inflation data. A strong read may build the case for BOJ action at the April meeting.
BOJ meeting, 27 and 28 April (AEST):
Markets are treating this as a live event. The quarterly outlook report may include updated inflation forecasts that shift rate hike timing expectations.
Intervention watch:
Japan's Ministry of Finance has been explicit about the 160 level. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, could trigger a sharp and fast reversal.
What could shift the outlook
A hawkish BOJ, actual FX intervention, or a softer US CPI print that reduces dollar support could all push USD/JPY lower from current levels. On the other side, a dovish hold from the BOJ combined with continued dollar strength could see the pair test 160 and potentially beyond, which would likely intensify the intervention conversation in Tokyo.
For traders watching AUD/JPY and other yen crosses, the BOJ meeting on 27 and 28 April carries similar weight. A hawkish shift tends to compress yen crosses broadly, not just USD/JPY.
ข้อมูลที่จะดูต่อไป
อีเวนต์สี่อย่างโดดเด่นในฐานะตัวเร่งปฏิกิริยา FX ที่มีศักยภาพที่ชัดเจนที่สุดในสัปดาห์ข้างหน้าแต่ละช่องมีช่องทางส่งโดยตรงเข้ากับความคาดหวังอัตราและความคาดหวังของอัตราจะผลักดันการเคลื่อนไหวมากใน FX ในตอนนี้
Key dates and FX sensitivity
30
Mar
Tokyo CPI
JPY pairs, USD/JPY · AEDT
A strong read may strengthen the case for a more hawkish BOJ at the April meeting.
3
Apr
US labour market (NFP)
USD pairs, AUD/USD, NZD/USD · 10:30 pm AEDT
A weak result could revive recession concerns and alter Fed pricing.
10
Apr
US CPI - March
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, gold · 10:30 pm AEST
The most direct test of whether inflation is easing fast enough to reopen the rate cut conversation.
27-28
Apr
BOJ meeting and quarterly outlook report
JPY crosses, AUD/JPY · AEST
The key policy event for yen crosses. Updated inflation forecasts may shift rate hike timing expectations.
A psychologically and technically significant support level. Holding above it may sustain the dollar's current run across major pairs. A break below it would likely signal a broader sentiment shift.
◆
USD/JPY 160.00
Japan's Ministry of Finance has consistently referenced this level as a threshold requiring attention. Actual intervention, or a credible threat of it, has historically been capable of producing sharp and fast reversals in the pair.
◆
Brent crude US$120
A move to this level would likely intensify risk off behaviour across FX markets, putting further pressure on energy importing currencies including the NZD, EUR, and JPY.
◆
AUD/USD 0.7000
This level has historically attracted buying interest and may act as a near term directional reference for positioning in the pair.
Bottom line
The FX moves heading into April were shaped by a combination of geopolitical shock, yield divergence, and a repricing of central bank expectations that few had positioned for at the start of the quarter. The dollar's dual role as a high yielding and safe haven currency has put it in an unusually strong position, but that position is not unconditional.
One soft CPI print, one diplomatic breakthrough, or one labour market miss could change the tone quickly. Currency moves may remain highly data dependent and sensitive to overnight news flow from the Middle East, where developments can gap markets before the next session opens.
เข้าถึงจักรวาล FX ที่กว้างขึ้นและยืดหยุ่นเมื่อเงื่อนไขเปลี่ยนแปลง เปิดบัญชี · เข้าสู่ระบบ
ความผันผวนทางภูมิศาสตร์ได้ผลักดันให้นักลงทุนประเมินตำแหน่งที่รุนแรงการเติบโตอีกครั้งการสร้างโครงสร้างพื้นฐาน AI มูลค่า 650 พันล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐยังอยู่ภายใต้การตรวจสอบผลตอบแทนจากการลงทุนอย่างเข้มงวดเช่นกันหากฤดูกาลรายได้ทำให้ผิดหวังในด้านนั้น และหาก FOMC ส่งสัญญาณว่าจะหยุดยั้งเป็นเวลานาน การรวมกันอาจทดสอบความอยากความเสี่ยงในเดือนพฤษภาคม
Monitor this month (AEST)
◆
14 April - JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings
The first major bank to report. Management commentary on credit conditions, consumer spending, and the macro outlook will set the tone for financial sector earnings and broader market sentiment.
◆
15 April - Bank of America Q1 earnings
A read on consumer credit conditions and household financial health, particularly relevant given rising energy costs and the 4.4% unemployment rate.
◆
28-29 April - FOMC meeting and policy statement
The month's most consequential event. The statement and any updated forward guidance may effectively confirm whether rate cuts remain a possibility for 2026.
◆
Ongoing - Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic
A live indicator of energy supply risk. Any escalation or resolution carries immediate implications for oil prices, inflation expectations, and the Fed's options.
◆
Ongoing - Sovereign AI export restrictions
Developing policy around technology export curbs may affect capital expenditure plans for US technology firms, with knock-on implications for growth and employment in the sector.
The Bigger Picture
Geopolitical volatility has forced a rotation into energy and defence at the expense of growth oriented technology positions. The estimated US$650 billion AI infrastructure buildout is increasingly being scrutinised for returns on investment. If earnings season disappoints on that front, and if the FOMC signals a prolonged hold, the combination could test risk appetite heading into May.
April's US earnings season is landing in a market that wants more than a good story. JPMorgan has already set a high bar with a strong result, and attention is now shifting to the engine room of the S&P 500: AI infrastructure. Three companies are at the centre of that story.
Why this earnings window matters for AI
Microsoft, Alphabet and NVIDIA are not just participants in the AI cycle, they are building the physical and software architecture that other companies depend on: the chips, the cloud regions, the models and the tools. If this spending is going to deliver returns, the first signs may start to show in their quarterly results over the next few weeks.
Each company represents a different test.
Microsoft: Whether enterprise AI adoption is translating into revenue and margin expansion
Alphabet: Whether owning the full stack, from chips to cloud to distribution, is a durable advantage or simply an expensive position to defend
NVIDIA: Whether the hardware cycle is still holding, accelerating or starting to level out
In 2026, the question is no longer whether AI investment is happening, the capital commitments are substantial and already publicly stated. The question is whether that spending is generating returns quickly enough to justify the scale of those bets.
IMPORTANT: REPORTING SCHEDULES CAN CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. REPORTING DATES AND RELEASE TIMES ARE FROM COMPANY INVESTOR RELATIONS CALENDARS WHERE MARKED CONFIRMED; OTHERWISE THEY ARE GO MARKETS ESTIMATES. CONSENSUS EPS, REVENUE AND ANALYST-RANGE DATA ARE FROM THIRD-PARTY MARKET CONSENSUS SOURCES, AS OF 16 APRIL 2026 (AEST). COMPANY GUIDANCE, BACKLOG AND OPERATING METRICS ARE FROM THE LATEST COMPANY FILINGS OR RESULTS PRESENTATIONS UNLESS STATED OTHERWISE. FIGURES AND SCHEDULES MAY CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.
$MSFT| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Microsoft Corporation
NASDAQ | Technology | 29 Apr 2026
Confirmed
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$4.04
Consensus Revenue
US$81.40bn
AU/ASIA30 Apr | 6:05 am
US/LATAM29 Apr | 4:05 pm
Market Intelligence: $MSFT
Analysis: Microsoft price drivers and scenarios
Azure Growth Target
37-38%
Constant currency projection
AI Contribution
+6-8 pts
Azure revenue from AI services
FY26 Capex
US$146bn
Total infrastructure spending
AVG
LOW US$3.86AVG US$4.04HIGH US$4.14
Microsoft is being tested on a specific question: can it turn heavy AI spending into margin expansion? A result above US$4.14 could ease concerns over "capex fatigue" and demonstrate whether Azure growth is re-accelerating alongside enterprise AI adoption.
Factors that could move the markets
Azure growth rate
Watch if constant-currency growth re-accelerates above 39%, suggesting AI workloads are filling new capacity rather than sitting idle.
Signal: Capacity Utilisation
Workplace agent adoption
The shift to autonomous agents is central. Clear enterprise uptake in Dynamics 365 supports the high-tier subscription thesis.
Signal: Software Monetisation
Maia 200 cost savings
If the in-house AI chip is lowering inference costs at production levels, gross margins may start to recover from recent compression.
Watch: Gross Margin Recovery
Regulatory backdrop
Ongoing scrutiny of cloud bundling practices remains a potential headwind; management commentary here is vital for the long-term view.
Watch: Bundling Compliance
Sentiment Analysis · Microsoft Corp.
Interactive scenario analysis: $MSFT
Select earnings outcome
AI Scaling Proof
Strong result, backed by real AI progress
EPS above US$4.14 and Azure re-acceleration above 39% could support the view that AI spending is starting to translate into commercial returns. Workplace Agents show measurable ROI and FY26 guidance is raised.
EPS Outcome
Above US$4.14
Cloud Signal
Accelerating
Guidance
Raised
Possible reaction
Strong rally
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 16 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Expanded Coverage
Beyond the Chipmakers
As the "show me the money" year unfolds, discover how AI demand is impacting Tesla, NextEra, and Exxon.
Alphabet has transformed from a search business into a sprawling AI infrastructure play, and this result will test whether that transformation is delivering. The US$185 billion capex forecast for 2026 is extraordinary, close to double last year's spending. EPS is expected to decline slightly year on year, precisely because that infrastructure spending is consuming capital. The question is whether Google Cloud's growth is fast enough to show a credible path back to margin recovery, and whether Ironwood, the seventh-generation custom AI chip, is proving its cost-per-query advantage at scale.
$GOOGL| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Alphabet Inc.
NASDAQ | Technology | 29 Apr 2026
Confirmed
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$2.64
Consensus Revenue
US$92.14bn
AU/ASIA30 Apr | 6:30 am
US/LATAM29 Apr | 4:30 pm
Market Intelligence: $GOOGL
Analysis: Alphabet price drivers and scenarios
Cloud growth
48% YoY
Compared with last quarter
Ironwood TPU
10x peak
Vs previous-generation chip
2026 Capex
US$185bn
Double last year's spending
AVG
LOW US$2.50AVG US$2.64HIGH US$2.80
Alphabet has shifted to being viewed as a broader AI infrastructure play. The question is whether Cloud growth can support a path back to margin recovery while the massive US$185bn infrastructure buildout absorbs capital.
Factors that could move the markets
Google Cloud momentum
Markets are watching if the 48% growth rate holds, specifically among customers using Ironwood TPUs for large-scale AI.
Signal: Enterprise AI Adoption
Search & AI overview
If compute-intensive AI summaries are monetising through ads, it supports core search economics in the AI era.
Focus: Search Economics
Capex & margin trajectory
With free cash flow under pressure from US$185bn capex, markets want to know when infrastructure investment will moderate.
Watch: Spending Ceiling
DOJ antitrust risk
Management commentary on the legal timeline for Chrome or Android divestiture appeals will influence how risk is priced.
Watch: Regulatory Remedies
Sentiment Analysis · Alphabet Inc.
Interactive scenario analysis: $GOOGL
Select earnings outcome
Efficiency Proof
Ironwood efficiency drives upside
EPS above US$2.80 and cloud growth above 45% suggest Ironwood is cutting costs and strengthening Google’s advantage faster than expected.
EPS outcome
Above US$2.80
Cloud Signal
Strong growth
Waymo
Accelerating
Reaction
Sentiment improves
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 16 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
NVIDIA: the hardware cycle read through
NVIDIA is no longer simply a chip company. It has become what analysts now describe as the central bank of compute, the entity whose product determines how much AI capacity the world can actually deploy.
The upcoming Q1 FY2027 result will test whether the new Vera Rubin R100 GPU architecture, which entered mass production ahead of schedule, is already contributing to revenue, and whether NVIDIA can sustain gross margins above 75% as inference, rather than training, becomes the dominant workload. Inference is more competitive and more price-sensitive than training, so margin resilience here matters.
$NVDA| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
NVIDIA Corporation
NASDAQ | Semiconductors | 20 May 2026
Confirmed
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$1.70
Consensus Revenue
US$78.42bn
AU/ASIA21 May | 6:30 am
US/LATAM20 May | 4:30 pm
Market Intelligence: $NVDA
Analysis: NVIDIA price drivers and scenarios
Revenue growth
73% YoY
Last quarter benchmark
Data centre share
91%+
Share of total revenue
Rubin R100
In production
Mass production began April 2026
AVG
LOW US$76bnAVG US$78bnHIGH US$81bn+
NVIDIA’s outlook depends on whether Rubin R100 can keep gross margins above 75% as inference becomes a bigger part of demand. Because inference is more price-sensitive than training, margins are the key test.
Factors that could move the markets
Rubin ramp-up
Watch whether Rubin production can scale smoothly without disrupting the Blackwell transition.
Signal: supply chain continuity
Inference margins
The key test is whether NVIDIA can keep gross margins above 75% as inference revenue grows.
Signal: pricing power holds up
Sovereign AI demand
Government-backed investment in Europe and the Middle East could broaden the base beyond hyperscalers.
Signal: market expansion
CUDA regulatory risk
Any US or European scrutiny of NVIDIA’s software advantage could move the stock regardless of the revenue result.
Signal: software moat under review
Sentiment Analysis · NVIDIA Corp.
Interactive scenario analysis: $NVDA
Select earnings outcome
Rubin ramp supports growth
Rubin ramp supports growth
Revenue above US$81 billion may suggest the Rubin ramp is tracking ahead of expectations. That could support the view that AI demand is broadening into sovereign AI and enterprise markets, helping extend visibility into 2027.
Revenue Outcome
Above US$81bn
Gross Margin
Above 75%
Workload
Inference strong
Reaction
Positive read-through
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 16 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Why this reporting window matters for the broader market
Microsoft and Alphabet report on the same evening, 29 April, making the overnight session into 30 April one of the most information-dense points of the year for equity markets. For Australian traders, both results should be available by 6:30 am AEST on Thursday 30 April. That means price reactions may already be visible in US futures before the ASX opens.
NVIDIA reports later, in May, but it casts a long shadow over everything in between. The guidance the company gave for Q1 FY2027, US$78 billion in revenue, has set a benchmark the market has been tracking for months. If Microsoft and Alphabet's results suggest AI infrastructure demand has softened, that could reset expectations heading into NVIDIA's call. If both beat expectations and signal accelerating cloud growth, that could lift the floor for what NVIDIA may report.
That interconnection is what makes this cluster different from most earnings windows. The results do not just affect the individual companies. They also signal the health of an investment supercycle that has driven global equity market leadership for the past two years.
What could shift the picture
Three risks could change the narrative regardless of how the numbers print. Each one is worth understanding before the results land.
1
Capex fatigue
If both Microsoft and Alphabet report in line or below expectations while reaffirming enormous spending plans, the market may start pricing the risk that AI monetisation is slower than the spending implies. That is not a stock-specific concern. It would be a broader de-rating event, affecting the valuations of companies across the technology sector that are priced on the assumption that AI returns are coming and coming soon.
2
Regulatory escalation
The FTC investigation into Microsoft, the DOJ case against Alphabet, and emerging EU scrutiny of NVIDIA's CUDA software ecosystem are all active. A material legal development before the earnings calls, whether a new filing, a remedy announcement or a court ruling, could overshadow the financial results entirely. Regulatory risk in this sector is not theoretical. It is live and moving.
3
Competition from custom silicon
Microsoft's Maia 200 chip, Alphabet's Ironwood TPU, Amazon's Trainium and Meta's custom accelerators are all reducing how much the large cloud companies depend on NVIDIA hardware. If any of these companies signals a meaningful shift in its GPU procurement plans during the earnings call, that could create uncertainty around NVIDIA's forward order book, even if its own Q1 FY2027 results beat expectations.
The 2026 Reality Check
$MSFT
AI spend is shifting from cost to competitive advantage. The question is whether margins can follow.
$GOOGL
Vertical integration from chips to search to cloud may prove to be a moat, or an expensive position to defend.
$NVDA
This is the pulse of the AI hardware cycle, and a test of whether Rubin can keep the supercycle alive into 2027.
Bottom Line
Microsoft and Alphabet report on the same evening, 29 April. NVIDIA follows in late May. Together, they may offer the clearest read yet on whether the AI infrastructure buildout is generating returns fast enough to justify the extraordinary scale of capital being committed. The earnings per share (EPS) number is important. What management says about AI monetisation timelines, capex trajectories and competitive positioning may matter more.
Your next earnings setup starts here
Stay ahead of major beats, misses, and market surprises. Log in to your terminal, open a new account, or explore our dedicated earnings academy.
ในปี 2026 ความต้องการพลังงาน AI กำลังผลักดันระบบสาธารณูปโภค การจัดเก็บ และกำลังการผลิตกริดมุ่งเน้นที่คมชัดขึ้น ในขณะเดียวกันความเสี่ยงในการจัดหาน้ำมันทำให้ความมั่นคงด้านพลังงานกลับมาสู่การสนทนาของตลาด
IMPORTANT: REPORTING SCHEDULES CAN CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. REPORTING DATES AND RELEASE TIMES ARE FROM COMPANY INVESTOR RELATIONS CALENDARS WHERE MARKED CONFIRMED; OTHERWISE THEY ARE GO MARKETS ESTIMATES. CONSENSUS EPS, REVENUE AND ANALYST-RANGE DATA ARE FROM THIRD-PARTY MARKET CONSENSUS SOURCES, AS OF 14 APRIL 2026 (AEST). COMPANY GUIDANCE, BACKLOG AND OPERATING METRICS ARE FROM THE LATEST COMPANY FILINGS OR RESULTS PRESENTATIONS UNLESS STATED OTHERWISE. FIGURES AND SCHEDULES MAY CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.
$TSLA| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Tesla Inc.
NASDAQ | Consumer Discretionary | 23 Apr 2026
Confirmed
Global Release Countdown (AMC)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$0.41
Consensus Revenue
US$22.26bn
AU/ASIA24 Apr | 6:05 am
US/LATAM23 Apr | 4:05 pm
Market Intelligence: $TSLA
Analysis: Tesla price drivers and scenarios
Auto Gross Margin
17-19%
Target floor, excl. credits
Megapack Growth
+25% YoY
Projected energy deployment
Analyst range
US$0.32-0.48
EPS estimate range
AVG
LOW US$0.32AVG US$0.41HIGH US$0.48
The US$0.16 analyst range shows there is still a lot of uncertainty. The main question is how weaker vehicle deliveries compare with stronger, higher-margin energy storage contributions. A result above US$0.48 would suggest the autonomy and battery story is improving faster than the bear case expects.
Key factors that could move the result
Automotive gross margin
This is the most important number for Tesla’s core business. Markets want to see whether price cuts have started to settle, or whether margins are still under pressure.
Benchmark: 17% (excluding credits)
Energy storage (Megapacks)
This is the more durable growth story. Strong Megapack deployment and battery margins could help offset weaker vehicle deliveries
Focus: Storage growth versus pressure in the auto business
Full Self-Driving (FSD) & Robotaxi
This is the main narrative driver. Markets will watch for updates on FSD adoption and the robotaxi timeline to judge whether the move towards “physical AI” is becoming more credible.
Watch: Timing for next-generation autonomy technology
Regulatory credits
This is a quality check on the result. If EPS is boosted too much by credit sales, some traders may see the beat as less durable.
Watch: How much credit sales contribute to final EPS
Trade Execution: $TSLA
Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Bull case
EPS above US$0.45, energy margins at 20%+ | FSD take rates rising
The result clears the top-tier analyst range. Commentary focuses on FSD scaling and Megapack production ramps rather than vehicle discounting. FY26 guidance is reaffirmed.
Possible reaction: stronger momentum, with short covering adding support
Base case
EPS between US$0.38 and US$0.43, auto margins stable | Near target
The result is close to expectations, but there is no major surprise from the energy business. The market stays focused on the robotaxi timeline. The initial move may be limited if the product mix looks unchanged.
Possible reaction: range-bound trading or a muted early response
Bear case
EPS below US$0.35, auto margins drop below 16% | Signs of FSD delays
The result misses even cautious expectations. Rising inventory suggests more discounting may be needed. The market starts to question whether the level of spending on AI and autonomy is too high.
Possible reaction: rotation out of the stock, especially if growth confidence weakens
Sentiment Analysis · Tesla Inc.
Interactive scenario analysis: $TSLA
Select earnings outcome
Growth momentum
Strong result, helped by energy and FSD
FSD and Energy do better than expected, which helps offset weaker car deliveries. Management gives the market more confidence that autonomy is getting closer to real revenue. Auto margins staying above 17% would also help.
EPS Outcome
Above US$0.45
Energy Signal
On track
Margins
At or above 17%
Possible reaction
Strong rally
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 14 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
Expanded Coverage
AI isn’t the only trade this earnings season.
From data centres to defence, see why JPMorgan and the big defence players are on our radar for March.
If Tesla is the market’s test of whether physical AI can become a business, NextEra is a test of whether the power buildout behind AI is starting to show up more clearly in utility economics.
That is what makes the shift from Tesla to NextEra interesting: one is about ambition and platform narrative and the other is about power, contracts, infrastructure and return on capital.
$NEE| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
NextEra Energy, Inc.
NYSE | Utilities | 24 Apr 2026
Confirmed
Global Release Countdown (BMO)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$0.91
Consensus Revenue
US$7.17bn
AUSTRALIA (AEST)24 Apr | 9:35 pm
ASIA (UTC+8)24 Apr | 7:35 pm
Market Intelligence: $NEE
Analysis: NEE price drivers and scenarios
Backlog
About 29.8 GW
Total Energy Resources backlog
Growth target
8%+ a year
Adjusted EPS growth through 2032
Analyst range
US$0.88-1.06
Q1 EPS estimate range
AVG
LOW US$0.88AVG US$0.92HIGH US$1.06
The main question is simple: can NextEra turn big growth plans into real progress? Traders want to see whether rising power demand, especially from AI, is starting to show up in results, contracts and project execution.
Trade Execution: $NEE
Key signals to watch
Contract conversion
One of the biggest proof points. Markets want to see whether strong customer interest is turning into signed agreements and clearer revenue visibility.
Signal: More large-load agreements signed
Natural gas and power buildout
Traders will watch for clearer milestones on the approved gas buildout and capacity plan to meet rising power demand.
Focus: Buildout timeline and project execution
Funding and capital discipline
Investors will want to know whether funding plans look manageable after the recent equity raise and the impact of financing costs.
Watch: Funding risk and capital pressure
Rate base and earnings outlook
Markets look for healthy rate-base growth and signs that rising demand can support long-term earnings growth.
Focus: Guidance, rate-base growth and EPS visibility
Sentiment Analysis · NextEra Energy
Interactive scenario analysis: $NEE
Select earnings outcome
Upside momentum
Strong result, backed by real progress
EPS comes in above US$1.06. Management shows better contract progress and clearer steps on new power projects. That would suggest the backlog is moving closer to real revenue.
EPS Outcome
Above US$1.06
Infrastructure Signal
More contracts signed
Possible reaction
Sentiment improves
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 14 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
From power to oil
If NextEra reflects the electricity side of the real economy story, Exxon Mobil reflects the fuel side. That matters in a market where supply risk can still reset inflation expectations, shift sector leadership and change how traders think about defensiveness.
$XOM| Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD
Exxon Mobil Corporation
NYSE | Energy | 29 Apr 2026
Estimated
Global Release Countdown (BMO)
00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$1.66
Consensus Revenue
US$82.47bn
AUSTRALIA (AEST)29 Apr | 8:30 pm
ASIA (UTC+8)29 Apr | 6:30 pm
Market Intelligence: $XOM
Analysis: XOM price drivers and scenarios
Liquids pricing effect
US$1.9-2.3bn
Support from stronger oil prices
Energy products timing
-US$3.3-4.1bn
Downstream timing drag
Analyst range
US$1.60-$1.85
Q1 EPS estimate range
AVG
LOW US$1.60AVG US$1.66HIGH US$1.85
The key question for Exxon Mobil is straightforward: can stronger oil and gas pricing offset weaker volumes and downstream pressure? For traders, this is a test of earnings quality, if prices do the lifting, the market may still want proof that operations are holding up.
Trade Execution: $XOM
Key signals to watch
Realised pricing
Markets want to see whether stronger oil and gas prices were enough to offset weaker production volumes.
Signal: Price strength vs Volume pressure
Timing and quality
Commentary on whether the downstream timing drag is temporary or a sign of deeper margin pressure.
Focus: Accounting effect vs Headwind
Guyana and Upstream
Markets want steady production growth from Guyana to keep the long-term story intact.
Watch: Delivery and Resilience
Refining margins
Even if crude helps, weaker refining or chemicals performance could limit the overall upside.
Focus: Downstream offset levels
Sentiment Analysis · Exxon Mobil
Interactive scenario analysis: $XOM
Select earnings outcome
Pricing offsets disruption
Strong result, with pricing support doing enough
EPS above US$1.85. Higher realised pricing more than offsets weaker volumes, and management suggests timing drag was less severe than expected. Upstream updates stay constructive.
EPS Outcome
Above US$1.85
Timing Impact
Smaller than feared
Possible reaction
Sentiment improves
Sources & Data Methodology
Sources: Reporting dates from company investor relations calendars; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers as at 14 April 2026 (AEDT). Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
The Bottom Line
The 2026 Reality Check
This late-April energy cluster is about more than three company reports. It is a live test of what the market wants to pay for in 2026.
Tesla ($TSLA)
Autonomy and energy shifting from promise to proof.
NextEra ($NEE)
Electricity demand turning into practical utility growth.
Exxon ($XOM)
Oil strength translating into durable earnings power.
Taken together, they offer a useful read on the part of the market that looks more physical, more capital-intensive and, for many traders, more real.
Your next earnings setup starts here
Stay ahead of major beats, misses, and market surprises. Log in to your terminal, open a new account, or explore our dedicated earnings academy.
As tariff shocks collide with a ten year extreme in oil positioning, the margin for error is zero. See the technical markers and safe haven pivots defining the current risk environment.
135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark
vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow (20M bbl/day)
6.75 daysof Hormuz throughput covered
6.75 days
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 days
vs. Global oil consumption (104M bbl/day)
1.3 daysof world demand covered
1.3 days
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 days
vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (1M bbl/day)
135 daysof full SPR release pace covered
135 days — but SPR exists to replace this role
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 days
135M
idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)
~33%
of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit
<31 hrs
is all idle storage against global daily consumption
Indicative market trajectories based on disruption severity
Scenarios for the weeks ahead
1–2 WEEKS
Ceasefire catch-up
Markets face catch-up repricing. Brent could consolidate in the US$105–US$115 range as risk premia unwind. Brent may trade lower (US$95–US$110) if strategic stocks bridge the temporary shortfall.
2–4 WEEKS
Infrastructure blitz
Shifts to structural supply shock. Brent moving toward US$150–US$200 cannot be ruled out. This is the stagflation trigger where energy costs constrain central bank flexibility.
STRUCTURAL
Geopolitical floor
Iran's transit fee demand creates a permanent input cost. The pre-crisis price structure (US$60–US$70) may not return, embedded in insurance and freight rates.
Critical Threshold
US$120 remains the level at which energy inflation becomes a direct Federal Reserve policy problem.
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