The euro against the US dollar (EUR/USD) is a primary asset through which the market expresses expectations regarding US monetary policy. If the yield differential between the United States and the Eurozone narrows, the US dollar tends to weaken while the euro strengthens.

• Bullish Scenario
  If Jackson Hole confirms a cautious Fed stance and inflation continues to ease, markets may further reduce the probability of future rate hikes. Under this scenario, the US dollar could become less attractive and EUR/USD could benefit from renewed buying flows.
• Bearish Scenario
  If Chair Warsh signals that inflation remains too high and that a rate hike by December remains a realistic possibility, the US dollar could strengthen, placing pressure on the euro.

The US dollar against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) is sensitive to yield differentials between US Treasury bonds and Japanese government bonds. Fed fund expectations and broader rate divide dynamics directly influence the direction of the pair.

• Bullish Scenario
  If markets become convinced that another Fed rate hike is coming, US yields could move higher, supporting the dollar against the yen.
• Bearish Scenario
  If inflation continues to cool and the probability of further hikes declines, the yen could recover and push the pair lower.

The British pound against the US dollar (GBP/USD) is influenced by both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Fed, but the US dollar remains a primary driver. Changes in Fed expectations continue to impact the pair.

• Bullish Scenario
  A less aggressive Fed stance could weaken the US dollar and support GBP/USD.
• Bearish Scenario
  If Chair Warsh adopts a hawkish tone and markets increase the likelihood of further tightening, the US dollar could strengthen at the expense of sterling.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX100) is sensitive to interest rate expectations. Large technology companies are heavily evaluated against AI capex spending versus revenue, and their valuations are strongly influenced by movements in government bond yields. Long-term Treasury yields remain near multi-year highs, and Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech could directly influence the Treasury yield curve.

• Bullish Scenario
  A Fed pause combined with stable yields could support elevated valuations across technology and AI stocks, potentially pushing the index higher.
• Bearish Scenario
  Higher probabilities of future rate hikes would likely compress valuation multiples and increase pressure on growth-oriented mega-cap stocks.

US small-cap companies represented by the Russell 2000 Index (US2000) depend more heavily on bank credit and financing costs than large corporations. As a result, they are often among the beneficiaries of a less aggressive Fed.

• Bullish Scenario
  A prolonged Fed pause could improve financing conditions and support a recovery among smaller US companies.
• Bearish Scenario
  A renewed increase in rate hike expectations would place additional pressure on highly leveraged companies and weigh on valuations.

Nvidia Corp (NVDA) remains a leading symbol of the hardware buildout amid the ongoing AI chip war. The Fed, UBS, and Morgan Stanley continue to view AI investment as a key driver of US economic growth.

• Bullish Scenario
  If financing costs stop rising and the Fed confirms an extended pause, investors may continue rewarding the AI sector and its premium valuations.
• Bearish Scenario
  Rising bond yields driven by stronger rate hike expectations could trigger a compression in valuation multiples, even if company fundamentals remain solid.

SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is directly exposed to financing costs and broader consumer credit trends. Federal Reserve policy has a significant impact on the company’s operating environment.

• Bullish Scenario
  A stable Fed and normalised financial conditions could support business growth and improve investor sentiment.
• Bearish Scenario
  A restrictive interest rate environment would increase pressure on consumer borrowing and lending activity, weighing on the stock.

Gold is mainly influenced by real interest rates and the strength of the US dollar. When traders evaluate gold against alternative asset classes, an ending to the Fed’s tightening cycle generally provides structural support.

• Bullish Scenario
  Lower probabilities of future rate hikes combined with a weaker US dollar could support additional buying interest in gold.
• Bearish Scenario
  If markets increase expectations for further Fed tightening and real yields move higher, gold could lose part of its relative attractiveness.

Crude oil is affected by Fed policy mainly through economic growth expectations and the US dollar, alongside shifting supply-demand balance assessments from OPEC and the IEA. A restrictive monetary policy tends to slow global energy demand.

• Bullish Scenario
  If the US economy continues growing around 2.1% and the Fed leaves rates unchanged, energy demand could remain solid and support crude oil prices.
• Bearish Scenario
  Higher probabilities of Fed tightening or an economic slowdown could weigh on the outlook for crude oil demand.