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The recent USD decline stalled in yesterday’s session with FX traders seemingly taking the view that there is not enough thrust from US data to justify a significantly weaker USD just yet. Aside from the inflation aspect – and markets may have reacted a bit too optimistically to the CPI and PPI – jobless claims also eased back yesterday to 222k after a jump to 232k one week ago, mirroring the January reading where they reached 225k but then dropped back to the 200-210k area. GBP under pressure EURGBP has come off its 0.8610 peak in the past couple of sessions with a strong equity market benefitting the more cyclical and risk sensitive Pound Sterling.

At the same time, volatility in the pair seems to be abating ahead of the key CPI figures in the UK next week. Risks are skewed to the dovish side for the Bank of England, and a move higher in EURGBP is a good chance as traders increase their bets on a June rate cut. Today, the key event for GBP traders is a speech by the BoE’s Catherine Mann, who is considered the MPC’s most hawkish member.

Yesterday, Megan Greene echoed the recent cautious optimism on inflation expressed by Governor Andrew Bailey at the latest meeting.

Mays FOMC minutes released on Wednesday surprised on the hawkish side, bolstering USD and seeing the Dollar Index (DXY) retake the psychological 105 level. While the general view of FOMC members was that policy was “well positioned”, there were a few more than expected who were open to more hikes if needed, questioning whether policy was restrictive enough. Hot March inflation and jobs figures seemingly lingering in the minds of some of the kore hawkish members of the FOMC despite some encouraging April data.

Hawks Neel Kashkari and Chris Waller being the main voices regarding caution from the Fed in cutting too early, though it does seem that the general FOMC sentiment has turned generally less hawkish since the May meeting so any pop in the USD may be short lived. In today’s economic releases for FX traders PMIs are released in the US and eurozone. Given indications from recent data, there is the possibility for eurozone figures to paint a relatively more encouraging picture on inflation than in the US, also Nvidia’s solid results will likely have some positive impact on risk sentiment today.

Where’s the Federal Reserve at? Slowing Growth and Potential Rate Cuts: Recent economic data suggests a slowdown in growth, contrary to earlier expectations of reaccelerating growth and inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements and recent economic indicators point towards the possibility of lower policy rates in the near future.

Key indicators, such as the softening in job markets and overall economic activity, indicate that growth is decelerating rather than accelerating. Core inflation remains above the Fed's target but is showing signs of a gradual decline, with core CPI at 0.29% month-over-month (MoM) in April. This trend could build the Fed's confidence that inflation is on a downward trajectory, potentially leading to rate cuts starting in July.

These data trends have filtered into in the market itself. The divergence between the S&P and US 2-year has been come very apparent as yields unwind from their hawkish bets that ramped up on Q1 data. That spread is becoming an interesting trade – it could close as fast as it has opened if data misses.

On the data – what is core to the Fed’s view? Inflation Trends: Core inflation remains elevated but shows signs of slowing. The April core CPI increase of 0.29% MoM aligns with the Fed's expectations of gradual inflation decline.

The slow but steady decrease in shelter prices, particularly the owner’s equivalent rent (OER), is a positive sign. However, the "supercore" non-shelter services sector's inflation is unlikely to slow significantly without a loosening of the labour market and that remains a headwind. That brings us to the next question what is the official views of the Fed?

Federal Reserve Outlook: The recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and statements from Fed officials suggest it still holds a cautious approach. While there is no major shift towards a hawkish stance, the rhetoric indicates a readiness to cut rates if inflation data supports a premise it’s on a path to a more sustainable level. Yet the view from members is rather mixed, illustrated by the mixed views from members over the past week.

Key Statements Vice Chair Philip Jefferson: Jefferson noted that while April's data is encouraging, it is too early to determine if the slowdown in inflation is sustainable. He emphasized the current restrictive monetary policy and refrained from predicting when rate cuts might begin, stressing the importance of assessing incoming economic data and the balance of risks. Vice Chair of Supervision Michael Barr: Barr expressed disappointment with Q1 inflation readings, which did not increase his confidence in easing monetary policy.

He reinforced the message that rate cuts are on hold until there's clear evidence that inflation will return to the 2% target. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester: Mester anticipates a gradual decline in inflation this year but acknowledges that it will be slower than expected. She no longer expects three rate cuts this year and mentioned that the Fed is prepared to hold rates steady or raise them if inflation does not improve as anticipated.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly: Daly sees no need for rate hikes but also lacks confidence that inflation is decreasing towards 2%. She sees no urgency to cut rates, echoing the broader sentiment of caution among Fed officials. The conclusion from all this is that the Fed is still giving itself time.

It’s of the view that the restrictive policy will need more time to work, suggesting a prolonged period of higher interest rates to combat inflation effectively and despite the movements in the bond market and USD. Traders in the fed fund futures are still trading a full 50 basis points higher as of now compared to their bets at the March meeting. (Black v Blue line) Other data that matters: GDP and Consumer Spending: Despite strong GDP growth in the latter half of 2023, real GDP growth slowed significantly to 1.6% annualized in Q1 2024. Final private domestic demand was sustained primarily by consumer services spending, even as real goods spending declined.

The weakening consumer spending on goods is beginning to spill over into the services sector, indicating broader consumer weakness. Manufacturing and Investment: Data on manufacturing and business investment remains weak. Manufacturing production has stagnated, and orders for durable goods have not shown significant improvement.

Residential fixed investment is also slowing, with housing starts and building permits both declining in April. Housing Market: Existing home sales data, to be released soon, is expected to show a modest rebound from the previous month. However, ongoing weakness in the housing market, influenced by higher mortgage rates, remains a concern.

Hot Copper – Too hot? Copper has experienced significant price movements, with several key factors contributing to the recent trends in copper prices, spreads, and inventory levels. The following points provide an in-depth analysis of the forces at play: Tighter Physical Copper Market: Last week's record highs in COMEX and SHFE copper prices, alongside the COMEX-LME copper spreads indicate a very tight physical copper market.

This saw the LME copper price smash a new record all-time high (above US$11,000 a tonne). The dislocation in copper price benchmarks, such as the COMEX-LME spread, typically leads to adjustments in physical flows. However, current conditions are proving challenging, with generally low copper inventories and logistical issues.

For example, traders in China are facing tight shipping schedules, making it difficult to move copper to the US. Suggesting the price will hold in the interim De-commoditisation of Commodities: Deliverable Metal Scarcity: The elevated COMEX copper prices relative to other benchmarks can be partly attributed to the lack of deliverable metal. Only 17% of the metal in LME warehouses originates from countries with COMEX-approved brands.

This scarcity of deliverable inventory means that most of the available copper cannot be used to satisfy COMEX contracts, driving up the COMEX copper premium. RIO, BHP and the like all benefit from this. Influence of Financial Flows: Naturally this kind of move brings highten investor and trader interest.

COMEX copper futures are experiencing all-time highs in long positioning and record open interest in copper options. This surge in financial flows has pushed COMEX copper prices higher compared to other benchmarks and has been more resistant to reversal. What next?

The tight inventory situation is likely to persist, especially if logistical challenges and shipping delays continue. This will maintain upward pressure on prices and could lead to further dislocations between different copper price benchmarks. Efforts to alleviate bottlenecks will be crucial in normalizing price spreads and stabilizing the market.

Any improvement in shipping schedules or inventory replenishment could ease some of the current tensions, but we do not hold our breathe for this to occur any time soon. Conclusion The recent record highs in copper prices and spreads underscore a complex interplay of tight physical markets, and significant financial flows. Traders should closely monitor these dynamics and adapt their positions to capitalise on potential switches and further squeezes.

But in the main Dr. Copper is hot and likely to remain so until supply catches up.

What is going on with Taiwan? Taiwan is back in the news after US speaker of the house Nancy Pelosi visited the country causing a fiery reaction from the mainland of China. Historical background In order to understand the causes of the China/Taiwan tension, some historical perspective is needed.

The current tension stems from the Chinese civil war 1927 – 1949 where Mao Zedong’s Communist army and Chiang Kai- Shek’s Republic of China army fought in a series of intermittent battles to secure control of mainland China. As the Communist army began to gain ascendancy, Chiang Kai–Shek and the Republic of China movement was forced into exile to Taiwan. Since this exile and lasting until today, a long-standing military and political standoff has been in place between the two countries with each claiming to be the rightful controller of China.

In recent years, China has attempted to expand its influence and places such as Hong Kong have seen Beijing challenge its sovereignty the pressure has been building on Taiwan. At times of increased tension, China has conducted military exercises in the Taiwan Strait to act as a ‘warning’ to Taiwan and the West that it may be treading too close to China’s political interests. Current Day Events Nancy Pelosi became the first US speaker of the House to visit Taiwan in more than 25 years.

The visit by Pelosi, whilst not necessarily threatening is an act that supports the legitimacy of Taiwan as a democratic, sovereign government. Pelosi challenged the essence of China’s communist regime and stated, “Today the world faces a choice between democracy and autocracy.” However, the speaker did not go as far as to offer any specific military support to protect against an aggressive response from the CCP.. Any act of economic or military support has the potential to draw an aggressive response from the CCP.

Why does this matter? Traders and investors do not have to look too far to see what can happen to the market if geopolitical conflict breaks out. It is still only a few months on since the Russia and Ukraine conflict broke out.

After the initial invasions, commodity prices soared as sanctions were placed on Russia and supply chains were placed under pressure. The market is still trying to adjust to these consequences today. In addition, the Ruble took a huge hit and Moscow Exchange had to be closed as countries placed sanctions on Russia and its monetary system.

If China was to invade Taiwan it is reasonable to expect economic sanctions will follow. With China being such a huge player in the global supply chain, it may have a larger effect on commodity prices. The Ukraine conflict showed the world how fragile global supply chains can be when conflict strikes.

Specifically, Gas, Grain, Oil rocketed in price. Regarding Taiwan and China, a large portion of the world semi- conductors are produced in Taiwan which means that there could be disastrous consequences that may ensure should war breakout. A more detailed discussion on the impact that a shortage of semiconductors may have can be found below. https://www.gomarkets.com/au/articles/economic-updates/semi-conductor-supply-crunch/ Similarly, the Yuan may take a hit with any kind of escalation in conflict.

Therefore, traders should be aware of the conflict and ongoing tensions as trading opportunities may eventuate. The USDCNH can be traded on Go Markets platforms.

Walmart tops expectations for Q2 – the stock is up Walmart Inc. (WMT) announced its Q2 financial results before the market open on Wall Street on Tuesday. World’s largest supermarket chain reported results that exceeded analyst expectations, sending the stock price higher. The company reported revenue of $152.859 billion (up by 8.4% year-over-year) vs. $150.994 billion expected.

Earnings per share reported at $1.77 per share for the quarter vs. $1.62 per share estimate. Doug McMillon, President and CEO of Walmart commented on the latest results: ''We’re pleased to see more customers choosing Walmart during this inflationary period, and we’re working hard to support them as they prioritize their spending. The actions we’ve taken to improve inventory levels in the U.S., along with a heavier mix of sales in grocery put pressure on profit margin for Q2 and our outlook for the year.

We made good progress throughout the quarter operationally to improve costs in our supply chain, and that work is ongoing. We continue to build on our strategy to expand our digital businesses, including the continued strength we see in our international markets.'' Walmart Inc. (WMT) chart The stock was up by over 6% on Tuesday, trading at $140.233 a share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +8.62% 3 Month +7.14% Year-to-date -2.74% 1 Year -6.62% Walmart price targets Deutsche Bank $142 Raymond James $140 BMO Capital $160 Cowen & Co. $150 Morgan Stanley $145 UBS $152 Credit Suisse $133 Wells Fargo $130 Walmart is the 14 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $383.98 billion.

You can trade Walmart Inc. (WMT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Walmart Inc., TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

The USDJPY has been in an extremely strong upward trend since September 2021. This pair's recent price action has also been charactarised by relatively weak retracements as it has trended higher. Inflationary pressures have acted as a strong catalyst for the USD against most other currencies further aided by the Federal Reserve taking a strong stance against inflation with a series of aggressive interest rate hikes.

At the same time, the JPY has remained weak as the Central Bank of Japan has refused to intervene and shift from its dovish stance. The most recent retracement shows the potential for a good risk/reward Long trade. On the chart, it can be seen that the price has pulled back to the 23.60% Fibonacci level, which is at 132/133JPY.

This area also doubles as a support zone with the prior resistance level becoming a level of support which is another sign that the trend may continue. On the weekly chart, the characteristics of the candlesticks near the support zone also support the premise that the price may bounce. The candles have long wicks touching the support area indicating that the buyers are soaking up the supply.

They have also closed near their opening price again showing how buyers are soaking up the supply. The 4-hour chart shows a consolidation of the price forming a triangle, with the potential to break out to the upside. This may provide an alternative entry signal for the same overall strategy.

An important aspect to remember when trading this strategy is to ensure that price occurs with relatively high volume. Large volume indicates that buyers are regaining control over the price, and that sellers have become exhausted. Potential risks There are some risks with this trade.

Firstly, the pair is already quite overextended with the price at multi-decade highs. In addition, with US inflation fears potentially easing and interest rate hikes priced in already, the current price may be near its peak.