市场资讯及洞察

石油市场习惯于在停止结算之前就看上去已经定下来了。这就是现在的设置。
随着伊朗周边冲突的加剧,霍尔木兹海峡的交通量急剧下降,越来越多的船只因关闭AIS或自动识别系统而陷入黑暗,这些信号通常显示船只在哪里移动。霍尔木兹不只是另一条航道。它是世界上最重要的能源阻塞点之一,因此,当能见度开始消失时,供应风险就会回到对话的中心。
为什么现在这很重要
这很重要,有两个原因。
头条新闻是一回事。市场影响是另一回事。石油不仅关乎有多少桶,还关系到这些桶能否流动,谁愿意为它们投保,买家准备等待多长时间,以及交易者认为他们需要在多大风险的基础上定价。
目前,有三件事同时发生冲突:航运中断、外交脆弱以及市场已经严重倾向于一个方向。这种组合可以使布伦特原油的走势比基本面本身通常所暗示的要快。
是什么推动了这一举动
1 供应能见度恶化
第一个驱动程序很简单。市场看得更少,这往往会让市场更加紧张。
通过霍尔木兹的过境量急剧下降,而越来越多的交通量涉及不再广播标准跟踪信号的船只。简而言之,正常通过重要走廊的船只越来越少,越来越多的活动也变得越来越难以追踪。这并不自动意味着供应即将崩溃。但这确实意味着不确定性正在上升。
2 伊朗的储存缓冲区可能有限
第二个驱动因素是伊朗的出口和储存限制。
陆上储存容量估计约为4000万桶,市场正在关注有人所说的16天红线。到那时,长期的出口中断可能会开始迫使减产,以避免对储油库造成损害。对于新读者来说,要点很简单。如果石油不能储存足够长的时间,问题可能不再是出口延迟,而是开始成为真正的供应问题。
3 定位可以放大移动
第三个驱动因素是定位,这只是市场简写,说明在下一步行动发生之前交易者已经如何进行设置。
在这种情况下,投机性原油头寸显得严重片面。这很重要,因为当市场向一个方向倾斜得太远时,触发急剧调整并不需要太多时间。新的地缘政治冲击可能迫使交易者迅速采取行动,而一旦开始,价格的上涨幅度可能会超过单纯基础新闻所能证明的合理性。
为什么市场在乎
石油冲击很少能在能源市场内得到控制。
较高的原油价格可能会开始出现在运费、制造业和家庭能源账单中。这意味着通货膨胀预期可能会再次开始攀升。各国央行已经在努力管理粘性通货膨胀和疲软增长之间的艰难平衡,因此石油价格上涨会使这项工作变得更加艰难。
这不仅仅是一个关于石油生产商获得提振的故事。当能源成本上升时,航空公司、运输公司和其他对燃料敏感的企业可能会迅速承受压力。如果石油价格上涨使通货膨胀保持强于预期,则更广泛的股市可能还必须重新考虑政策前景。
连锁反应远不止石油
还有一个货币角度,它不如最初出现的那么简单。
当原材料价格上涨时,与大宗商品挂钩的货币,例如澳元,通常会获得支撑。但是这种关系不是自动的。如果石油价格因为全球需求改善而攀升,那可能会有所帮助。如果由于地缘政治风险激增而攀升,则市场可能会转向避险模式,即使大宗商品价格上涨,这也可能打压澳元。
这就是让这种举动比乍一看更有趣的原因。同样的石油涨势可以支撑市场的一个部分,同时给另一部分带来压力。
框架中的资产和名称
布伦特原油仍然是广泛供应风险中最明显的解读。如果交易者想要最简洁的头条新闻表达,通常是他们首先看的地方。
- 埃克森美孚是画面中最明显的名字之一。油价上涨可以支撑已实现的销售价格和短期的盈利势头,尽管这从来都不像石油上涨、囤积那么简单。成本、生产结构和更广泛的情绪仍然很重要。
- NexTera Energy 又增加了一层。这个故事不仅仅是关于化石燃料的。当能源安全成为一个更大的问题时,国内电力弹性、电网投资和替代发电的理由也将得到加强。
- 澳元/美元是另一个值得关注的市场。澳大利亚与大宗商品周期密切相关,因此原材料价格走强有时可以支撑该货币。但是,如果市场对恐惧的反应大于对增长的反应,那么通常的顺风可能不会成立。
对于新读者来说,关键是石油走势不会以整齐的、可预测的线条在市场中传播。它们不均匀地向外波动,帮助某些资产,给其他资产施加压力,有时两者兼而有之。
可能会出什么问题
强烈的叙述与单向交易不同。
停火可以比预期更快地稳定航运。欧佩克+可以通过提高产量来抵消部分紧张局势。来自中国的需求数据可能会令人失望,将焦点转移到消费疲软而不是供应受限上。而且,如果地缘政治溢价消退,石油回落的速度可能比当前情绪所暗示的要快。
对于新读者来说,要点很简单。石油涨势可以是真实的,但不是永久性的。短期内,中断风险可能证明此举是合理的,然后如果这些风险缓解或需求疲软,则迅速逆转。
市场不再孤立地对石油进行定价。这是定价可见性、运输安全性以及供应中断蔓延到通货膨胀、货币和更广泛的风险情绪中的风险。
这就是为什么Hormuz很重要,即使对于从未自己交易过一桶原油的读者来说也是如此。


Big tech earnings continue this week with three more of the Magnificent seven in Amazon, Meta and Apple due to report Q4 earnings after the US close on Thursday. So far, we’ve had mixed results from the first three Mag 7 tech stocks, none of them impressed stockholders much, with Tesla, Microsoft and Alphabet all down post earnings to varying degrees, will this new batch turn things around? AMAZON Amazon’s cost-cutting efforts look like they begin to pay off with analysts predicting a significant jump in earnings as compared to a year ago.
Earnings are forecast at 80 cents per share for Q4 2023 versus 3 cents a year ago. Revenue is also expected to jump to $166 billion which is about $17 billion more than for the same period a year ago. Another good sign for the bulls is that Amazon has a good track record with earnings beating estimates every quarter of the last fiscal year.
META Meta comes into today’s earnings after a stellar 2023 where the stock price increased by 194% on the back of the company cutting costs and seeing an increase in users and engagement. Investors and analysts are expecting big things in the latest earnings with consensus calling for earnings of $4.93 per share up from $1.76 a year ago, with revenues of just over $39 billion. Two big parts of the business that will be of extra importance to investors and the reaction in stock price will be Meta’s AI efforts and their growth in China, which has become a growing source of revenue for the company.
APPLE Apple along with Tesla has been one of the Magnificent 7 laggards with the stock price down around 4% YTD. A lukewarm response from investors to their flagship Vision Pro and waning demand for iPhones from China weighing on the stock price. Despite this AAPL is expected to report notably stronger earnings than a year ago, with a consensus of $2.10 per share for Q4 2023, an increase from $1.88 a year ago.
Revenue is projected at $118 billion, a $1 billion increase from Q4 2022. Investors will be focusing on the performance of Apple Services, plans for the Vision Pro and how sales are performing in China. If Apple can allay investors’ fears and provide guidance showing that the Chinese market is solid especially, some of the concerns that have seen the stock down so far this year could be eased.

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) posted Q4 2023 earnings results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. The largest pharmaceutical company in the world reported revenue of $9.353 billion (up by 28% year-over-year) vs. $8.946 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped estimates at $2.49 vs. $2.296 per share.
EPS grew by 19% vs. Q4 2022. Eli Lilly expects to achieve revenue of between $40.4 billion and $41.6 billion in 2024.
EPS expected to reach $12.20 to $12.70 per share. Company overview Founded: 1876 Headquarters: Indianapolis, Indiana, United States Number of employees: 39,000 (2022) Industry: Pharmaceutical Key people: David A. Ricks (Chair, President, & CEO), Anat Ashkenazi (CFO) CEO commentary "2023 was a year of tremendous achievement for Lilly, which delivered life-changing medicines to more patients than ever before resulting in strong revenue growth," David A.
Ricks, company CEO, said in a press release. "We advanced our pipeline of new medicines for serious diseases and created new partnerships and innovative ways of collaborating to add to that pipeline. Lilly invested in the quality, reliability and resilience of our supply chain with new advanced manufacturing plants and lines in the U.S. and in Europe. Entering 2024, we remain focused on the opportunity in front of us, to help solve some of the most challenging healthcare problems in the world and make life better for millions of patients," Ricks added.
Stock reaction The stock initialy rose by around 5% from $705 to $742 at the market open on Tuesday, reaching a new all-time high. Shares were flat at the end of trading, falling back down to $705.03 level. Stock performance 5 day: +9.31% 1 month: +12.72% 3 months: +17.52% Year-to-date: +20.95% 1 year: +107.56% Eli Lilly stock price targets Cantor Fitzgerald: $630 Wells Fargo & Company: $700 Barclays: $680 Morgan Stanley: $822 Truist Financial: $650 Deutsche Bank: $535 Citigroup: $675 UBS Group: $710 Bank of America: $700 Argus: $620 Credit Suisse Group: $580 BMO Capital Markets: $633 The Goldman Sachs Group: $470 Royal Bank of Canada: $580 Eli Lilly and Company is the 9th largest company in the world with a market cap of $669.28 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
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US manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), reported the latest financial results on Monday. CAT achieved revenue of $17.07 billion for the three months ending 31/12/23 (an increase of 3% year-over-year), which beat analyst estimate of $17.057 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $5.23 (an increase of 35.84% year-over-year) vs. $4.765 per share expected.
The revenue for last year reached $61.1 billion, up by $59.4 billion the year prior. EPS also rose by 53.25% year-over-year to $21.21 per share. Company overview Founded: 1925 Headquarters: Irving, Texas, United States Number of employees: 109,100 (2022) Industry: Heavy equipment, Engines, Financial services Key people: Jim Umpleby (chairman & CEO) CEO commentary Jim Umpleby, CEO of Caterpillar commented on the latest results in a press release to investors: "I'm very proud of our global team's strong performance as they achieved the best year in our 98-year history, including record full-year sales and revenues, record adjusted profit per share and record ME&T free cash flow." "We remain committed to serving our customers, executing our strategy and investing for long-term profitable growth," Umpleby added.
Stock reaction Shares of Caterpillar rose by around 5% at the open, reaching a new all-time high. The stock ended the day up by 2% at $321.40 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +5.99% 1 month: +9.97% 3 months: +34.88% Year-to-date: +8.70% 1 year: +27.83% Caterpillar stock price targets Morgan Stanley: $270 Standford C.
Bernstein: $245 Stifel Nicolaus: $293 HSBC: $250 Tigress Financial: $295 The Goldman Sachs Group: $274 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $320 Bank of America: $297 Barclays: $250 Credit Suisse Group: $334 Wells Fargo & Company: $285 TD Cowen: $320 Robert W. Baird: $234 Citigroup: $270 Caterpillar Inc. is the 73rd largest company in the world with a market cap of $163.61 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
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The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) reported Q4 2023 financial results before the market open in the US on Wednesday. World’s largest aircraft manufacturer’s revenue reached $22.018 billion for the last three months of 2023, above analyst estimate of $21.184 billion. Revenue rose by 10% year-over-year.
Boeing reported a loss per share of -$0.47, which was less than -$0.777 loss per share expected. Company overview Founded: 1916 Headquarters: Arlington County, Virginia, United States Number of employees: 156,000 (2022) Industry: Aerospace Key people: Dave Calhoun (President and CEO), Larry Kellner (Chairman) CEO commentary "While we report our financial results today, our full focus is on taking comprehensive actions to strengthen quality at Boeing, including listening to input from our 737 employees that do this work every day," Dave Calhoun, CEO of Boeing said in a statement. "As we move forward, we will support our customers, work transparently with our regulator and ensure we complete all actions to earn the confidence of our stakeholders," Calhoun looked ahead as company battles recent 737 aircraft safety issues and tries to rebuild its reputation. Stock reaction The stock took off on Wednesday after dropping to its lowest level since 17/11/2023 the day before.
Shares were up 5.29%, trading at $211.04 a share. Stock performance 5 day: -1.44% 1 month: -13.48% 3 months: +11.44% Year-to-date: -19.04% 1 year: -1.73% Boeing price targets Bank of America: $225 Susquehanna: $279 Wells Fargo & Company: $225 UBS Group: $315 Barclays: $235 Stifel Nicolaus: $265 Royal Bank of Canada: $275 Deutsche Bank: $270 Morgan Stanley: $220 Citigroup: $271 TD Cowen: $260 Jefferies Financial Group: $275 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $245 The Boeing Company is the 104th largest company in the world with a market cap of $127.67 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
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It’s set to be another busy week of US earnings with The Coca-Cola Company, Shopify Inc., Airbnb Inc., Deere & Company and more expected to announce the latest earnings results. First up, US computer networking company Arista Networks Inc. (NYSE: ANET) released the latest results after the closing bell on Monday. The company achieved revenue of $1.54 billion for Q4 2023, narrowly beating Wall Street estimate of $1.534 billion.
Revenue was up by 20.8% year-over-year. Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $2.08, which was above analyst estimate of $1.704 per share. EPS was up by 47.51% from Q4 2022.
Full year revenue was up by 33.8% from 2022 at $5.860 billion. EPS reached $6.94 per share. Company overview Founded: 2004 Headquarters: Santa Clara, California, United States Number of employees: 3,612 (2022) Industry: Networking hardware Key people: Jayshree Ullal (CEO and Chairperson), Andy Bechtolsheim (Founder and Chief Architect), Chantelle Breithaupt (CFO) CFO commentary "I am truly honoured to be a part of the leadership team that will drive Arista 2.0 products and technology for enterprise, cloud and AI customers.
As we enter 2024, we remain focused on satisfying their most demanding requirements with our compelling, innovative networking solutions," CFO of Arista Networks, Chantelle Breithaupt said in a press release. Stock reaction There was no major movement in share price on Monday before the latest results were announced. The stock was trading at $280.88 a share, down by 0.56%.
Shares fell by around 6% in the after-hours trading. Stock performance 5 day: +2.90% 1 month: +11.45% 3 months: +33.57% Year-to-date: +19.26% 1 year: +106.53% Arista Networks stock price targets Wells Fargo & Company: $310 JMP Securities: $325 KeyCorp: $287 Melius Research: $300 Morgan Stanley: $272 Citigroup: $300 The Goldman Sachs Group: $248 Needham & Company LLC: $235 Piper Sandler: $209 Rosenblatt Securities: $230 Bank of America: $225 Argus: $225 Barclays: $200 BNP Paribas: $210 Credit Suisse Group: $151 Arista Networks Inc. is the 178 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $87.38 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Arista Networks Inc. (NYSE: ANET) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
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American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) announced fourth quarter of 2023 and full year financial results before the market opened in the US on Friday, ending a busy week of earnings. The US banking and payment card services company achieved revenue of $15.799 billion vs. $16.003 billion. Revenue grew by 11% vs. the year prior.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $2.62 vs. $2.639 pe share estimate. EPS was up by 27% year-over-year. American Express set a new full year revenue record at $60.5 billion – up by 14% vs. 2022.
Full year EPS reached $11.21 per share – an 14% year-over-year. The company also announced plans to increase its quarterly dividend to $0.70 per common share, up from $0.60 per share. Company overview Founded: 1850 Headquarters: 200 Vesey Street Manhattan, New York City, NY 10285, United States Number of employees: 77,300 (2022) Industry: Banking, Payment card services Key people: Stephen J.
Squeri (Chairman & CEO), Jeffrey C. Campbell (Executive VP & CFO) CEO commentary ''We delivered record revenues and profits in 2023, building on the momentum we've achieved since we announced our growth plan in January 2022. We continued to drive strong customer engagement, and demand for our premium products remained robust.
We added 12.2 million new proprietary cards in the year, bringing the total number of cards-in-force issued on our global network to over 140 million,'' Stephen J. Squeri, CEO of American Express commented on the latest results. Squeri also looked at the year ahead, setting expectations for investors: ''Based on the momentum in our business, we are providing full-year 2024 guidance for revenue growth of 9 percent to 11 percent and EPS of $12.65 to $13.15.
Looking ahead, we continue to run the business with a focus on our aspiration of revenue growth of 10 percent plus and mid-teens EPS growth.'' Stock reaction The share price rose by over 7% on Friday, trading at $201.43 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +8.90% 1 month: +6.47% 3 months: +41.16% Year-to-date: +6.47% 1 year: +15.76% American Express stock price targets BMO Capital Markets: $157 Deutsche Bank: $235 Robert W. Baird: $190 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: 205 Stephens: $193 The Goldman Sachs Group: $205 Barclays: $184 TD Cowen: $158 Citigroup: $154 Piper Sandler Companies: $151 Morgan Stanley: $175 Royal Bank of Canada: $185 HSBC: $181 Oppenheimer: $175 Bank of America: $202 American Express Company is the 86th largest company in the world with a market cap of $145.67 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: American Express Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
