Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Pasar minyak memiliki kebiasaan terlihat tenang tepat sebelum berhenti diselesaikan. Itulah penyiapannya sekarang.
Lalu lintas melalui Selat Hormuz telah menurun tajam karena konflik di sekitar Iran semakin intensif, dan lebih banyak kapal menjadi gelap dengan mematikan AIS, atau Sistem Identifikasi Otomatis, sinyal yang biasanya menunjukkan ke mana kapal bergerak. Hormuz bukan hanya jalur pelayaran lainnya. Ini adalah salah satu titik henti energi terpenting di dunia, jadi ketika visibilitas mulai menghilang, risiko pasokan bergerak kembali ke pusat percakapan.
Mengapa ini penting sekarang
Ini penting karena beberapa alasan.
Langkah judul adalah satu hal. Implikasi pasar adalah hal lain. Minyak bukan hanya tentang berapa banyak barel yang ada, melainkan juga tentang apakah barel itu dapat bergerak, siapa yang bersedia mengasuransikan mereka, berapa lama pembeli siap menunggu dan berapa banyak risiko ekstra yang dirasakan pedagang untuk menentukan harga.
Saat ini, tiga hal bertabrakan sekaligus: pengiriman yang terganggu, diplomasi yang rapuh dan pasar yang sudah sangat condong ke satu arah. Kombinasi itu dapat membuat Brent bergerak lebih cepat daripada yang disarankan oleh fundamental saja.
Apa yang mendorong pergerakan
1 Visibilitas pasokan memburuk
Pengemudi pertama sederhana. Pasar bisa melihat lebih sedikit, dan itu cenderung membuatnya lebih gugup.
Transit melalui Hormuz telah turun tajam, sementara porsi lalu lintas yang terus meningkat melibatkan kapal-kapal yang tidak lagi menyiarkan sinyal pelacakan standar. Dalam bahasa Inggris sederhana, lebih sedikit kapal yang bergerak secara normal melalui koridor kritis, dan lebih banyak aktivitas menjadi lebih sulit untuk dilacak. Itu tidak secara otomatis berarti pasokan akan runtuh. Tapi itu berarti ketidakpastian meningkat.
2 Penyangga penyimpanan Iran mungkin terbatas
Penggerak kedua adalah kendala ekspor dan penyimpanan Iran.
Kapasitas penyimpanan darat diperkirakan sekitar 40 juta barel, dan pasar mengamati apa yang digambarkan oleh beberapa orang sebagai garis merah 16 hari. Itulah titik di mana gangguan ekspor yang berkepanjangan dapat mulai memaksa pemotongan produksi untuk menghindari kerusakan waduk. Untuk pembaca yang lebih baru, takeaway-nya mudah. Jika minyak tidak dapat meninggalkan penyimpanan cukup lama, masalahnya mungkin berhenti tentang ekspor yang tertunda dan mulai menjadi masalah pasokan yang sebenarnya.
3 Penentuan posisi bisa memperkuat gerakan
Penggerak ketiga adalah penentuan posisi, yang hanya singkatan pasar untuk bagaimana pedagang sudah diatur sebelum langkah berikutnya terjadi.
Dalam hal ini, posisi minyak mentah spekulatif terlihat sangat sepihak. Itu penting karena ketika pasar condong terlalu jauh ke satu arah, tidak perlu banyak untuk memicu penyesuaian yang tajam. Guncangan geopolitik baru dapat memaksa pedagang untuk bergerak cepat, dan begitu itu dimulai, harga bisa berjalan lebih keras daripada yang bisa dibenarkan oleh berita yang mendasarinya saja.
Mengapa pasar peduli
Kejutan minyak jarang tetap terkendali di pasar energi.
Harga minyak mentah yang lebih tinggi dapat mulai muncul dalam pengiriman, manufaktur, dan tagihan energi rumah tangga. Itu berarti ekspektasi inflasi dapat mulai merayap lebih tinggi lagi. Bank sentral sudah berusaha mengelola keseimbangan yang sulit antara inflasi yang lengket dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lembut, sehingga minyak yang lebih tinggi dapat membuat pekerjaan itu lebih sulit.
Dan ini bukan hanya cerita tentang produsen minyak yang mendapatkan tumpangan. Maskapai penerbangan, perusahaan transportasi, dan bisnis sensitif bahan bakar lainnya dapat berada di bawah tekanan dengan cepat ketika biaya energi meningkat. Pasar ekuitas yang lebih luas mungkin juga harus memikirkan kembali prospek kebijakan jika minyak yang lebih tinggi membuat inflasi lebih kuat dari yang diharapkan.
Efek riak jauh melampaui minyak
Ada juga sudut mata uang, dan itu kurang mudah daripada yang terlihat pertama kali.
Mata uang terkait komoditas seperti dolar Australia sering mendapat dukungan ketika harga bahan baku naik. Tetapi hubungan itu tidak otomatis. Jika minyak naik karena permintaan global membaik, itu bisa membantu. Jika naik karena risiko geopolitik melonjak, pasar dapat beralih ke mode risk-off sebagai gantinya, dan itu dapat membebani dolar Australia bahkan ketika harga komoditas naik.
Itulah yang membuat gerakan semacam ini lebih menarik daripada yang terlihat pada pandangan pertama. Reli minyak yang sama dapat mendukung satu bagian pasar sambil memberi tekanan pada yang lain.
Aset dan nama dalam bingkai
Minyak mentah Brent tetap menjadi bacaan paling jelas tentang risiko pasokan yang luas. Jika pedagang menginginkan ekspresi paling bersih dari berita utama, ini biasanya tempat mereka melihat terlebih dahulu.
- ExxonMobil adalah salah satu nama yang lebih jelas dalam bingkai. Harga minyak yang lebih tinggi dapat mendukung realisasi harga jual dan momentum pendapatan jangka pendek, meskipun tidak pernah sesederhana minyak naik, stok naik. Biaya, bauran produksi, dan sentimen yang lebih luas masih penting.
- BerikutnyaEnergi menambahkan lapisan lain. Cerita ini bukan hanya tentang bahan bakar fosil. Ketika keamanan energi menjadi perhatian yang lebih besar, kasus ketahanan listrik domestik, investasi grid dan pembangkit alternatif dapat menguat juga.
- AUD/USD adalah pasar lain yang layak diperhatikan. Australia terkait erat dengan siklus komoditas, sehingga harga bahan baku yang lebih kuat terkadang dapat mendukung mata uang. Tetapi jika pasar bereaksi lebih terhadap ketakutan daripada pertumbuhan, angin belakang yang biasa itu mungkin tidak bertahan.
Untuk pembaca yang lebih baru, poin kuncinya adalah bahwa pergerakan minyak tidak menyebar melalui pasar dalam garis yang rapi dan dapat diprediksi. Mereka bergelombang ke luar secara tidak merata, membantu beberapa aset, menekan yang lain dan terkadang melakukan keduanya pada saat yang bersamaan.
Apa yang bisa salah
Narasi yang kuat tidak sama dengan perdagangan satu arah.
Gencatan senjata dapat menstabilkan arus pengiriman lebih cepat dari yang diharapkan. OPEC+dapat mengimbangi beberapa keketatan dengan mengangkat produksi. Data permintaan dari China bisa mengecewakan, mengalihkan fokus kembali ke konsumsi yang lemah daripada pasokan yang terbatas. Dan jika premi geopolitik memudar, minyak bisa mundur lebih cepat daripada yang ditunjukkan oleh suasana saat ini.
Untuk pembaca yang lebih baru, takeaway-nya sederhana. Reli minyak bisa menjadi nyata tanpa permanen. Sebuah langkah dapat dibenarkan dalam jangka pendek oleh risiko gangguan, kemudian berbalik dengan cepat jika risiko tersebut mereda atau jika permintaan melunak.
Pasar tidak lagi menetapkan harga minyak secara terpisah. Ini adalah visibilitas harga, keamanan transportasi dan risiko gangguan pasokan tumpah ke inflasi, mata uang, dan sentimen risiko yang lebih luas.
Itulah mengapa Hormuz penting, bahkan bagi pembaca yang tidak pernah memperdagangkan satu barel minyak mentah sendiri.
On the back of what has been a pretty punishing month for Oil, now trading below $70 a barrel for WTI crude, we’re going to take a look at Oil, the fundamental drivers behind the price swings and what the future could hold for the Oil markets. For the sake of clarity, this article will be looking exclusively at WTI Crude. So what drove the close to 11% decline in Oil?
What has stalled fund managers and market voices calling for oil to revisit $100 a barrel? Well, mostly it is a confluence of reasons, some rooted in basic economics and one fear-based reaction on the back of the “stock market rout” as it has been dubbed. Now although we are going to be focusing on some of the reasons for this decline, these are not specific to this sell-off alone, these are fundamental drivers in the price of Oil markets.
WTI Crude December Contract - October sell of from $76.72 to low of $68.53 One of the reasons for the sell-off is that of a supply jump. U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 22.3 million barrels, which is the most substantial increase since 2015. This factor comes down to basic economics.
With a boost in supply and the more something is readily available; naturally, the associated value will be lower, and this is what is weighing here. However, the story doesn't end there. It can also provide an insight into how the general populous is leaning as an increase in stockpiles means that the current supply level is too much for current demand.
For example, it could potentially be an indicator in sentiment, companies shifting to renewables, and more and more people moving to electric vehicles, etc. All of these factors would impact the appetite for oil which then leads to an oversupply, subsequently causing a tumble in price as we've seen of late. One of the other factors for Crude also stems from this balancing act of supply and demand.
With Crude spiking to highs not long seen, it sparked some fear that the high prices would weigh on demand for the asset, causing investors to be more cautious and to close out long positions. Since then both OPEC and the International Energy Agency have both revised down the oil growth forecasts. WTI December Contract and S&P Overlay - During the "stock rout" The so-called “stock market rout” also took its toll on the Oil price, with investors dumping risk assets and moving into safe-haven assets, i.e., bonds, gold, etc. this helped to perpetuate Crude’s slide and saw it shed a further 5% of its value.
So, with WTI Crude oil currently, at the time or writing sitting at lows of $66.70 a barrel, what lies ahead for Oil? With continued sell-offs seen in equities markets and steadily more risk-off sentiment throughout the market, we could continue to see Oil slide. However, as markets tend to jump between risk-on & risk-off on a daily, sometimes more frequent basis, we can expect to see plenty of activity in the Oil market, and this will undoubtedly be one of our watchlist staples.
For more information or any questions feel free to reach out to me on twitter This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives, including Oil Commodity trading, carries a high level of risk.
The Buraeu of Labor Statistics have released the latest jobs report for September. Let’s take a look at the latest numbers. The total non-farm payroll employment increased by 134,000, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today versus the forecast of 185,000. Biggest job gains were in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing. The unemployment rate declined by 0.2% to 3.7% in September better than the forecast of 3.8%.
Worth pointing out that the latest unemployment rate is the lowest level for 49 years. The number of unemployed people decreased by 270,000 to 6 million. Average hourly earnings dropped from 2.9% to 2.8% as anticipated.
The reaction Initially we saw some weakness in the US dollar as the latest figures were released, however, since then the Dollar has recovered some losses. Average hourly earnings dropped from 2.9% to 2.8% as anticipated. USD/JPY Hourly Chart GBP/USD Hourly Chart EUR/USD Hourly Chart This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.
They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Bloomberg, Go Markets MT4
Markets Eager To Resume As the Easter holidays fade, we quickly saw a market resurgence of traders looking to resume normality. Perhaps one of the more stand-out movers during today's London session was none other than the Pound Aussie cross (GBPAUD). Following the Reserve Bank of Australia's announcement to hold interest rates at 0.1%, the recently stronger Pound took a tumble, and we'll be looking at where the price may end up.
A Sizeable Move Since early hours, the price of GBPAUD declined by 1.05% or roughly 200 pips. Considering the Average True Range (ATR) tends to sit around 100-120 pips, it's not something to ignore. Is this just a one-off move, or is something larger happening here?
RBA Rates On Hold Until 2025 Perhaps the overriding factor that spiked AUD demand today is the dovish comments made by the RBA that suggest they'll aim to keep the current rates on hold until 2025. In an uncertain environment mainly consisting of negative rates worldwide, the ability to offer stability, however small, speaks volumes. But is it enough to stave off economic risks associated with the pandemic?
Probably not. Risky Business The Australian currency will remain risk-sensitive, and with Covid-19 cases continuing to rise throughout Europe and America, demand for the 'Aussie' will potentially struggle to find enough demand. By contrast, the Pound looks to build on vaccine success and hopefully reignite the economy in June/July by further easing lockdowns.
The potential for GBPAUD to turn bullish longer-term looks more probable at this stage. The idea that the pair could resume an upward trajectory is backed up by some relatively strong technical signals on both the hourly and daily Ichimoku charts listed below. Ichimoku Hourly Chart Analysis Beginning with the hourly, we can see today's bearish price action is heading towards the previous weekly pivot point of 1.8010 before finding some support.
Despite the decisive move to the downside, now that the pair found some short-term support, we'd generally expect some corrective price behavior during the upcoming sessions. Notice the RSI indicator (Relative Strength Index) is also in heavily oversold territory, further fueling speculation to the upside. The current weekly pivot point of 1.8145 makes an attractive potential target or a consideration for resistance.
Ichimoku Daily Chart Analysis The daily Ichimoku chart helps put today's price moves into perspective, further highlighting the bullish indicators in play. Note, the current price action is still trading well above the cloud, as is the lagging span (purple line). The thickness of the cloud also suggests plenty of support above 1.80 levels.
Remaining Tentatively Bullish So despite the sudden bearish activity seen today, the outlook for GBPAUD remains bullish across multiple timeframes, not accounting for any new Covid-19 issues that may emerge. Sources: Go Markets, Meta Trader 5, TradingView, Bloomberg
GBPCAD – Hourly Individually, both the British Pound and the Canadian Dollar have surged in recent trading sessions, appearing relatively strong against their peers in the short-term. With the latest fundamental data suggesting both currencies have benefited from similar economic drivers, it could be tough to navigate a directional bias for GBPCAD, as we'll discuss in today's Chart of The Day. Firstly, as the markets come to grip the idea that the Bank of England will seek to avoid cutting interest rates into negative territory, the Pound should continue to gather momentum along with positive reports of vaccine rollouts around the country.
Similarly, the Bank of Canada has also dismissed talks of negative rates and reaps the rewards of recent steadiness in global oil prices. At around $58 per barrel, we're seeing the highest oil prices in just over a year. And with further potential production cuts earmarked for Saudi Arabia, the commodity-sensitive CAD could see additional gains.
Technically speaking, Sterling does appear to have the slight upper hand from a longer-term trend perspective. However, in the short-term, the hourly chart shown looks bearish. We might be witnessing more corrective moves or some profit-taking activity following last week's sharp advance to higher levels instead of specific CAD demand.
This idea neatly ties in with the recent bearish divergence pattern highlighted on the RSI indicator above. A further sell-off on the hourly could target the current weekly pivot point (gold line), located at 1.7475. Looking at the price action during the past few weeks, it has a habit of utilising weekly pivots as critical support areas.
For example, not only did GBPCAD test last week's pivot of 1.7500 multiple times, but it even touched January's final pivot with pinpoint accuracy, reaching exactly 1.7350 before rebounding upwards. To the upside, the pair continues to find resistance around the early 1.76 regions, but as mentioned before, these trends display a more bullish bias when viewed longer-term. So despite all the factors contributing to a favourable condition for the Canadian Dollar, the Pound edges ahead in dominance as 2021's top-performing G10 currency thus far.
Given its momentum, any weakness is probably likely to be viewed as temporary, with traders eyeing the dips in price as possible opportunities to go long. Sources: Go Markets, Meta Trader 5, TradingView, Bloomberg
To begin the week, I thought we'd do something a little bit different. We have taken the current ten-year challenge sweeping social media and tried to apply it to a brief technical analysis summary of the major FX pairs. Where were they trading in early 2009?
And where are they now? Judging by the list below, it would seem gold wins the gold medal regarding overall performance. The following summaries will delve further into each trading pair.
EURUSD Even though current price action is trading just above the 200 MA suggesting the longer-term trend is bullish, the price action since 2009 provides more significant evidence of a strong downtrend in place, most notably the lower highs witnessed in 2009, 2011, 2014 and last year respectively. Following the rather dull consolidative period between 2015 to 2017, the Euro-Dollar pair has shown a new lease of life and has found the 1.25 level to play a significant role once again. At current levels though, the danger here is that we could slip back into the familiar rangebound territory if the supportive structure seen at 1.14 fails to contain sellers going forward.
The highlighted head and shoulders pattern might be a precursor to a EURUSD reversal back towards the 1.05 lows. GBPUSD Surprisingly, only a 5% difference in value since this time ten years ago. We see mostly rangebound moves since 2009, with the Brexit catalyst in 2016 providing fuel for an extended step down in price.
The recovery from 2017 to the beginning of 2018 may give a clue to future movements within the pair. Notice how the price has respected the 200 MA in recent years, it would appear the region of 1.35 could be a potential barrier if tested, resulting in a continuation of the longer-term downtrend. In this scenario, the previous 1.20 support is a target worth considering.
USDJPY In 2009 the Dollar-Yen pairing appeared somewhat heavy towards the downside. However, we've seen a steady recovery since the 2012 lows, and a validated bullish trendline is currently in play. In December last year, price attempted a sharp move down to 104 levels but was quickly rejected, resulting in further Dollar strength.
Key areas to note are the Fibonacci retracements of the 2015 high including the 50% level which has provided strong support around 100.00 and the 23.6% retracement at 113.80 which continues to act as tough resistance. Perhaps we'll see another rally north to re-test 113.80 longer-term, especially when RSI (Relative Strength Index) levels are looking oversold. AUDUSD Like a boomerang that's been thrown and come back, the Aussie has returned to where it began in 2009 following some large swings higher.
Currently, in a residual downtrend, it's difficult to see where this pair may up longer-term, but the key takeaway over the last decade would be the importance of the 0.70 zone regarding support and resistance levels. USDCAD It is also a case of 'Back To The Future' for the Loonie. Despite some significant price moves over time, current levels are almost identical to those seen this time ten years ago.
Technically still within a longer-term uptrend, price action has maintained a presence around the 200 MA and has produced a textbook series of higher highs and lower lows since mid-2017. It is also worth pointing out that the 50% retracement level near the 1.20 mark has provided strong support for the pair in both 2015 and 2017. The future outlook appears to be indecisive moves heading sideways.
USDCHF Not too much change for the Swissie either since 2009. Following the SNB crisis in 2015, price action has been practically non-existent with 1.03 acting as somewhat of a ceiling slowly squeezing the price into submission. We could either see a massive breakout after this extended consolidation phase or perhaps more of the same longer-term.
NZDUSD An impressive 36% gain since 2009. Longer-term we have settled around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the Jun 2014 high. Current levels also coincide with the 200 Moving Average which price action has failed to break above in recent years convincingly.
There is still a slight bias to the downside, and the previous support level of 0.62 could be a potential target should the Kiwi Dollar continue to grind lower. XAUUSD An impressive price rise in the last decade for the precious metal, and similar to Kiwi Dollar, current price action is sitting around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the August 2011 high. The overall longer-term trend has been sideways since 2013 with no clear directional bias in sight.
The only thing worth noting here is the current RSI situation which appears overbought and could spell some bearish activity in the weeks and months ahead. This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.
Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk. For more resource on Forex trading check out our Forex Trading For Beginners introduction, Forex Trading Courses, open a Forex Demo Account or open a live Forex Trading Account. Sources: Go Markets MetaTrader, Google, Datawrapper, Tradingview.
Facebook has had a fair share of negative news headlines in recent times with lawsuits filed against the company and calls to improve the monitoring of information that is posted on the social media platform. Despite that, the share price of Facebook hit an all-time high this week after trading at above $314 per share for the first time during the trading day on Thursday. With the negative headlines, there is also a level of optimism about the future of the company with revenue numbers expected to increase in 2021.
Q4 2020– revenue growth Last year, the company saw a substantial slowdown in revenue growth in Q2 due to the COVID-19 pandemic when it saw a significant reduction in its advertising side of the business. However, Q4 revenue rose by 33% year-over-year, a significant increase from 22% growth in Q3 and 11% in Q2. ''This was a strong quarter for our business, as the acceleration of online commerce we’ve seen during the pandemic continued into the holiday season. Our total revenue for Q4 was $28.1 billion, which is a 33% year-over-year increase.
Our fastest growth rate in over two years. After a really difficult year for so many businesses, this holiday period was important. And while many businesses are still struggling, the good news is that Q4 was stronger than expected for retail'', Sheryl Sandberg, Facebook’s COO explained Q4 performance during its earning call back in January.
The share price is up by around 14% since the beginning of the year. Facebook – YTD Source: TradingView Price target increase Deutsche Bank recently increased their price target for Facebook from $355 to $385 and maintained a ''buy'' rating for the social media giant following positive feedback from advertisers and Mark Zuckerberg’s positive comments about more e-commerce moving onto the platform. Deutsche Bank data checks show that advertisers have continued to spend on the platform in Q1 of 2021.
Facebook report Q1 2021 earnings on 28 th April. You can trade Facebook (FB) and many other stocks from the ASX, NYSE, and the NASDAQ with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information.
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