Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Pasar minyak memiliki kebiasaan terlihat tenang tepat sebelum berhenti diselesaikan. Itulah penyiapannya sekarang.
Lalu lintas melalui Selat Hormuz telah menurun tajam karena konflik di sekitar Iran semakin intensif, dan lebih banyak kapal menjadi gelap dengan mematikan AIS, atau Sistem Identifikasi Otomatis, sinyal yang biasanya menunjukkan ke mana kapal bergerak. Hormuz bukan hanya jalur pelayaran lainnya. Ini adalah salah satu titik henti energi terpenting di dunia, jadi ketika visibilitas mulai menghilang, risiko pasokan bergerak kembali ke pusat percakapan.
Mengapa ini penting sekarang
Ini penting karena beberapa alasan.
Langkah judul adalah satu hal. Implikasi pasar adalah hal lain. Minyak bukan hanya tentang berapa banyak barel yang ada, melainkan juga tentang apakah barel itu dapat bergerak, siapa yang bersedia mengasuransikan mereka, berapa lama pembeli siap menunggu dan berapa banyak risiko ekstra yang dirasakan pedagang untuk menentukan harga.
Saat ini, tiga hal bertabrakan sekaligus: pengiriman yang terganggu, diplomasi yang rapuh dan pasar yang sudah sangat condong ke satu arah. Kombinasi itu dapat membuat Brent bergerak lebih cepat daripada yang disarankan oleh fundamental saja.
Apa yang mendorong pergerakan
1 Visibilitas pasokan memburuk
Pengemudi pertama sederhana. Pasar bisa melihat lebih sedikit, dan itu cenderung membuatnya lebih gugup.
Transit melalui Hormuz telah turun tajam, sementara porsi lalu lintas yang terus meningkat melibatkan kapal-kapal yang tidak lagi menyiarkan sinyal pelacakan standar. Dalam bahasa Inggris sederhana, lebih sedikit kapal yang bergerak secara normal melalui koridor kritis, dan lebih banyak aktivitas menjadi lebih sulit untuk dilacak. Itu tidak secara otomatis berarti pasokan akan runtuh. Tapi itu berarti ketidakpastian meningkat.
2 Penyangga penyimpanan Iran mungkin terbatas
Penggerak kedua adalah kendala ekspor dan penyimpanan Iran.
Kapasitas penyimpanan darat diperkirakan sekitar 40 juta barel, dan pasar mengamati apa yang digambarkan oleh beberapa orang sebagai garis merah 16 hari. Itulah titik di mana gangguan ekspor yang berkepanjangan dapat mulai memaksa pemotongan produksi untuk menghindari kerusakan waduk. Untuk pembaca yang lebih baru, takeaway-nya mudah. Jika minyak tidak dapat meninggalkan penyimpanan cukup lama, masalahnya mungkin berhenti tentang ekspor yang tertunda dan mulai menjadi masalah pasokan yang sebenarnya.
3 Penentuan posisi bisa memperkuat gerakan
Penggerak ketiga adalah penentuan posisi, yang hanya singkatan pasar untuk bagaimana pedagang sudah diatur sebelum langkah berikutnya terjadi.
Dalam hal ini, posisi minyak mentah spekulatif terlihat sangat sepihak. Itu penting karena ketika pasar condong terlalu jauh ke satu arah, tidak perlu banyak untuk memicu penyesuaian yang tajam. Guncangan geopolitik baru dapat memaksa pedagang untuk bergerak cepat, dan begitu itu dimulai, harga bisa berjalan lebih keras daripada yang bisa dibenarkan oleh berita yang mendasarinya saja.
Mengapa pasar peduli
Kejutan minyak jarang tetap terkendali di pasar energi.
Harga minyak mentah yang lebih tinggi dapat mulai muncul dalam pengiriman, manufaktur, dan tagihan energi rumah tangga. Itu berarti ekspektasi inflasi dapat mulai merayap lebih tinggi lagi. Bank sentral sudah berusaha mengelola keseimbangan yang sulit antara inflasi yang lengket dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lembut, sehingga minyak yang lebih tinggi dapat membuat pekerjaan itu lebih sulit.
Dan ini bukan hanya cerita tentang produsen minyak yang mendapatkan tumpangan. Maskapai penerbangan, perusahaan transportasi, dan bisnis sensitif bahan bakar lainnya dapat berada di bawah tekanan dengan cepat ketika biaya energi meningkat. Pasar ekuitas yang lebih luas mungkin juga harus memikirkan kembali prospek kebijakan jika minyak yang lebih tinggi membuat inflasi lebih kuat dari yang diharapkan.
Efek riak jauh melampaui minyak
Ada juga sudut mata uang, dan itu kurang mudah daripada yang terlihat pertama kali.
Mata uang terkait komoditas seperti dolar Australia sering mendapat dukungan ketika harga bahan baku naik. Tetapi hubungan itu tidak otomatis. Jika minyak naik karena permintaan global membaik, itu bisa membantu. Jika naik karena risiko geopolitik melonjak, pasar dapat beralih ke mode risk-off sebagai gantinya, dan itu dapat membebani dolar Australia bahkan ketika harga komoditas naik.
Itulah yang membuat gerakan semacam ini lebih menarik daripada yang terlihat pada pandangan pertama. Reli minyak yang sama dapat mendukung satu bagian pasar sambil memberi tekanan pada yang lain.
Aset dan nama dalam bingkai
Minyak mentah Brent tetap menjadi bacaan paling jelas tentang risiko pasokan yang luas. Jika pedagang menginginkan ekspresi paling bersih dari berita utama, ini biasanya tempat mereka melihat terlebih dahulu.
- ExxonMobil adalah salah satu nama yang lebih jelas dalam bingkai. Harga minyak yang lebih tinggi dapat mendukung realisasi harga jual dan momentum pendapatan jangka pendek, meskipun tidak pernah sesederhana minyak naik, stok naik. Biaya, bauran produksi, dan sentimen yang lebih luas masih penting.
- BerikutnyaEnergi menambahkan lapisan lain. Cerita ini bukan hanya tentang bahan bakar fosil. Ketika keamanan energi menjadi perhatian yang lebih besar, kasus ketahanan listrik domestik, investasi grid dan pembangkit alternatif dapat menguat juga.
- AUD/USD adalah pasar lain yang layak diperhatikan. Australia terkait erat dengan siklus komoditas, sehingga harga bahan baku yang lebih kuat terkadang dapat mendukung mata uang. Tetapi jika pasar bereaksi lebih terhadap ketakutan daripada pertumbuhan, angin belakang yang biasa itu mungkin tidak bertahan.
Untuk pembaca yang lebih baru, poin kuncinya adalah bahwa pergerakan minyak tidak menyebar melalui pasar dalam garis yang rapi dan dapat diprediksi. Mereka bergelombang ke luar secara tidak merata, membantu beberapa aset, menekan yang lain dan terkadang melakukan keduanya pada saat yang bersamaan.
Apa yang bisa salah
Narasi yang kuat tidak sama dengan perdagangan satu arah.
Gencatan senjata dapat menstabilkan arus pengiriman lebih cepat dari yang diharapkan. OPEC+dapat mengimbangi beberapa keketatan dengan mengangkat produksi. Data permintaan dari China bisa mengecewakan, mengalihkan fokus kembali ke konsumsi yang lemah daripada pasokan yang terbatas. Dan jika premi geopolitik memudar, minyak bisa mundur lebih cepat daripada yang ditunjukkan oleh suasana saat ini.
Untuk pembaca yang lebih baru, takeaway-nya sederhana. Reli minyak bisa menjadi nyata tanpa permanen. Sebuah langkah dapat dibenarkan dalam jangka pendek oleh risiko gangguan, kemudian berbalik dengan cepat jika risiko tersebut mereda atau jika permintaan melunak.
Pasar tidak lagi menetapkan harga minyak secara terpisah. Ini adalah visibilitas harga, keamanan transportasi dan risiko gangguan pasokan tumpah ke inflasi, mata uang, dan sentimen risiko yang lebih luas.
Itulah mengapa Hormuz penting, bahkan bagi pembaca yang tidak pernah memperdagangkan satu barel minyak mentah sendiri.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported its Q4 earnings before the opening bell on Wall Street on Tuesday. Let’s take a closer look at how the pharmaceutical giant performed in the previous quarter. The company reported total revenue of $24.804 billion in Q4 (up by 10.4% from the same period in 2020), below analyst forecast of $25.276 billion.
Earnings per share at $2.13 a share in the previous quarter (up by 14.5%, pretty much in line with analyst forecast of $2.12 a share. Joaquin Duato, Chief Executive Officer commented on the Q4 and 2021 results: ''Our 2021 performance reflects continued strength across all segments of our business. Guided by Our Credo, I am honoured to assume the role of CEO, leading our global teams in continuing our work to deliver life-changing solutions to consumers, patients, and health care providers.'' ''Given our strong results, financial profile, and innovative pipeline we are well positioned for success in 2022 and beyond,'' Duato added.
Johnson & Johnson chart (Monthly) Share price trading higher following the latest results, up by around 2% during the trading day on Tuesday at $166.66 per share. Johnson & Johnson is the 12 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $438.19 billion. You can trade Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Johnson & Johnson, TradingView, GO Markets MT5, CompaniesMarketCap
Goldman Sachs reported its latest financial results for the previous quarter before the US market open on Tuesday. Let’s take a closer look at the key numbers. The company reported higher than expected revenue for Q4 2021 of $12.639 billion vs. $12.044 billion estimate.
Earnings per share (EPS) at $10.81 per share in Q4 2021, below Wall Street analyst expectations of $11.77 per share. In 2021, Goldman Sachs generated record net revenues of $59.34 billion, record net earnings of $21.64 billion and record diluted EPS of $59.45 – all significantly surpassing previous records. David Solomon, Chairman and CEO commented on last year’s performance: ''2021 was a record year for Goldman Sachs.
The firm’s extraordinary performance is a testament to the strength of our client franchise and people. Moving forward, our leadership team remains committed to growing Goldman Sachs, diversifying our businesses and delivering strong returns for shareholders.'' Goldman Sachs chart (1Y) Shares of Goldman tumbled on Tuesday following the latest results, down by around 7%. The stock is up by 19% in the last year at $350.60 per share.
Goldman Sachs is the 117 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $127.07 billion. You can trade Goldman Sachs (GS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Goldman Sachs, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap
Bank of America announced its 2021 Q4 financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Wednesday. World’s 2 nd largest bank reported total revenue of $22.06 billion, falling short of analyst estimate of $22.18 billion. Earnings per share at $0.82 a share in the previous quarter, above analyst forecast of $0.77 a share.
Chairman and CEO, Brian Moynihan commented on the latest results: "Our fourth-quarter results were driven by strong organic growth, record levels of digital engagement, and an improving economy. We grew loans by $51 billion and added $100 billion of deposits during the quarter, further strengthening our position as the leader in retail deposits." "We earned a record $32 billion in 2021, with every business line solidly contributing. In Consumer, we added millions of new credit card accounts and nearly a million net new checking accounts as we continued to demonstrate the value we provide through our physical and digital capabilities.
Wealth Management had record client flows and the strongest client acquisition numbers since before the pandemic. Investment Banking had its best year ever and Global Markets had its highest sales and trading revenue in a decade, led by record Equities performance as we invested in the business." "We also continued to support our communities, helping them address some of society’s biggest challenges, including the environment, the pandemic, racial equality and economic opportunity. I want to thank our talented teammates across the globe for all their work over the past year," he added.
Bank of America chart (1Y) Share price of Bank of America little changed during the trading day on Wednesday. The stock is up by 45% in the past year at $46.58 per share. Bank of America is the 20 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $383.21 billion.
You can trade Bank of America (BAC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Bank of America, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap
NIO Inc. (NIO) reported its latest delivery numbers for November on Wednesday, setting a new monthly following disappointing results in October. The Chinese electric vehicle company delivered 10,878 cars last month – an increase of 105.6% year-over-year. The deliveries in November consisted of: 2,683 ES8s – the company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV 4,713 ES6s – the company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV 3,482 EC6s – the company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV NIO has delivered a total of 80,940 cars in 2021 and 156,581 in total as of 30 th November, 2021.
NIO Inc. Chart (1Y) Shares of NIO were trading higher on Wednesday following the latest delivery numbers, up by around 2% on the day. The stock is down by 16.61% in the past year at $40.19 a share.
NIO is the 13 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $63.79 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information.
Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: NIO, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap
Last week, NIO announced that they have entered into a strategic agreement with Shell, the largest gasoline retailer in the world. The latest move is a boost for NIO to further establish themselves in the electric vehicle industry. The agreement includes plans to construct and operate battery charging and swapping facilities in China and Europe.
NIO and Shell plan to install 100 battery swapping stations in China by 2025 and start to construct and operate pilot stations in Europe from next year. Both companies will also explore collaboration opportunities in battery asset management, fleet management, membership system, home charging services, advanced battery charging and swapping technology development, and construction of charging facilities. William Li, Founder, Chairman, CEO of NIO commented on the agreement: ''The cooperation demonstrates Shell’s determination to accelerate the energy transition and commitment to contribute to sustainable development globally.
We believe that the cooperation between NIO and Shell will bring better services and experience to electric vehicle users worldwide.'' István Kapitány, global executive vice president of Shell Mobility said: "Decarbonization is a global challenge that requires broad-reaching, multi-faceted global solutions. This is the most exciting thing about our new partnership with NIO—the breadth of the collaboration and the value we can offer our EV customers together, both in Europe and in China. Together, we'll be working to improve every aspect of the EV experience.
This means we’ll offer Shell Recharge high-speed charging at NIO locations and make battery swap available at convenient Shell locations while also offering NIO customers our best home and business charging solutions." Shell has service stations in nearly 46,000 locations in 80 markets around the world. The company is planning to operate more than 500,000 electric vehicle charge points globally by 2025. NIO Inc.
Chart (1Y) Share price of NIO is down by 19.93% in the past year at $40.46 per share. NIO is the 12 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $63.20 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Click here for more information. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: NIO, Shell, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap
It’s set to be busy one over in the United States this week with some of the world’s largest companies, including Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and Alphabet due to report their Q1 earnings. Up first – Tesla. World’s largest electric vehicle maker reported their results after the closing bell on Monday.
Elon Musk’s Tesla reported total revenue of $10.39 billion in Q1 above analyst forecast of $10.29 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $0.93 above $0.78 expected. Net profit reached $438 million in Q1 – the highest quarterly number ever for the company. "In Q1, we achieved our highest ever vehicle production and deliveries.
This was in spite of multiple challenges, including seasonality, supply chain instability and the transition to the new Model S and Model X. Our GAAP net income reached $438M, and our non-GAAP net income surpassed $1B for the first time in our history." Earlier in the month, the company reported record delivery numbers with 184,800 vehicles delivered in the first 3 months of 2021 – a 109% improvement from Q1 in 2020. Tesla are planning a 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries in the next few years. "Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries.
In some years we may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021," Tesla said in a statement. "The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency and capacity and stability of the supply chain." Shares of Tesla trading lower following the latest numbers, down by 1.83% post-market after ending the trading day on Monday at $738.20 per share. Share price is up by over 4% year-to-date. Total market cap currently stands at over $722 billion, making it the 8 th largest company in the world.
Tesla Source: TradingView You can trade Tesla (TSLA) and many other stocks from the ASX, NYSE, and the NASDAQ with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.