Notícias de mercado & insights
Mantenha-se à frente dos mercados com insights de especialistas, notícias e análise técnica para orientar suas decisões de negociação.
O mercado de petróleo tem o hábito de parecer estável logo antes de parar de ser liquidado. Essa é a configuração agora.
O tráfego pelo Estreito de Ormuz caiu drasticamente à medida que o conflito em torno do Irã se intensificou, e mais embarcações estão escurecendo ao desligar o AIS, ou Sistema de Identificação Automática, sinais que geralmente mostram para onde os navios estão se movendo. Ormuz não é apenas mais uma rota marítima. É um dos pontos de estrangulamento energéticos mais importantes do mundo; portanto, quando a visibilidade começa a desaparecer, o risco de fornecimento volta ao centro da conversa.
Por que isso importa agora
Isso é importante por alguns motivos.
A mudança da manchete é uma coisa. A implicação do mercado é outra. O petróleo não se trata apenas de quantos barris existem, mas também de saber se esses barris podem se mover, quem está disposto a segurá-los, quanto tempo os compradores estão preparados para esperar e quanto risco extra os comerciantes acham que precisam precificá-los.
No momento, três coisas estão colidindo ao mesmo tempo: navegação interrompida, diplomacia frágil e um mercado que já está fortemente inclinado em uma direção. Essa combinação pode fazer com que o Brent se mova mais rápido do que os fundamentos normalmente sugerem.
O que está impulsionando a mudança
1 A visibilidade do fornecimento está se deteriorando
O primeiro driver é simples. O mercado pode ver menos, e isso tende a deixá-lo mais nervoso.
O trânsito por Ormuz caiu drasticamente, enquanto uma parcela crescente do tráfego envolveu navios que não estão mais transmitindo sinais de rastreamento padrão. Em linguagem simples, menos embarcações estão se movendo normalmente por um corredor crítico e mais atividades estão se tornando mais difíceis de rastrear. Isso não significa automaticamente que o fornecimento está prestes a entrar em colapso. Mas isso significa que a incerteza está aumentando.
2 O buffer de armazenamento do Irã pode ser limitado
O segundo fator é a restrição de exportação e armazenamento do Irã.
A capacidade de armazenamento terrestre é estimada em cerca de 40 milhões de barris, e o mercado está observando o que alguns descrevem como uma linha vermelha de 16 dias. Esse é o ponto em que uma interrupção prolongada nas exportações pode começar a forçar cortes na produção para evitar danos aos reservatórios. Para leitores mais novos, a conclusão é simples. Se o petróleo não puder deixar o armazenamento por tempo suficiente, o problema pode deixar de ser o atraso nas exportações e começar a se tornar um problema genuíno de abastecimento.
3 O posicionamento pode amplificar o movimento
O terceiro fator é o posicionamento, que é apenas uma abreviação do mercado de como os negociadores já estão configurados antes que o próximo movimento aconteça.
Nesse caso, o posicionamento especulativo do petróleo bruto parece fortemente unilateral. Isso é importante porque, quando um mercado está muito inclinado em uma direção, não é preciso muito para desencadear um ajuste brusco. Um novo choque geopolítico pode forçar os comerciantes a agir rapidamente e, uma vez que isso comece, o preço pode subir mais do que as notícias subjacentes por si só poderiam justificar.
Por que o mercado se importa
Um choque de petróleo raramente permanece contido no mercado de energia.
Os preços mais altos do petróleo bruto podem começar a aparecer nas contas de frete, manufatura e energia doméstica. Isso significa que as expectativas de inflação podem começar a subir novamente. Os bancos centrais já estão tentando administrar um equilíbrio difícil entre inflação estável e crescimento mais fraco, então o aumento do petróleo pode dificultar esse trabalho.
E essa não é apenas uma história sobre produtores de petróleo recebendo carona. Companhias aéreas, empresas de transporte e outras empresas sensíveis ao combustível podem ser rapidamente pressionadas quando os custos de energia aumentam. Mercados acionários mais amplos também podem ter que repensar as perspectivas políticas se o petróleo mais alto mantiver a inflação mais firme do que o esperado.
Os efeitos em cascata vão muito além do petróleo.
Há também um ângulo monetário, e é menos simples do que parece à primeira vista.
Moedas vinculadas a commodities, como o dólar australiano, geralmente recebem apoio quando os preços das matérias-primas sobem. Mas essa relação não é automática. Se o petróleo está subindo porque a demanda global está melhorando, isso pode ajudar. Se estiver subindo porque o risco geopolítico está aumentando, os mercados podem passar para o modo de isenção de risco, e isso pode pesar sobre o dólar australiano, mesmo com o aumento dos preços das commodities.
É isso que torna esse tipo de movimento mais interessante do que parece à primeira vista. A mesma alta do petróleo pode apoiar uma parte do mercado e pressionar outra.
Ativos e nomes no quadro
O petróleo Brent continua sendo a leitura mais clara sobre o amplo risco de oferta. Se os traders desejam a expressão mais limpa da manchete, geralmente é aqui que eles olham primeiro.
- ExxonMobil é um dos nomes mais óbvios no quadro. Os preços mais altos do petróleo podem apoiar os preços de venda realizados e a dinâmica dos lucros de curto prazo, embora nunca seja tão simples quanto comprar petróleo, estocar. Custos, mix de produção e sentimentos mais amplos ainda são importantes.
- NextEra Energy adiciona outra camada. Essa história não é apenas sobre combustíveis fósseis. Quando a segurança energética se torna uma preocupação maior, o argumento a favor da resiliência energética doméstica, do investimento na rede e da geração alternativa também pode se fortalecer.
- AUD/USD é outro mercado que vale a pena observar. A Austrália está intimamente ligada aos ciclos de commodities, portanto, preços mais fortes das matérias-primas às vezes podem sustentar a moeda. Mas se os mercados estão reagindo mais ao medo do que ao crescimento, esse vento favorável usual pode não se manter.
Para leitores mais novos, o ponto principal é que os movimentos do petróleo não se espalham pelos mercados em uma linha clara e previsível. Eles se espalham de forma desigual, ajudando alguns ativos, pressionando outros e, às vezes, fazendo as duas coisas ao mesmo tempo.
O que poderia dar errado
Uma narrativa forte não é o mesmo que uma negociação unidirecional.
Um cessar-fogo poderia estabilizar os fluxos marítimos mais rápido do que o esperado. A OPEP+ poderia compensar parte da rigidez elevando a produção. Os dados de demanda da China podem decepcionar, voltando o foco para o consumo fraco, em vez da oferta restrita. E se o prêmio geopolítico diminuir, o petróleo poderá recuar mais rapidamente do que sugere o clima atual.
Para leitores mais novos, a conclusão é simples. Os ralis do petróleo podem ser reais sem serem permanentes. Uma mudança pode ser justificada no curto prazo pelo risco de interrupção e, em seguida, reverter rapidamente se esses riscos diminuírem ou se a demanda diminuir.
O mercado não está mais precificando o petróleo isoladamente. É a visibilidade dos preços, a segurança do transporte e o risco de que a interrupção do fornecimento se espalhe pela inflação, pelas moedas e por um sentimento de risco mais amplo.
É por isso que Ormuz é importante, mesmo para leitores que nunca negociam um barril de petróleo bruto.
Meta Platforms (META) announced its Q2 financial results after the closing bell in the US on Wednesday. The social media giant fell short of analyst expectations for the quarter. Revenue reported at $28.822 billion in Q2 (down by 1% year-over-year), vs. analyst estimate of $28.908 billion.
Earnings per share at $2.46 per share (down by 32% year-over-year) vs. $2.54 per share expected. "It was good to see positive trajectory on our engagement trends this quarter coming from products like Reels and our investments in AI," Mark Zuckerberg, Meta founder and CEO said in a press release following the announcement of the latest results. "We're putting increased energy and focus around our key company priorities that unlock both near and long term opportunities for Meta and the people and businesses that use our services," Zuckerberg added. Q3 2022 projections David Wehner, CFO of Meta: "We expect third quarter 2022 total revenue to be in the range of $26-28.5 billion. This outlook reflects a continuation of the weak advertising demand environment we experienced throughout the second quarter, which we believe is being driven by broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
We also anticipate third quarter Reality Labs revenue to be lower than second quarter revenue. Our guidance assumes foreign currency will be an approximately 6% headwind to year-over-year total revenue growth in the third quarter, based on current exchange rates." Meta Platforms (META) chart* *Meta Platforms (META) is displayed as Facebook Inc. (FB) on the GO Markets MetaTrader 5 platform Share price of Meta was up by 6.55% at the closing bell on Wednesday, trading at $169.32 per share. The stock fell by around 3% in the after-hours trading.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 Month +1.76% 3 Month -4.64% Year-to-date -50.40% 1 Year -55.31% Meta Platforms price targets Keybanc $190 Mizuho $250 Rosenblatt $181 Deutsche Bank $235 Morgan Stanley $280 Credit Suisse $245 Citigroup $270 Cowen & Co. 275 Meta Platforms is the 11 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $451.42 billion. You can trade Meta Platforms (META) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Meta Platforms, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The S&P 500 has been battered and bruised in one of the worst first half of the years in history. However, there are some signs that it may be turning. A short term long buying opportunity on the SPY looks to be apparent.
With the recent bullish sentiment due to the market believing that much of the forecast slowing growth and interest rate hikes have been prices into the market already. The trading opportunity is a technical breakout of a wedge pattern on the daily chart. Firstly it is important to recognise that the S&P500 is still in a longer term down trend.
This can be seen on the chart below. Since December 2021 the SPX has been in a downward channel making a series of lower highs and lower lows. Therefore it is important to understand that this opportunity will be against the longer general trend of the market.
The Chart On the chart the wedge at the bottom of the channel has broken to the upside. Without this break it could’ve been possible that this would've formed into a bear flag. However on the contrary, it looks to have developed into a reversal pattern, as the price has coiled.
Furthermore, and importantly, the price has broken above the 50 day average. This is also supported by the MACD. The MACD is not just showing a crossover.
To add support to the reversal, the MACD is showing a double bottom pattern of exhaustion as it looks to break over the zero line for the first time since April. A conservative target would be the convergence of the next level of resistance and also the top line of the channel. This is a 4100 target.
If the index can break through 4100 level and continue to rise to 4230. As stated previously the second move up will likely face a large amount of resistance as it is fighting the general trend and against a fairly strong resistance point.
The Australian dollar has begun the week relatively strongly after gaining some momentum from RBA's most recent meeting. The board pushed across quite a hawkish sentiment sparking the rise in the AUD. They found that the current slowing growth across the market and global sphere created that was “becoming skewed to the downside.” The board expressed their concern about the economic activity in China, particularly with the threat of Covid 19.
With lockdowns and a strict covid policy, the threat remains a key factor in the speed of growth on the mainland. Whilst overall business activity improved through May and likely June as well, recent lockdowns have the potential to pull back these gains. The low unemployment signalled Australia’s robustness and strength with record high participation rates in the economy.
Violent weather events like the floods in NSW and the Russian and Ukraine crisis also further added strain on the supply driving up prices and increasing the price of goods. Non-labour inputs also rose in price contributing further to inflation. The members did note the prices for base metals had begun to ease as recession fears had grown.
In addition, declining house prices and clearance rates as a sign that the speed of inflation is potentially slowing, however, they still expect inflation to continue rising for the remainder of 2022. Ultimately the members of the board agreed to increase the cash rate by 50 basis points instead of the alternative of 25 points. With particular emphasis on the strong labour market, the need to bring inflation under control trumped the need for stronger growth.
In response to the release of the minutes, the AUDUSD saw a little rise higher. After sitting near its 52-week lows at $0.6681 in recent weeks, the minutes provided a much-needed push. The price of the AUDUSD currently sits at $0.6845 which is its prior support level and has now become a level of resistance.
If the AUDUSD can push through this level the next resistance point is at $0.6967. As the market is still dealing with unprecedented global inflationary figures, it remains risky to go against the USD, however with effective risk management this risk can be mitigated.
Recent History The USD has been on a tear in recent months as volatile market conditions have sent the currency rocketing. Inflationary pressures and recession fears have seen investors turn to the USD whilst at the same time taking off risk from the AUD. The AUD's drop has also been further is largely due to a decrease in the price of commodities such as Iron Ore, Brent Crude, Wheat, and other key resources that rive much of the Australian economy.
In addition, the AUD is seen as a risk currency. This means that the currency performs well when the economy is growing and the market is bullish and conversely suffers during times of volatility and slowed growth. There has been some positive price action to indicate that a reversal in the AUDUSD may be imminent.
Technical Analysis From a long-term perspective, the weekly chart shows that going back since 2015 the AUDUSD has been trading in a relatively stable range between approximately $0.6680 and $0.8126. The one exception to this was the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic which acted as a ‘Black Swan’ type of event towards the pair and the wider market, (A). This caused a mass panic and a subsequent sell off the AUDUSD.
Once the initial panic began to subside the pair recovered and was able to recover back into the range. It is interesting to note that over the last few years the pair has reverted to its 50-week moving average, after aggressive moves in either direction. In recent weeks, a reversal does appear to be emerging.
The candlesticks also support this by showing a red hammer candle followed by a relatively strong green candle indicating potential exhaustion, (B). Looking closely at the daily chart can provide a few more targets in terms of potential price targets. The next most reasonable price target could be the 50-day moving average which is also doubles as the next level of resistance at $0.6970.
If the price is able to break through this point, then it may go further target the 200 Day average of $0.7190. However, it will likely have to soak up a fair amount of selling pressure. Ultimately the strength of this pair will largely depend on how accurately the market is pricing in inflation and a recession.
If the selloff in equities has maxed out, then it may positively effect the direction of the AUDUSD. However, if there is more pain to come then the pair may sell further down.
Oil has seen its first real slip up in price since March. The commodity had been running on the back of high inflation and supply issues stemming from the Russian and Ukraine crisis. During the run Oil peaked at $137 a barrel before entering a period of consolidation.
The recent catalyst for the drop was OPEC announcing that 2023 would likely result in lower demand for Oil. In addition, the threat of Chinese lockdowns is once again rearing its ugly head, adding to the woes. Furthermore, there have been discussion in recent days and week with the President of the USA, Joe Biden pushing for an increase in production.
The price has now fallen out of the wedge and is testing the support level. A strong USD Oil historically moves inversely to the USD. This is because oil is priced in US dollars.
Therefore, when the US dollar is strong fewer US dollars are required to buy a barrel of oil. Conversely, when the USD is weak, more USD is required, increasing the price of Oil. Consequently, with the USD being as strong as it is currently, the price of oil had to at some point fall.
Slowing Growth A recession could be a strong driver for a dip in the price of oil as negative growth has reduces the demand for commodities. Growing economies require Oil and other commodities to develop their infrastructure. Therefore, a recession will likely lead to less manufacturing and less infrastructure development due to a reduction in demand.
Technical Analysis The price of Brent is approaching an important area of support. It can be observed that the price of Brent has broken down from its wedge pattern and following back into the longer-term trend. The price is sitting on its short-term support level of $97.
This level is also of extra importance because it also doubles as the 200-day average. It can therefore be expected that there will be a great deal of volume traded near this zone and that to break through it will require a great deal of selling pressure.
It was a monumental year for two of the biggest electric car makers – Tesla and NIO in 2020. The stocks of both companies rose significantly over the last 12 months with NIO gaining over 1000% and Tesla by over 350% - reaching new record highs. With such gains, both companies have attracted significant public interest and a lot of investors have been keeping a close eye on both of the company’s progress.
But recently, we have seen a bump in the road for both companies with the share price of NIO, Tesla, and other electric car makers dropping, causing concern for the investors. But should this be a concern or an opportunity for investors? I think there would be two sides, but I guess most investors would look at it as an opportunity, seeing that the share price has dropped despite the future prospects for both companies.
There were a lot of doubters for Tesla in its early days when Elon Musk’s company was burning through cash each day, but that hasn’t stopped the company evolve into what it is today and at one point making Musk the richest person in the world. Also – the future of the world is green. A lot of countries around the world have already banned the sale of new diesel and petrol cars from 2030 onwards.
However, I think the world is still some way away from being ready for most people to own an electric car, especially from the infrastructure perspective. Most people would probably think that you will need to charge your electric car at a charging station (or at home) and wait hours for it to be done - which in some cases will probably be true. However, the infrastructure for electric cars must be more advanced than that.
We live in a world where we expect everything straight away and the same will happen with charging electric cars - that is why we are seeing companies working on battery swap stations which will make the process quick and easy. The battery in electric cars has long-range and will probably increase over time. For example, NIO’s model ET7 has a battery range of around 621 miles (around 1,000 km).
This means you could drive from London to Paris and back with the same battery charge (the quickest route from London to Paris is 292.3 miles according to Google Maps). But with all the positives, there are and will be challenges for the electric car manufacturers. This week NIO announced that the global chip shortage will have an impact on their car production in the second quarter of the year.
They highlighted that the shortage of semiconductors and batteries will mean that the company will have to cut its production capacity from 10,000 to 7,500 vehicles. The share price of NIO have fallen by over 25% in the last month, trading at around $42 per share. Tesla shares have also seen a drop in the last month, down by 20% - trading at $677 per share.
You can trade Tesla (TSLA) and NIO (NIO) and many other stocks from the ASX, NYSE, and the NASDAQ with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information. Capital at risk.