市场资讯及洞察

Coal and Gas prices have surged and joined gold and oil as demand surges due to the supply shortages stemming from the Russia and Ukraine conflict. The global indices were up overall as the market still remains unsure of how to react to the unfolding crisis. In Europe, the FTSE provided strength with a 1.36% gain and the DAX provided a small bounce rising 0.69%.

In America the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ both saw decent rises, moving 1.79% and 1.62% respectively. The US markets responded positively after Jerome Powell testified that the Federal Reserve still intends to increase interest rates later this month by 25 basis points. Mr.

Powell did, however, allow for some flexibility in the face of the increased conflict. The biggest mover was coal which shot up almost 33% to $400 on the back of the energy crisis. It has led to many countries attempting to scavenge for coal reserves.

Germany is poised to create coal power reserves and Italy announced it may reopen some of its previously shut coal plants. The Aussie dollar has benefited from this and other rises in commodity prices with AUDUSD touching on 0.73c overnight. Oil prices reached as high as $114.00 and touched the 8 year high before settling in at $111.

This is after OPEC decided overnight to hold production level at the current level leaving the potential shortfall in demand unaccounted for, claiming that that demand for oil is being driven by geopolitics and not fundamentals. The price of wheat and aluminium also hit 14-year highs overnight and Gold continues to remain steady at $1,927 per ounce. Bitcoin saw a slight slump and is down 1.47% although is still very much moving upward due to the momentum from Russian investors.

The Ruble saw some strength as it saw upward of 5% gains against many other currency pairs. The US dollar continues to be strong on the back of the Federal reserve and from the risk aversion seen in the market at the moment.

Equity markets US stocks jumped overnight to reach record levels as stronger than expected print on retail sales and a sharp improvement in the number of new jobless claims cheered the investors. Source: Yahoo Finance US reporting season kicked off this week with impressive results so far from Finance heavyweights JP Morgan, Goldman, BOA and Citi, all handily beating estimates. The week's economic figures, strong corporate earnings and comments from Fed Chairman Powell regarding the commitment of the central bank's easy money policies have seen US markets make all time highs on an almost daily basis.

European stocks also hit record highs this week with the EUROSTOXX 50 breaking 4000 and having rallied nearly 80% from the pandemic lows in March 2020. Analysts are confident there is further upside in Europe as prices remain low compared to the U.S and vaccination rates climb to catch up to the U.S. “European equities are set to benefit from a sharp acceleration in euro area GDP (gross domestic product) growth over the coming months, but that is due to the boost from reopening and the support from a powerful U.S. recovery, rather than a function of the dispersal of NGEU funds,” two analysts at Bank of America said in a note to clients. World equity indices are mostly up for the week with only Asian indices lagging.

Traders will be watching today's upcoming Chinese figures, including the all-important GDP figure, which is expected to be the highest quarterly economic growth since it began releasing such figures 30 years ago. Source: Bloomberg Forex markets The US dollar weakened dramatically during the week, under performing all major currencies bar the Canadian dollar. Despite a strong week in Oil, current COVID lock down measures in Canada are causing a headwind for the Loonie.

Source: Bloomberg The recent run up in the US dollar index in tandem with rising 10 year bond yields has reversed in April as yields stabilise and are starting to decline. Overnight 10 year Treasury yields dropped to 1.57%, its lowest level in a month. Source: Bloomberg Source: GO MT4 Commodities Gold Spot gold (XAUUSD) rallied this week on the back of a weaker US dollar.

US CPI figures also came in higher than expected this week, giving gold an extra boost as it is seen as a traditional inflation hedge. Source: GO MT4 Oil US crude prices rallied strongly this week on continued expectation of a global economic recovery. Agreed production cuts have also given Oil a boost as OPEC is holding back just over 7 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia voluntarily cutting an additional 1 million barrels per day.

From next month OPEC+ will start gradually curbing production cuts. In May OPEC+ will allow an additional 350,000 barrels per day to join the markets. Source: GO MT4 Bitcoin The highly anticipated Coin base (COIN) IPO launched this week, with investors piling into the new stock.

This mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies in general and Bitcoin in particular saw strong buying in Bitcoin pushing it through the 60k resistance level and hitting all time highs just short of $65k USD. Source: GO MT4 Monday, 19 April 2021 Indicative Index Dividends Dividends are in Points ASX200 WS30 US500 US2000 NDX100 CAC40 STOXX50 0 0 0 0.005 0 2.808 1.234 ESP35 ITA40 FTSE100 DAX30 HK50 JP225 INDIA50 0 79.017 0 0 0 0 0

The market closed the week down overall as volatility continues due to the Russia and Ukraine conflict. The Dow Jones dipped 0.5%, the S&P500 fell 0.8%, and the NASDAQ performed the worst, declining 1.7%, despite generally positive sentiment from the USA concerning the employment figures released on Friday. Employers added 678,000 jobs to the workforce in February, and unemployment was lowered to 3.8% beating most analysts' expectations.

CPI figures will be on the agenda next week as inflation continues to garner attention. European stocks were hit the hardest, with the DAX losing more than 10% over the week and 4.41% on Friday, as it continues to be hit hard by the conflict. The FTSE also had a tough week and closed Friday down 3.48%.

Commodities had a belter week and got close to their largest rise in prices since 1960. European natural gas more than doubled in price, wheat soared 40%, and oil increased 20%. These increases may have an impact on the energy and commodity sector in the Australian market going forward.

The surge in energy prices has occurred despite economic sanctions that have not targeted Russia’s energy exports. Gold finished the week exceptionally strong, closing at the upper end of the weekly range towards $1,970. The price continues to provide a haven for investors as the volatility remains.

Oil followed its strong closing towards the high of the week at $117.96. Cryptocurrency Bitcoin had shown strength earlier in the week, but it could not hold its highs around $45,000 BTC/USD. It closed the week below $40,000.

Ethereum followed a similar pattern falling to $2,593. FOREX The EUR/USD had a massive drop falling -1.23%. The Euro struggled against all of the currency pairs, recording big drops for the week.

The GBP also was a weak performer for the week. Due to their geographical exposure, the EUR and GBP have been the most sensitive to news from the conflict. The AUD and NZD performed well for the week and have seen a nice move into recent resistance.

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) announced its latest earnings results after the closing bell on Thursday for its second quarter fiscal year 2022 ended June 3. The American software company reported revenue of $4.386 billion for the quarter (up 14% year-over-year), beating analyst forecast of $4.345 billion. Earnings per share also reported above analyst expectations at $3.35 per share vs. $3.31 per share estimate. ''Adobe achieved record Q2 revenue with strong demand across Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud,'' Shantanu Narayen, chairman and CEO of Adobe said following the latest financial results. ''We are winning in our established businesses and seeing significant momentum in new categories from content authoring for a broad base of creators to PDF functionality on the web to the leading real-time customer data platform for global enterprises,'' Narayen concluded. ''We delivered another quarter of strong financial results, with greater than $2 billion in operating cash flows demonstrating the strength of Adobe’s growing revenue streams and financial discipline,'' said Dan Durn, executive vice president and CFO of Adobe. ''Our operating model continues to fuel consistent growth, enabling the company to invest in category-leading cloud solutions and emerging innovations that are gaining traction in the marketplace,'' Durn added.

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) chart Share price of Adobe was down by around 2% at the market open on Friday, trading at $357.37 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month -10.80% 3 Month -21.47% Year-to-date -37.22% 1 Year -37.06% Adobe price targets UBS $415 Stifel $500 Baird $450 Deutsche Bank $500 Wells Fargo $425 Mizuho $480 Citigroup $380 Adobe is the 59 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $167.63 billion. You can trade Adobe Inc. (ADBE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

Sources: Adobe Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

Accenture (ACN) reported its latest financial results before the market open in the US on Thursday. The Irish-American professional services company reported revenue of $16.159 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2022 vs. $16.04 billion expected. Earnings per share missed analyst expectations for the quarter at $2.79 per share vs. $2.86 per share estimate. ''Our very strong financial results for the third quarter reflect continued broad-based demand across markets, services, and industries, and the continued recognition of the outstanding talent of our 710,000 people.

We continue to gain significant market share, and our services have never been more relevant as our clients turn to us as the trusted partner for the solutions they need to accelerate growth and become more resilient and efficient,'' Julie Sweet, CEO of the company said in a press release after the earnings announcement. Accenture (ACN) chart Shares of Accenture were down by around 1% during the trading day on Thursday at $282.45 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month -3.00% 3 Month -13.07% Year-to-date -31.78% 1 Year -3.01% Accenture price targets Deutsche Bank $364 Cowen & Co. $330 Baird $340 Morgan Stanley $390 RBC Capital $435 Goldman Sachs $386 Barclays $455 Accenture is the 52 nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $179.21 billion.

You can trade Accenture (ACN) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Accenture, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

November 2021, cryptos are regularly making all-time highs amid a mania like euphoria that increased institutional uptake and a newly launched ETF that crypto traders believed would drive prices even higher towards some of the uber bulls loftier 2021 targets. Two months is a long time in the crypto world and they have lived up to their volatile reputation with the two largest tokens (BTC and ETH) having lost almost half of their value since then. The broader crypto sector has also suffered with more than $1 trillion in losses amid an accelerating panic that the expected Federal reserve tightening cycle will lead to another deep crypto correction.

The question crypto traders are asking is “where to from here?”, is this the start of a deep correction, or an opportunity to Buy the dip? Source: Tradingview While the selling has been relentless since November, it picked up pace after the Federal reserve released their latest minutes in early January. The hawkish tone of the Fed, where it outlined its intention to not only hike rates but to accelerate the tapering of its asset purchase program, saw a broad sell-off of the riskier “bubble” assets, with bitcoin getting hit especially hard amid the rout.

This rapid decline has pushed Bitcoin’s RSI indicator to an extreme oversold level, a level not seen since the pandemic crash of March of 2020. Source: Tradingview Also bringing the price down to within touching distance of the all important, major support level of around 30k USD per token, a support that held previous sell offs in 2021. Source: GO MT4 While these technical may give confidence to the bulls that a bounce is due, there is one interesting fact that has become apparent in the last 12 months.

Cryptos have increasingly transformed from relatively uncorrelated assets providing diversification during market turbulence, into what is effectively a high beta stock. The increasing BTC correlation with high growth tech stocks means that not only do traders need to take Bitcoin fundamentals and technicals into account, but also the fundamentals/technicals of the high growth tech sector as well, the chart below shows this BTC correlation with the FAANG basket (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google) Source: Tradingview One of the main reasons for this correlation is the increase in institutional adoption of cryptos, the same institutions that are now facing margin calls on their tech holdings, are also dumping cryptos to provide much needed liquidity. Antoni Trenchev,, co-founder of Nexo, cites Bitcoin’s correlation to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which right now is near the highest in a decade. “Bitcoin is being battered by a wave of risk-off sentiment.

For further cues, keep an eye on traditional markets,” he said. “Fear and unease among investors is palpable.” The evidence is growing that Bitcoin and altcoins should be classed as risk assets rather than safe havens. Along with fears of central bank tightening and an increasing liquidation of correlated risk assets, crypto also has had to deal with a relentlessly pessimistic news cycle. Recently regulators from Spain, the U.K., Russia and Singapore all announced regulations and interventions that could undermine crypto uptake and growth in those regions.

Out of the US as well, cryptos are under scrutiny with federal agencies tasked with assessing the risks and opportunities that cryptos pose in a report due as early as February. It's not all doom and gloom with cryptos though, crypto bulls and many analysts point out that on all previous occasions of crypto carnage, they eventually rebounded to new all time highs. “At some point, sellers will become exhausted and the market could see some capitulation soon”, said Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co. “When that happens, the institutions will come back in in a meaningful way,” he said. “ Once the asset class becomes more washed-out, they’ll have a lot more confidence to come back in and buy them. They know that cryptos are not going away, so they’ll have to move back into them before long.” Ironically, the real support could come from the Federal reserve as they realise that hawkish tone they have set may be to much for an economy that is slowing and could pivot to the dovish side in this week's FOMC meeting, a pivot which would be expected to send risk assets sharply higher, cryptos with it. “If we see a bigger selloff in equities, expect the Fed to verbally intervene to calm nerves and that’s when Bitcoin and other cryptos will bounce.” Said Nexo's Trenchev.

This effect could be seen in Mondays (24/01) huge turn around in equities and Bitcoin, bitcoin soared $3000 from its low to finish positive for the session, this was on the back of rate hike expectations dropping dramatically during the day as the market started to price in a backed into a corner Fed striking a more dovish tone than previously expected in Thursdays FOMC meeting as the below chart shows. Source: Tradingview Thursday's Fed meeting will be pivotal for the near term direction of Bitcoin and Cryptos in general, and any serious crypto trader should be tuning in. 2022 will be an exciting year for cryptos, with strong forces on both sides of the bull / bear argument. The bears have a seemingly endless negative news cycle, with regulatory and market risk weighing heavily on crypto prices.

The bulls have the Fed, a Fed that has shown in the past that the faster markets crash, the faster they panic and move to stabilise the stock market, this will also benefit other risk assets, Bitcoin and other cryptos among them. Whichever side a trader picks, they will have to be nimble and be across the fundamentals and technicals of the broader market, not just the crypto chart they are looking at.