市场资讯及洞察

热门话题今天我们来说说这为啥澳洲再次加息了，房价还在上涨。其实这话题本身并不是和金融交易有太直接的关系，但是刚好上周末有个朋友问我一个问题，让我联想到这一定是一个大家都会问到的问题。朋友的原话是这样的：Mike, 想请教您个事情，您有什么股票长线看好的吗 ? 10年以上那种。相信很多朋友一定也会想问，如果要选择一个股票投10年，澳洲有什么股票可以选？我回答只是一句话，但是我得先介绍一下我思考的逻辑：就是澳洲过去10年，甚至于未来10年，经济发展的主要有利因素有哪些？我们去除所有盘根错节的分析，答案并不难回答，无非就是：靠地下的矿产，和靠强大的移民政策两点。前者更大程度还需要依靠其他因素——买家的经济情况。而后者则完全由澳洲自己来决定人数的多少。所以最后得出的答案也是很简单，如果要选择10年以上的投资，如果选一个股票，我会选联邦银行CBA，如果选两个股票，我会选CBA和BHP。当然，如果你有更多的资金，更丰富的投资经验，那什么锂电池啊，铀矿啊，天然气啊等等都可以考虑。但是如果答案只有一个，而且面对的是广大普通人群，那联邦银行CBA绝对是正确答案，再保守点，加个之一吧。而选择CBA的依据，其实就是看重其占有了房贷业务55%以上的份额。澳洲的确地广人稀，但是只要你在澳洲居住过，就会知道，长期来看，澳洲的房价上涨是一定的。因为90%的移民都会选择在最大的5个城市生活，而70%的移民，则会集中在悉尼和墨尔本。

根据上周最新的联邦预算，澳大利亚预计将在五年内接收149.5万新移民。其中包括 2022-23年创纪录的40万和2023-24年的31.5万。到明年年底，预计将有超过70万人移居澳大利亚。内政部长克莱尔奥尼尔上个月宣布：澳大利亚人口仍有望在五年内从2650万增加到2817万。话都说到这里了，虽然我本人从事的不是房地产，而是金融行业，但是我知道，移民政策一个最大的优势，就是可以凭空制造GDP。为啥这么说呢？因为正常出生人口每个国家都是比较缓慢的，而且就算刚出生，除了增加一点奶粉尿布的开支以外，短时间这小婴儿自己是不可能增加消费和去工作的。但是新增加的移民则不同，除了那些少数的难民和老人家属移民以外，绝大部分的新移民都是青年或壮年群体，都属于工作年龄，不但可以工作，赚了工资还能促进消费，更不用说买房买车这种刚需消费了。澳洲政府将2023-2024年永久移民计划中，把约70%的名额分配给技术移民，大家注意，这次大部分给了技术移民，而不是商业移民或家属移民，说明的是什么？说明澳洲政府知道，现在澳洲就业市场里缺人啊。所以要的不是商业移民你只带钱不工作。而是要那些年轻人，符合移民专业的，或者在海外有专业技术背景的，能到了澳洲就可以找工作上班的那种。只要你要上班，就有机会可以贷款买房，一旦贷款买房了，那澳洲就可以大概率绑定你30年了，这笔买卖是稳赚不赔啊。你说，这世界上除了澳洲加拿大，还有哪个发达国家有这么多配额，又没有设置太高的门槛？回到问题上。澳洲加息，影响大不大？大，但是影响的都是已经在澳洲工作的，或者贷款买房的人群。但是对于新移民，尤其是带着钱来，暂时不可能找工作的那些，几乎没有。如果我们打比喻，加息10次，会对房地产市场的需求量产生-10分的影响的话，那过去6个月登录澳洲的那10多万人所带来的强大刚需消费，就会对房地产的需求端产生+30分的影响。

我在过去半年反复多次和大家强调一点：澳洲除了地下有矿这个巨大的优势以外，还有一个祖传秘方可以躲避经济衰退的办法就是自由调节每年的移民数量。虽然短期内大量增加移民无疑会导致很多不良影响，比如治安，比如堵车，比如看医就学和买房租房等等，但是当大环境充满了不确定的时候，那大量新增的劳动力和消费力无疑能够带来更多的是好处和优势。不论你是在澳洲上班，还是自己做小店铺餐饮，或者自己做建筑，贸易，或者进出口生意。你都会面临两个选择：移民多，经济不衰退或少衰退，店铺人流量增加，吃喝玩乐的人增加，但是房价上涨，物价居高不下。另一种选择：移民少，或不来。经济完全看美国，一旦美国不行了，澳洲也会大概率衰退，然后没人去店里吃饭，没人买衣服买电器，利息是下来了，但是房价下跌，租金下跌。说不定你的店要亏钱，说不定公司要裁员。你会选哪一种？不要说你没有房贷，已经财富自由这种风凉话。咱们大部分都是普通人，已经在澳洲居住生活，一定是希望澳洲经济好，澳洲经济好，咱们就跟着好。但是澳洲经济好，房价也必然跟着涨。想想当初2020年，疫情刚开始，澳洲主流媒体和银行纷纷预测房价要跌30%-40%。结果呢？半年就开始反弹。这次2022年加息之后，去年年底的时候，各大主流媒体也纷纷预测，房价2023年还要跌10-15%，结果4月悉尼墨尔本就开始反弹。为啥？最大的一个因素被忽略，就是澳洲为了拯救经济而会突然大量增加移民配额这个巨大的利好因素。2023年，充满着不确定，但是唯一可以确定的是，澳洲的移民不会减少，还会增加。那未来2年，除了银行业以外，70万新增移民可以给哪些行业带来利好呢？欢迎拨打03 8658 0603，联系我们，来我们办公室，请我们喝一杯拿铁，说不定，就有你想不到的收获。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Mike Huang | GO Markets 销售总监

热门话题周末有份桥水基金的持仓报告出炉，值得大家关注。桥水基金从去年年底以来出现较大涨势，表现非常突出。根据桥水向美国证交会提交的文件显示，其今年一季度末的美股持仓市值达到163亿美元，较去年底的183亿美元减少了约10%。作为全球宏观策略基金，桥水的美股组合仅占总资产很小的一部分。在这个季度，桥水清仓了二百多只股票，减持了三百多只股票，同时新进了一百多只股票，增持了二百多只股票。MSCI新兴市场ETF在今年一季度末晋升为桥水的第一大重仓，加仓了三百多万股，持仓超1786万股，占投资组合比例的5%以上。一季度减持多只消费股，比如宝洁，百事可乐、可口可乐；另外，桥水还减持了麦当劳和沃尔玛，其中沃尔玛的减持幅度相对较大。但是，桥水在一季度小幅加仓了医疗领域的强生，位列第四大重仓股。其目前美股重仓股中，增持的标的还包括Alphabet，Meta，以及VISA和Booking等。在桥水一季度减持的众多标的中，先锋领航富时新兴市场ETF减持幅度达38%，另外减持幅度较大的还有拼多多，减持幅度41%，以及亿滋国际减持22%，塔吉特减持28%。较为意外的是桥水在一季度还减持了其特别看好的黄金资产，卖出其黄金ETF超34万股，期末持仓降至88万股左右，持有市值仅为1.62亿美元。

近期，桥水基金投资官表示，黄金可能正处于持续增长期的开端，因为全球对美元去杠杆化的推动仍是金价的长期支撑。她表示，黄金被低估了，还有很长的路可以走。黄金在全球货币市场中日益重要，这使得它不仅仅是对抗债券市场和利率的工具。另外，地缘政治动荡不会消失，这是对黄金的长期支撑。不仅如此，由于全球通胀水平仍相对较高，黄金将继续吸引投资者，以对冲购买力下降的风险。4月末，桥水联合首席投资官鲍勃·普林斯分享了他在2023年一季度的最新观察。他指出，名义支出水平高于经济体的生产能力，导致通胀率远高于目标水平，美国和其他西方经济体处于看跌失衡中。为了纠正这种失衡，缓解需求压力，欧美各国央行一直在实施紧缩政策，恢复均衡将会给经济和市场带来一定的负面影响。相比之下，亚洲经济体的经济更加接近于均衡，支出与劳动力产出水平一致，通胀可控，政策制定者有足够的空间提振经济和市场。在大部分西方国家，货币政策紧缩扭转了流动性方向，促使人们抛售资产持有现金。而中国，日本和许多亚洲国家处于周期的不同位置，这些国家和地区的政策制定者支持货币和信用流动，这降低了折现率和风险溢价，促进了经济增长。桥水基金的美股头寸并不算大，但其持仓变动折射出一种资金撤离为主线的信号，也是对目前市场不确定性的一种解读。随着金价震荡上行，美债上限问题依然没有解决，西方国家的股市依然整体处于熊市，货币紧缩政策无法在短期内改变，反而是亚洲股市有着较大的机会，目前货币政策保持宽松，疫情后的经济复苏强势，因此桥水的主要方向也是向着亚洲市场在靠拢。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Xavier Zhang | GO Markets 专业分析师

Australian’s weak inflation report this week has set the tone for the RBA’s Rate Statement next Tuesday. The underlying inflation reading remains well below the RBA’s target 2-3% for the 11th consecutive quarter. There is no doubt that the Australian inflationary outlook remains feeble.

Some cyclical and structural headwinds are preventing wages and other inflationary pressures to climb higher. Even though the economy is on its 27 th year without a recession, the Australian economy is trapped with very high household debt. A subdued wage growth and high household debt are putting a squeeze on consumer spending.

It is hard to see consumer spending continue to stay strong in the upcoming quarters. There are some bright spots such as net exports, public spending and capital expenditure that are relatively solid to stimulate the economy but there are no signs of significant inflationary pressures from leading indicators across categories in the near-term for the RBA to increase interest rate. “Patience is the key here.” Unemployment rate is coming down gradually and will eventually push wages higher at some point. Therefore, even though the CPI figures were disappointing, it is too early to speculate about a rate cut or any changes for that matter.

The RBA was expecting both headline and underlying inflation to undershoot under their target range. We therefore expect the RBA to maintain its usual stance on inflationary outlook and keep interest rate on hold.

Deteriorating demand and rising global output are the main factors that sent the WTI Crude into a bear market territory. There is a shift of sentiment in the oil markets. The US sanctions have been the primary influence behind the rally in oil prices, and now that fears have eased, fundamentals took over, and economic forces- demand and supply are driving the markets.

Supply Side The US sanctions have created fears that oil supply will take a hit and will likely drop by 30% by next year. There was also resistance from OPEC members to increase the output ceiling and boost production. These downside factors have put upward pressure on oil prices.

In the last couple of weeks, sentiment soured as US crude oil reaches a new all-time high at 11.63 million bpd and is predicted to break through 12 million barrels per day by mid-2019. The US sanctions on Iran will be therefore unlikely to have a significant impact on supply. The US decision to offer Oil Waivers to different nations also came as a surprise mitigating the effect of the Iran sanctions on the global oil supply and accelerating the slide in oil prices.

It appears that the waivers were put in place to avoid a shock in the market and higher prices. Demand Side The concerns over global economic growth are forcing traders to reduce their projections for oil demand. Trade tensions are flashing warnings that could dent the world’s oil demand growth.

A slowdown in global economic growth, consumer spending, investment flows and a rising US dollar are leading to mounting uncertainties around the demand for oil. The demand shock is boiling over slowly, and the effect will likely be felt over time. It is too soon to know how the OPEC will react to the supply glut.

Meanwhile, we will have to wait for the OPEC and its allies to discuss scenarios of cutting production again next year. This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.

Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. More information on trading WTI and Brent crude oil here.

The Political Event of the Year 2020 The most-waited political event of the year is fast approaching: the US elections will take place on the 3 rd of November. The nominees of the two main political parties - Republican and Democratic party are yet to be announced at the Presidential Nominating Convention. However, the clear frontrunners are President Trump and Joe Biden.

Without any doubt, this election will be widely monitored as US politics may affect the global economy, alliances and trade agreements. Markets were rattled by the long-drawn trade war between the world’s two powerful economies. Even though we kick-started 2020 with positive trade negotiations, the tussle between the US and China over the transparency of the coronavirus outbreak worsen the already fragile relationship.

Ahead of the Presidential election, investors are bracing for the tensions between the US and China to get worse as it is a politically-motivated move by President Trump to win another term. Rightly so, the recent new tech war between the two countries are keeping the markets on edge. The COVID-19 Effect In modern times, history has shown that an incumbent President has a clear advantage and usually wins re-election.

The last president to lose re-election was George W Bush which was mostly due to an economic recession. Therefore, in recent history, an incumbent President has never failed to win a second term unless a recession has occurred during their time as president. At the beginning of the year, the odds of President Trump winning the election was high.

US-China Tensions & COVID-19 The Trump administration had a tough stance against China which had bode well with a majority of Americans. As per Pew Research Center: 73% of US Adults say they have an unfavourable view of China. Around two-thirds of Americans (64%) say China has done a bad job dealing with the coronavirus outbreak.

Around three-quarters (78%) place a great deal or fair amount of the blame for the global spread of the coronavirus on the Chinese government’s initial handling of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan. However, as the virus continues to spread across the globe, the US recorded around 5.3 million of coronavirus cases with more than 165,000 deaths. The US was hit the hardest by the pandemic and the handling of the outbreak by the Trump administration was questioned.

The President has failed to timely respond to the crisis, is also being blamed for sidelining the advice of the experts and played down the severity of the coronavirus crisis. Strong US economy Heading into the election year, the US President was confident that its hard stance on China and a thriving US economy with a historically strong labour market and greater economic security will be the focal points of his election campaign. However, the US economy contracted due to the various forms of lockdown amid the pandemic.

The preliminary Q2 GDP figures show that the US is poised to shrink by a 32.9% – the deepest decline in decades. The pandemic continues to wreak havoc across the globe and the outlook for the third quarter remains murky. COVID-19 Changed the Odds As per the latest polls, the odds have changed – the battleground states look good for Joe Biden.

The presumptive Democratic nominee even has big leads over states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where the Republicans won by margins of less than 1% in the last election: The most recent data suggest that even Republicans supporters are questioning its response to the coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19 is unlikely to fade away by the election date and combined with the uncertainty about the state of the US economy – the current polls show that Joe Biden is running well ahead of President Trump. Republicans and Democrats: Policies and Markets Under any presidential campaign, tax policies are the primary factor for the markets because of its direct impact on corporate valuation.

The Republicans are supposedly considered as more “market-friendly” compared to Democrats. Cutting Taxes vs Raising Taxes In simpler words, the Republicans encourage tax cuts and believe in an income tax system that does not unfairly target those who create jobs and wealth while Democrats support a more progressive tax structure to provide more services and reduce economic inequality by making sure that the wealthiest Americans pay the highest amount in taxes. After the 2016 election, markets rallied on the assumption of promises of tax cuts and faster economic growth.

However, the trade war has created an uncertain environment for investors and the economy did not progress in the way expected. For Joe Biden to see through this agenda, he plans to make new, bold investments and speed up the timetable for many of the 10-year investments he has already announced. He will pay for the ongoing costs of the plan by reversing some of Trump’s tax cuts for corporations and imposing common-sense tax reforms that finally make sure the wealthiest Americans pay their fair share.

Stock Market Performance by President The below interactive chart shows the percentage gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average by Presidential term. Despite the pro-business policies, the Dow performed better under Barack Obama over the same time frame as compared to President Trump. Generally, a Democratic win means higher taxes which will negatively affect corporate valuation and the stock market.

However, we have seen that there are higher market returns under Democrats as both the combination of higher taxes and government spending stimulate the economy and support the markets. Source: MacroTrends The Need for More Fiscal Stimulus In a pandemic-induced environment, markets are in a need of more fiscal support from the government. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell has also emphasised on the importance of fiscal stimulus to support the economy.

The Democrats seem to be in favour of more government spending than the Republicans. A Democratic Sweep – Bad for Markets? Leading up to the election date, volatility may be high but markets will eventually adjust to either the Republicans or Democrats policy changes.

Investment opportunities will arise irrespective of a Democratic or Republican win. Some investors may concentrate on certain industries or sectors that can be impacted as the opposing views of both parties on renewable energy, climate, trade policies and health care could affect stocks related to those industries. But most importantly, this election will be geared towards finding a government that will fight the pandemic more effectively and also eased trade tensions with key allies.

A democratic sweep may not be as disastrous as investors fret as historically stocks did also well under the Democrats and in some cases even better than under the Republicans.

Which safe-haven to choose in 2020 – Gold or the Mighty Dollar? In times of uncertainties – be it economical, political or policy-related, investors generally seek safety with haven assets like the US dollar, Japanese Yen, Swiss franc or Gold. Our attention today is on Gold and the US dollar, both of which have had an interesting start to the year so far.

Gold Major equity indices reached fresh record highs in January. Yet, gold price remains in elevated levels around $1,550. It is a situation of “cautious” risk appetite.

The narrative is simple. Investors are still navigating in an environment with high levels of uncertainties, despite easing trade tensions and receding recession fears: QE and record low-interest rates Geopolitical tensions Global growth uncertainties Growing global debt China’s commitment to Phase One Major central banks are pumping money into the economy through quantitative easing and are reducing interest rates to stimulate the economy, hence driving demand for riskier assets. Hard assets like gold are therefore generally sought as investors are hedging against poor fundamentals and the long-term headwinds.

Currently, the fears that the Coronavirus may spread to more countries and dent economic growth are also boosting the short-term outlook for gold. US Dollar Index We are seeing a stronger US dollar but the greenback acting as a safe-haven will likely face some limitations. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times last year, mainly due to weaker global growth and trade tensions.

Lower rates and still a stronger US dollar? The US dollar is gaining a competitive advantage over its peers in the currencies market. The US economy is stronger and the Fed is considered to be less-dovish than other central banks.

While some might still need to reduce interest rate further in 2020, the Fed is expected to remain on pause with the expectations of being among the first central banks to be able to start hiking again in 2021. The Tandem Given that gold is internationally quoted against the US dollar, any appreciation or depreciation of the greenback will generally cause an inverse reaction in the price of gold. A strong dollar will therefore negatively affect the price of gold.

Since the beginning of the year, instead of a negative correlation, both the US dollar Index which represents the performance of the greenback against a basket of currencies and the XAUUSD pair are moving in tandem. An alignment which is unusual but occasionally occurs during periods of heightened geopolitical and economic risks. Source: Bloomberg Quantitative Easing and Central Bank Gold Hoarding Quantitative easing is a controversial and unconventional monetary measure used by central banks to pump money into their economies.

Recession fears and lack of inflation growth despite a decade of low- interest rate have forced central banks to reconsider QE in 2019. The ECB has resumed the QE process while the Fed is providing liquidity in the repo markets. While the Fed denies that the interventions are not technically a new phase of QE, such liquidity interventions in the markets instilled fears of a struggling global economy.

As a result, QE is triggering a rally in gold. The Favourite Mighty Dollar At the same time, the US dollar is being favoured in the currencies market as it retains a positive interest rate differential with many countries. Overall, investors are looking for the next best alternative.

The US economy is not shielded from the global headwinds, but are perceived as performing better in comparison to other major countries. Is Gold a Better Safe-Haven? As major economies engage in easing monetary policies, central banks are also piling up on gold.

Emerging markets like China and Russia have also increased their gold reserves over concerns on currencies like the US dollar and Euro. Why? To diversify away from the US dollar?

A stock rally and a stronger dollar do not seem to have tamed the rise of gold. The stock rally is being driven by the QE process, easing trade tensions and receding recession fears, while the US dollar is being favoured over its peers. However, we note that a partial trade deal and a global economy poised for a mini-recovery could limit the potential upside of the US dollar.

The “by-default” strengthening of the US dollar could limit the effectiveness of the actions enacted by the Fed to shelter its economy from global headwinds. Also, the global growth narrative is dependent on China’s commitment to Phase One. Both are moving together, but the magnitude is different.

The current sentiment is positive yet fragile due to the uncertainties, which is creating a favourable environment for the precious metal. About GO Markets GO Markets was established in Australia in 2006 as a provider of online CFD trading services. For over a decade we have positioned ourselves as a firmly trusted and leading global regulated CFD provider.

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